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Post by domi on Jan 31, 2012 12:52:29 GMT -6
I did my own "fan-boy" analysis, and I figure that if the Jets expect to make the playoffs, they can lose no more than 9 games out of the next 32! Here's the analysis:Assumption: To make the playoffs, (based on last 4 years) a team will require between 94 - 96 points. Let's say 95 points is the magic number, get there and your in, don't get there and you are golfing in April. Numbers: Jets currently have 50pts. They have 32 games remaining; 16 at home, 16 on the road. Required points to make the playoffs from today: 45 points. That means winning more than 22 of the next 32 games. So if the Jets lose more than 9 games over the next 32 games, they are done  This means they need a winning percentage of about 72% over the next 32 games to win. Currently, their home winning record is 64%, while their away winning record is 36%. For a combined 50% winning record. Basically its unlikely for them to get into the playoffs. To do so, they would have to continously be on 4 game win-streaks with only 1 loss in between. So for us Jets fans: THEY'RE GONNA DO IT!  |
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Post by dkehler on Jan 31, 2012 13:05:19 GMT -6
I think someone did a similar analysis on HF and came to essentially the same conclusion as you did. In other words, you are probably right; we need to lose no more than approximately 9 games to have a shot. Sadly, I fear one of them is coming tonight.
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Post by trigger204 on Jan 31, 2012 13:12:05 GMT -6
I think someone did a similar analysis on HF and came to essentially the same conclusion as you did. In other words, you are probably right; we need to lose no more than approximately 9 games to have a shot. Sadly, I fear one of them is coming tonight. naw.. 2-1 Jets. |
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Post by IantheD on Jan 31, 2012 13:25:50 GMT -6
with a shortened bench again against Philly it's going to be tough. We couldn't even beat the Hurricanes!
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Post by gobombersgo on Jan 31, 2012 13:30:19 GMT -6
This was also very well documented in the Sun a couple of days ago. Pretty much came to the exact same conclusion.
Therefore - The Jets will not be making the playoffs this season!
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Post by Lions67 on Jan 31, 2012 14:01:00 GMT -6
tough task.
in order to achieve this goal, the Jets need to do a DRAMTIC transformation from what we have seen so far.
9 games eh?.....man.
looks like my prediction of them sneaking in to the playoffs may be just a pipe dream.
but...does this scenario take into account other teams tanking somewhat?.....
cuz i think we are gonna need some help here.
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Post by gobombersgo on Jan 31, 2012 14:03:45 GMT -6
There is a better chance of us dropping in the standing's 5 points into last then climbing 5 points into the playoffs IMO.
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Post by Grumpz on Jan 31, 2012 14:04:58 GMT -6
I did my own "fan-boy" analysis, and I figure that if the Jets expect to make the playoffs, they can lose no more than 9 games out of the next 32! Here's the analysis:Assumption: To make the playoffs, (based on last 4 years) a team will require between 94 - 96 points. Let's say 95 points is the magic number, get there and your in, don't get there and you are golfing in April. Numbers: Jets currently have 50pts. They have 32 games remaining; 16 at home, 16 on the road. Required points to make the playoffs from today: 45 points. That means winning more than 22 of the next 32 games. So if the Jets lose more than 9 games over the next 32 games, they are done This means they need a winning percentage of about 72% over the next 32 games to win. Currently, their home winning record is 64%, while their away winning record is 36%. For a combined 50% winning record. Basically its unlikely for them to get into the playoffs. To do so, they would have to continously be on 4 game win-streaks with only 1 loss in between. So for us Jets fans: THEY'RE GONNA DO IT! I can live with not making the playoffs. I can't live with giving up, and not fighting until the last whistle in the last game...ESPECIALLY if they tank just to get a better draft pick. |
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njw
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Post by njw on Jan 31, 2012 14:08:46 GMT -6
It's highly unlikely that we'll make the playoffs, but we do have the benefit of being able to get in by catching Florida and Washington, so we can also hope for a late-season slide from those teams. Here's a site that breaks down a team's chances at making the playoffs: www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Winnipeg.html |
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Post by NHLWinnipeg on Jan 31, 2012 14:10:03 GMT -6
Good analysis Domi. The fact is there is not much of a chance of the Jets making the playoffs. Never say never, but the numbers show it is very unlikely...I expect the Jets to be sellers at the deadline unless they put together a massive winning streak starting now...
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Post by jjmoohead on Jan 31, 2012 14:11:16 GMT -6
yeah i think the only thing that stops the 9 loses thing is the fact we are only 5 points out of 1st in our division. That could be all we need.
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Post by NHLWinnipeg on Jan 31, 2012 14:14:50 GMT -6
yeah i think the only thing that stops the 9 loses thing is the fact we are only 5 points out of 1st in our division. That could be all we need. true, if may be easier to win the division, but that will not be an easy task... Caps and Panthers are both 48 games and 55 points, the Jets are 50 games and 50 points...Washington has played better as of late... |
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Post by gobombersgo on Jan 31, 2012 14:37:16 GMT -6
yeah i think the only thing that stops the 9 loses thing is the fact we are only 5 points out of 1st in our division. That could be all we need. true, if may be easier to win the division, but that will not be an easy task... Caps and Panthers are both 48 games and 55 points, the Jets are 50 games and 50 points...Washington has played better as of late... We are more like minimum 7 points behind and possibly 9 nine points behind. VERY slim chance of making the ground up, but.... it's still a chance. |
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roo604
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Post by roo604 on Jan 31, 2012 14:46:23 GMT -6
true, if may be easier to win the division, but that will not be an easy task... Caps and Panthers are both 48 games and 55 points, the Jets are 50 games and 50 points...Washington has played better as of late... We are more like minimum 7 points behind and possibly 9 nine points behind. VERY slim chance of making the ground up, but.... it's still a chance. I thought you just eliminated us 3 posts ago saying we will not make the playoffs?!?! |
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Post by czdrummer1 on Jan 31, 2012 14:54:58 GMT -6
I figure if they go 20-10-2 they could have a decent shot. I don't see it happening though with all the injuries and the teams poor play as of late.
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