Couple disagreements with your rankings. I may be tempted to move Philadelphia up into the elite franchise list even though they aren't an original 6 franchise. That got just as good of fan support as chicago and boston and they pull in the same amount of revenue. I'd move Minnesota up to the tier 2 list even though they haven't won anything since they have such great fan support and its such a hockey state. I'd definately move Hartford/Carolina into the tier 3 list because of bad fan support in Hartford and not much better in Carolina.
I'd be tempted to move the islanders into the death list or tier 3 until Wang moves into the Barclays Center even though they won 4 cups. No way can they be Tier one with the type of fan support they currently receive. I'd also move Edmonton down the tear 2 even though its a great market just because of Rexall Place. Once a arena deal is struck i'd move them back up where you have them.
If you are talking about fan support, I think the 2 key metrics are A) TV audience size and B) gate revenue. TV audience gauges generally community interest in the team. Gate revenues show the demand for tickets.
By those metrics, I would certainly place all of the Canadian teams in the Elite Franchise tier. Vancouver is #3 in the league ahead of all US O6 teams -- it is anyway in terms of those 2 key metrics. Philadelphia stays in the next tier behind places like Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa. Shocking, isn't it?
Let's take a look at TV numbers:
TOP TEN
Rank Club Regional rights holder Average audience
Per game broadcast
1* Montreal Canadiens RDS* 688,000*
2 Toronto Maple Leafs Rogers Sportsnet Ontario 656,400
3 Vancouver Canucks Rogers Sportsnet Pacific 398,500
4 Calgary Flames Rogers Sportsnet West 221,3005 Pittsburgh Penguins FSN Pittsburgh 214,100
6 Chicago Blackhawks Comcast Sportsnet / WGN-TV 9 196,800
7 Detroit Red Wings FSN Detroit 186,600
8 Edmonton Oilers Rogers Sportsnet West 181,400
9 Ottawa Senators Rogers Sportsnet Ontario 153,40010 New York Rangers MSG Network 152,200
MIDDLE TEN
11 Philadelphia Flyers Comcast Sportsnet / CN8 147,90012 Boston Bruins NESN (New England Sports Network) 120,800
13 New Jersey Devils MSG Plus 99,200
14 Buffalo Sabres MSG Network 93,600
15 Washington Capitals Comcast Sportsnet 85,400
16 St. Louis Blues FSN Midwest 67,000
17 Minnesota Wild FSN North / KSTC-TV 66,500
18 San Jose Sharks CSN California 63,200
19 Los Angeles Kings FSN West / Prime ticket 62,400
20 New York Islanders MSG Plus 61,500
BOTTOM TEN
21 Colorado Avalanche Altitude 54,700
22 Anaheim Ducks FSN West 54,700
23 Dallas Stars FSN Southwest / KDFI My27 42,400
24 Columbus Blue Jackets FSN Ohio 29,600
25 Phoenix Coyotes FSN Arizona 26,500
26 Carolina Hurricanes FSN Carolina 25,300 (est.)
27 Nashville Predators FSN Tennessee 25,300 (est.)
28 Tampa Bay Lightning Sun Sports 25,100
29 Atlanta Thrashers Sportsouth 18,000
30 Florida Panthers FSN Florida 13,400
And Gate Receipts:
In terms of hockey participation rates, the Canadian cities and 3M states would come ahead of all other markets. Moreover, cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston and Pittsburgh would be behind the Canadian markets.
Note: I have not considered Winnipeg above, but believe it will be similar to the smaller market Canadian cities.