Warning Recession Forecast 20 weeks after April 2, 2020

[hockeymyway]

Warning Recession Forecast to follow 20 weeks from April 2, 2020. 2nd warning of a recession in 11 weeks happens when the BCig crosses the 0 mark. It currently sits at 3.8

[TheDeuce]

Is that one of those 3D pictures I'm supposed to stare at until an image emerges?


Lulz aside, I got a rude awakening yesterday. Our mortgage is up for renewal in June and I checked out the rates. Despite the BoC lowering their prime rate the banks and credit unions are all RAISING their rates! Was not expecting gouging at a time like this.



m.

[hockeymyway]

Apr 2, 2020 14:15:17 GMT -6 TheDeuce said:

Is that one of those 3D pictures I'm supposed to stare at until an image emerges?


Lulz aside, I got a rude awakening yesterday. Our mortgage is up for renewal in June and I checked out the rates. Despite the BoC lowering their prime rate the banks and credit unions are all RAISING their rates! Was not expecting gouging at a time like this.



m.

Problem reading pictures. Two words for you. Get Smart.

[ekjet72]

Get smart!📱👍

[iceland2018]

Recession forecast during a pandemic...

In other news, the sky is blue.

[lovethejets]

Global PMI's are plummeting and unemployment claims in the US are already at 9.9 million over the last two weeks. Consumer confidence is being rocked and yields are plummeting. A recession is technically 2 quarters of negative growth and we are most definitely getting that with many estimates of -25% or more in Q2. that is old news. The big question is how fast this bounces back. If real GDP plummets in Q2 but is up 10% or 15% from the lows, the we could see a drop of 6% for the year, however a $2.2 trillion package is 10% of GDP so that will cushion the drop.

Sports spending though is likely to suffer in a big way. Not sure how the NHL will navigate this but likely pay cuts for the athletes seems likely. How long will rich owners pay players salaries? Time will tell but it depends on how long this whole situation goes on for. Therapeutics and antibodies sooner rather than later would help but a vaccine is still a year away.

This is ugly to be sure but we will come through this. The market will be back at its old highs within 18 months.

[wolfmannick]

Hope everyone in Winnipeg and across the forum are staying safe and healthy. Not sure how badly you guys are affected there but here in Southern Ontario theres a lot of worried people.

[ekjet72]

You know I get the sense there is no one area that is going to be spared the pain from both the disease and the depressed economy.
Time will tell.
Stay healthy and safe all

[lovethejets]

hearing rumblings about concerns in the CFL...we could be the last Grey Cup winning team in CFL history

[ekjet72]

The CFL has "died" on my watch 3 or 4 times but this time it scares me. The fan attendance is going down. Toronto and Vancouver have embraced pro soccer and ignored the Canadian football game. Can the game still attract US players at such a CDN $ discount? If there is no season, then we may well see an existential decision coming up in November by the owners and Commissioner.

[iceland2018]

I am beginning to wonder if there will be a 2020-21 NHL season, considering that it is predicted that there will be a second wave of the virus, most likely in late fall. The league can attempt to play in front of empty arenas, but if some players come down with COVID-19, it's game over.

[hockeymyway]

2nd warning of a recession in 11 weeks happened when the BCIg crossed the 0 mark on April 9, 2020. The  BCIg currently sits at -0.1.

11 Weeks is the last week of June 2020. Hopefully measures already taken help to prop up the businesses  and reverses the trend.

[hockeymyway]

Opinion from Stockchase on length of recession.




General Market Comment

April 9, 2020


"Market. One Million plus job losses for the month. It is a doozie. It's the biggest job loss on record. It is going to sting. These job losses are self-induced by our social contract. He thinks it is not likely to be as long as the last recession as it is not a cyclical recession, nor a structural recession. It is an event-driven recession. You have to look at companies and understand the business you are investing in. You are not renting stocks for this quarter's earnings. The challenge for investors is to judge the value of a company. You need to take a long view. There are some bargains in the market. [Stockchase could not paraphrase the cat that was swatting at the guest's head while he was making this market comment. You'd have to watch it here: www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call/brian-madden-s-market-outlook~1936980 It is the new norm of business news in the COVID19 world.]"

[hockeymyway]

Manitoba coronavirus per day has decreased from peak. Looks like another 2 weeks of isolation to get back to the beginning which is March 12, 2020 level. Still have worries of spike up caused by spreaders. These spreaders have to be identified to stop a restart.