Post by NHLWinnipeg on Aug 5, 2011 10:19:31 GMT -6
Will the Winnipeg Jets win Manitoba for the NDP?
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Kathryn Blaze Carlson Aug 5, 2011 – 6:00 AM ET | Last Updated: Aug 4, 2011 8:33 PM ET
It is only early August, but Canada is already deep into election season — provinces, territories, cities and parties are slated for a slew of leadership competitions. As the campaigns ramp up, the National Post outlines the races and issues at play in each province. Today: Kathryn Blaze Carlson looks at the tight two-way race in Manitoba.
If Premier Greg Selinger manages to surge past the Progressive Conservatives and win the Oct. 4 Manitoba election, the historic NDP victory can likely be traced back a few months, to May 31.
On that day, Mr. Selinger joined NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman in announcing the homecoming of the storied Winnipeg Jets, a hockey team whose legacy in the city cannot be overstated. The streets filled with face-painted fans who hollered ‘‘Go Jets Go! Go Jets Go!’’ and it was clear the return of the NHL had invigorated a province still reeling from a devastating flood.
It also invigorated Mr. Selinger’s New Democrats in a tight two-way race, as they seek to form the longest-serving government in Manitoba’s modern history. With the home opener scheduled for the weekend after the election, Jets fever will peak during the crucial final weeks of the campaign — Mr. Selinger’s first since taking over two years ago from Gary Doer, who led the NDP to three straight majorities.
Related
*
Read our full coverage of this fall's provincial votes
“It can’t help but benefit the government,” Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research, which last month released a poll showing the Tories had lost their 12-point lead and are now in a dead heat with the NDP, told the Winnipeg Free Press. “It was a glorious moment for Winnipeg.”
“The Jets coming back was a huge, tremendous event, and it has resonated very strongly with Winnipeggers and Manitobans,” echoed Joan Grace, a politics professor at the University of Winnipeg. “[The NDP] will inevitably get some of the credit … I think some voters will make a connection, even if it’s subconscious.”
Voters saw Mr. Selinger speak about the Jets in television interviews, at least once appearing with the rink in the background and with the words ‘NHL Returns’ emblazoned on the screen. They heard him say things like, “NHL, welcome home. It’s great to have you back here, it’s great to have you back where you belong.”
On CBC News the day of the announcement, the premier reminded Manitobans it was his government that oversaw the construction of the building that will house the Jets. He told viewers — voters — that the homecoming “speaks to how well the economy has done over the past 15 years.”
Fifteen years ago, when the team left town, the Progressive Conservatives were in power. Fifteen years ago, then-premier Gary Filmon privatized Manitoba Telecom Services Inc., a move critics say cost Manitobans more than 1,0000 jobs. Today, the NDP are on their 12th year at the helm, and they are painting Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen with the Filmon brush, warning he will privatize crown corporations just like his predecessor — an allegation perpetuated by public sector unions and which Mr. McFadyen has categorically denied.
The NHL anticipation has been accompanied by ideal summer weather, Prof. Grace said, inevitably putting voters in a sunnier disposition and marking another plus for the sitting government. Most Manitobans have enjoyed blue skies and, importantly, the mosquitoes have been forgiving — not trivial in a province where summers are short and bugs are typically relentless.
“I don’t want to underplay the significance of the flooding, but voters mind-sets are in the short term,” Prof. Grace said, referring to the April and May flooding that put dozens of western Manitoba communities under a state of emergency and forced thousands from their water-logged homes. “When they vote on Oct. 4, people will be thinking about the Jets coming back and the great weather.”
With their parties in a statistical tie, Mr. Selinger and Mr. McFadyen have turned their attention to a critical handful of south Winnipeg seats that could all but determine the election, said Jared Wesley, who teaches politics at the University of Manitoba and the University of Alberta.
To win, the NDP will have to break with history: The electoral boundaries are redrawn every 10 years, and this will be the first competition since the redistribution in 2008. Every time the boundaries have been redrawn since 1958, save for once, the government has changed hands, Prof. Wesley said.
For Mr. McFadyen to overtake Mr. Selinger and form government, he said the Tories must win all of the south Winnipeg seats, plus make gains in at least a few more.
“Hugh McFadyen has gone on the record publicly, several times, saying the election boils down to south Winnipeg, so that’s where they’ll concentrate their efforts,” said Prof. Wesley, who is also heading up the Comparative Provincial Election Project, which is studying races in the five provinces with fixed elections dates this fall.
The Liberals have not led the province since 1958 and currently hold just one seat — leader Jon Gerrard’s in the south Winnipeg riding of River Heights, which Prof. Wesley called the “last bastion of Liberal support in western Canada.”
He said despite the targeted campaigning, Manitobans can expect the “smoke and mirrors” of a television and radio campaign.
The Progressive Conservatives will tell Manitobans that Mr. Selinger’s government has overspent and misspent, and will highlight the NDP’s insistence that a north-south hydro line be built on the west side of Lake Winnipeg to save the province’s bid to have UNESCO declare the forest there a world heritage site. The Tories favour a shorter, less-expensive route along the east side of the lake.
The NDP will make the Progressive Conservatives out to be fiscal hawks who will slash services and privatize Manitoba Hydro. They will also say Mr. McFadyen is not a friend to farmers because he has refused to challenge Ottawa’s plans to shutter the Canadian Wheat Board.
For now, though, Prof. Grace said the weather and the Jets return has “set the mood among voters.”
“It puts them in a mind-set where they’re not disgruntled with the sitting government,” she said. “If the opposition parties don’t make enough headway in derailing and re-framing that mindset, then the NDP will ride the wave.”
news.nationalpost.com/2011/08/05/battlegrounds-canada-will-the-winnipeg-jets-win-manitoba-for-the-ndp/
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Kathryn Blaze Carlson Aug 5, 2011 – 6:00 AM ET | Last Updated: Aug 4, 2011 8:33 PM ET
It is only early August, but Canada is already deep into election season — provinces, territories, cities and parties are slated for a slew of leadership competitions. As the campaigns ramp up, the National Post outlines the races and issues at play in each province. Today: Kathryn Blaze Carlson looks at the tight two-way race in Manitoba.
If Premier Greg Selinger manages to surge past the Progressive Conservatives and win the Oct. 4 Manitoba election, the historic NDP victory can likely be traced back a few months, to May 31.
On that day, Mr. Selinger joined NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman in announcing the homecoming of the storied Winnipeg Jets, a hockey team whose legacy in the city cannot be overstated. The streets filled with face-painted fans who hollered ‘‘Go Jets Go! Go Jets Go!’’ and it was clear the return of the NHL had invigorated a province still reeling from a devastating flood.
It also invigorated Mr. Selinger’s New Democrats in a tight two-way race, as they seek to form the longest-serving government in Manitoba’s modern history. With the home opener scheduled for the weekend after the election, Jets fever will peak during the crucial final weeks of the campaign — Mr. Selinger’s first since taking over two years ago from Gary Doer, who led the NDP to three straight majorities.
Related
*
Read our full coverage of this fall's provincial votes
“It can’t help but benefit the government,” Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research, which last month released a poll showing the Tories had lost their 12-point lead and are now in a dead heat with the NDP, told the Winnipeg Free Press. “It was a glorious moment for Winnipeg.”
“The Jets coming back was a huge, tremendous event, and it has resonated very strongly with Winnipeggers and Manitobans,” echoed Joan Grace, a politics professor at the University of Winnipeg. “[The NDP] will inevitably get some of the credit … I think some voters will make a connection, even if it’s subconscious.”
Voters saw Mr. Selinger speak about the Jets in television interviews, at least once appearing with the rink in the background and with the words ‘NHL Returns’ emblazoned on the screen. They heard him say things like, “NHL, welcome home. It’s great to have you back here, it’s great to have you back where you belong.”
On CBC News the day of the announcement, the premier reminded Manitobans it was his government that oversaw the construction of the building that will house the Jets. He told viewers — voters — that the homecoming “speaks to how well the economy has done over the past 15 years.”
Fifteen years ago, when the team left town, the Progressive Conservatives were in power. Fifteen years ago, then-premier Gary Filmon privatized Manitoba Telecom Services Inc., a move critics say cost Manitobans more than 1,0000 jobs. Today, the NDP are on their 12th year at the helm, and they are painting Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen with the Filmon brush, warning he will privatize crown corporations just like his predecessor — an allegation perpetuated by public sector unions and which Mr. McFadyen has categorically denied.
The NHL anticipation has been accompanied by ideal summer weather, Prof. Grace said, inevitably putting voters in a sunnier disposition and marking another plus for the sitting government. Most Manitobans have enjoyed blue skies and, importantly, the mosquitoes have been forgiving — not trivial in a province where summers are short and bugs are typically relentless.
“I don’t want to underplay the significance of the flooding, but voters mind-sets are in the short term,” Prof. Grace said, referring to the April and May flooding that put dozens of western Manitoba communities under a state of emergency and forced thousands from their water-logged homes. “When they vote on Oct. 4, people will be thinking about the Jets coming back and the great weather.”
With their parties in a statistical tie, Mr. Selinger and Mr. McFadyen have turned their attention to a critical handful of south Winnipeg seats that could all but determine the election, said Jared Wesley, who teaches politics at the University of Manitoba and the University of Alberta.
To win, the NDP will have to break with history: The electoral boundaries are redrawn every 10 years, and this will be the first competition since the redistribution in 2008. Every time the boundaries have been redrawn since 1958, save for once, the government has changed hands, Prof. Wesley said.
For Mr. McFadyen to overtake Mr. Selinger and form government, he said the Tories must win all of the south Winnipeg seats, plus make gains in at least a few more.
“Hugh McFadyen has gone on the record publicly, several times, saying the election boils down to south Winnipeg, so that’s where they’ll concentrate their efforts,” said Prof. Wesley, who is also heading up the Comparative Provincial Election Project, which is studying races in the five provinces with fixed elections dates this fall.
The Liberals have not led the province since 1958 and currently hold just one seat — leader Jon Gerrard’s in the south Winnipeg riding of River Heights, which Prof. Wesley called the “last bastion of Liberal support in western Canada.”
He said despite the targeted campaigning, Manitobans can expect the “smoke and mirrors” of a television and radio campaign.
The Progressive Conservatives will tell Manitobans that Mr. Selinger’s government has overspent and misspent, and will highlight the NDP’s insistence that a north-south hydro line be built on the west side of Lake Winnipeg to save the province’s bid to have UNESCO declare the forest there a world heritage site. The Tories favour a shorter, less-expensive route along the east side of the lake.
The NDP will make the Progressive Conservatives out to be fiscal hawks who will slash services and privatize Manitoba Hydro. They will also say Mr. McFadyen is not a friend to farmers because he has refused to challenge Ottawa’s plans to shutter the Canadian Wheat Board.
For now, though, Prof. Grace said the weather and the Jets return has “set the mood among voters.”
“It puts them in a mind-set where they’re not disgruntled with the sitting government,” she said. “If the opposition parties don’t make enough headway in derailing and re-framing that mindset, then the NDP will ride the wave.”
news.nationalpost.com/2011/08/05/battlegrounds-canada-will-the-winnipeg-jets-win-manitoba-for-the-ndp/
