|
|
Post by TheDeuce on Mar 26, 2013 8:33:44 GMT -6
Back on track for our Jets and our degenerate gambler thread. JHF said the Jets would beat Tampa and Mr. Pavelec cared enough to oblige.
Season gaming summary:
Ottawa - $100 loss
Boston - $ 50 gain ($100 bet at -200 odds)
Washington - $155 gain ($100 bet at +155 odds)
Pittsburgh - $124 gain ($100 bet at +124)
Long Island - $69 gain ($100 bet at -145)
Montreal - $63 gain ($100 bet at -160)
Florida - $100 loss
Tampa - $57 gain
Florida - $70 gain
Toronto - $100 loss
Ottawa - $100 loss
Philly - $100 loss
Pens - $67 profit
Bruins - $71 profit
Buffalo - $135 profit
Carolina - $135 profit
Philly - $100 loss
New Jersey - $100 loss
Rangers - $140 profit
Devils - $91 profit
Caps - $100 loss
Florida - $100 loss
Tampa - $100 loss
Florida - $83 profit
Jersey - $100 loss
Loafs - $87 gain
Rangers - $95 gain
Loafs - $125 gain
Sens - $80 profit
Bruins - $100 loss
Caps - $100 loss
Caps - $125 gain
Bolts - $71 gain
Thus we're up a virtual $593.
(For those following at home I've been tracking how we vote on the results of Jets games and calculating the net result for a $100 virtual bet).
Moneyline: Jets are the underdogs - didn't see that coming. +114/-125. Hence a winning bet on the Jets gets $114 profit while a winning bet on the Hurricanes gets $80 profit.
The Jets record when I predict they will win hasn't been great - but I like their chances. The Hurricanes have lost five in a row (if you count the OT loss to the Rangers as a loss) though and might be in an ornery mood. Their home record is under .500 (7-8-0) while the Jets road record is a serviceable 9-6-2. More obscure stats: the 'Canes are 4-6 in their last ten games played on a Tuesday while the Jets' last 10 Tuesday games net a 5-5 result. After a win the Jets are 5-5 while the 'Canes are 4-6 after a loss. Head to head? The Jets are 5-2 in their last seven against Carolina.
It's been over a year since the Jets lost to Carolina (03/18/2012, a 4-3 loss in Winnipeg) and longer since we've lost IN Carolina (01/23/2012, a 2-1 loss). Are the oddsmakers thinking that the 'Canes are due? I dunno, but I'm taking the Jets.
Who do you like?
m.
|
|
|
|
Post by roublerouser on Mar 26, 2013 11:51:02 GMT -6
This is the "first time" I've said this but. This is a must win. 4 points and separation on are on the line. It's time to show our club has the ability to turn up the skillset. We know they can turn it down :-(.
Jets by 2. "Make the final Jets 3 Canes 1.
|
|
|
|
Post by jetsorbust on Mar 26, 2013 12:11:30 GMT -6
This is the "first time" I've said this but. This is a must win. 4 points and separation on are on the line. It's time to show our club has the ability to turn up the skillset. We know they can turn it down :-(. Jets by 2. "Make the final Jets 3 Canes 1. I can't remember who said this before the Boston game, but I think it is very appropriate here: This is NOT a must win game. If the Jets lose, they are still ahead! And if they can come back and win the next 2 (especially the next game against Carolina) you will almost forget about the loss. So they can afford to lose, BUT it would be an absolutely huge win for them. If they win tonights game, there is no reason why they should not make the playoffs, and if they can win both against Carolina, there is no reason why they should not win the division. |
|
|
|
Post by Lions67 on Mar 26, 2013 12:29:03 GMT -6
This is the "first time" I've said this but. This is a must win. 4 points and separation on are on the line. It's time to show our club has the ability to turn up the skillset. We know they can turn it down :-(. Jets by 2. "Make the final Jets 3 Canes 1. I can't remember who said this before the Boston game, but I think it is very appropriate here: This is NOT a must win game. If the Jets lose, they are still ahead! And if they can come back and win the next 2 (especially the next game against Carolina) you will almost forget about the loss. So they can afford to lose, BUT it would be an absolutely huge win for them. If they win tonights game, there is no reason why they should not make the playoffs, and if they can win both against Carolina, there is no reason why they should not win the division. with the Canes holding a 3 games in hand advantage, this is VERY MUCH a must win game! Canes havent played in almost a week it seems. The Jets must get on them hard and fast. Jets take this one 3-1 |
|
|
|
Post by TheDeuce on Mar 26, 2013 13:00:09 GMT -6
"Must win" = a game that, if lost, creates a situation which cannot be recovered from. Put another way, pretend this is the last game of the season. What happens if we lose and there are no more games to be played? If the Jets lose tonight they'll still be two points up on Carolina. They'll still be in first place in the division. They'll still be third in the conference. In other words, nothing directly changes if we lose today. Now, we sure as hell WANT to win this game! Absolutely! It makes a huge difference in our playoff position if we win. Check this out: www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Winnipeg.htmlRight now the Jets have a 59.2% chance of making the playoffs. Here's how that changes based on different outcomes: Jets win in regulation: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 12.9% to 72.1% Jets in OT: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 11.4% to 70.6% Jets in a SO: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 10% to 69.2% Canes in a SO: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 0.1% to 59.1% Canes in OT: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 0.5% to 58.7% Canes in regulation: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 9.9% to 49.3% Really, really, really, really want to win? Yep. 'Must' win? Nope. m. |
|
|
|
Post by jetsorbust on Mar 26, 2013 13:07:14 GMT -6
I can't remember who said this before the Boston game, but I think it is very appropriate here: This is NOT a must win game. If the Jets lose, they are still ahead! And if they can come back and win the next 2 (especially the next game against Carolina) you will almost forget about the loss. So they can afford to lose, BUT it would be an absolutely huge win for them. If they win tonights game, there is no reason why they should not make the playoffs, and if they can win both against Carolina, there is no reason why they should not win the division. with the Canes holding a 3 games in hand advantage, this is VERY MUCH a must win game! Canes havent played in almost a week it seems. The Jets must get on them hard and fast. Jets take this one 3-1 The persons point was that it is a very important game, and a win would do great things for us, but realistically it's not a MUST WIN game, because if we lose the season is certainly not over. That's what I would say about this game. I'd love to see us win, and a win would be huge but realistically this is more of a must win game for Carolina than it is for us. |
|
|
|
Post by myusernamesucks on Mar 26, 2013 13:08:22 GMT -6
I follow this site way too much. What I find particularly interesting is that for all those saying that once realignment kicks in next year we have no shot of making the playoffs, we would have the same 59% chance of a playoff berth if we were playing in the new divisions. There's a 'take me to the land of realignment' link. I know it means absolutely squat, but interesting nonetheless. |
|
|
|
Post by jetsorbust on Mar 26, 2013 13:09:05 GMT -6
"Must win" = a game that, if lost, creates a situation which cannot be recovered from. Put another way, pretend this is the last game of the season. What happens if we lose and there are no more games to be played? If the Jets lose tonight they'll still be two points up on Carolina. They'll still be in first place in the division. They'll still be third in the conference. In other words, nothing directly changes if we lose today. Now, we sure as hell WANT to win this game! Absolutely! It makes a huge difference in our playoff position if we win. Check this out: www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Southeast/Winnipeg.htmlRight now the Jets have a 59.2% chance of making the playoffs. Here's how that changes based on different outcomes: Jets win in regulation: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 12.9% to 72.1% Jets in OT: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 11.4% to 70.6% Jets in a SO: Our chances of making the playoffs go up 10% to 69.2% Canes in a SO: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 0.1% to 59.1% Canes in OT: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 0.5% to 58.7% Canes in regulation: Our chances of making the playoffs go down 9.9% to 49.3% Really, really, really, really want to win? Yep. 'Must' win? Nope. m. That's exactly what I said! Just you know... with statistics and facts to support it ;D |
|
|
|
Post by TheDeuce on Mar 26, 2013 13:31:49 GMT -6
I follow this site way too much. What I find particularly interesting is that for all those saying that once realignment kicks in next year we have no shot of making the playoffs, we would have the same 59% chance of a playoff berth if we were playing in the new divisions. There's a 'take me to the land of realignment' link. I know it means absolutely squat, but interesting nonetheless. I hadn't checked out the 'land of realignment' link but you're right. But for now I'm focused on the SE Division.  Even more interesting, I find, is that anything short of a regulation win by Carolina has a negligible effect on our chances. We get a huge shot in the arm with any kind of win but less than a 1% hit if we lose in OT or a SO. But let's get the win in regulation. m. |
|
|
|
Post by myusernamesucks on Mar 26, 2013 13:51:25 GMT -6
I follow this site way too much. What I find particularly interesting is that for all those saying that once realignment kicks in next year we have no shot of making the playoffs, we would have the same 59% chance of a playoff berth if we were playing in the new divisions. There's a 'take me to the land of realignment' link. I know it means absolutely squat, but interesting nonetheless. I hadn't checked out the 'land of realignment' link but you're right. But for now I'm focused on the SE Division. Even more interesting, I find, is that anything short of a regulation win by Carolina has a negligible effect on our chances. We get a huge shot in the arm with any kind of win but less than a 1% hit if we lose in OT or a SO. But let's get the win in regulation. m. Regulation win is absolutely huge. I know if we lose we are still in 1st etc etc... BUT....the Canes have 3 games in hand on us right now, and still will after tonight. If we win in regulation, in effect, those 3 games are rendered useless as we would be 6 points up. Of course there are always tiebreakers, but it's nice to know that if we win the best the Canes can do with the three games in hand is tie us in points - if, of course, both teams keep on their current pace. |
|
|
|
Post by jetsorbust on Mar 26, 2013 13:56:25 GMT -6
I follow this site way too much. What I find particularly interesting is that for all those saying that once realignment kicks in next year we have no shot of making the playoffs, we would have the same 59% chance of a playoff berth if we were playing in the new divisions. There's a 'take me to the land of realignment' link. I know it means absolutely squat, but interesting nonetheless. I think it has taken a lot of us awhile to get away from the "shock" of the initial proposal. At first, it certainly seemed like our division was going to get MUCH more tough. And it is going to be a better division than the lowly SE, but... 1) We lost a team (compared to initial proposal), so now we have a 7 team division 2) The team we lost was Detroit. Enough said. 3) St. Louis doesn't seem to be the powerhouse they were last year, or were projected to be going forward. 4) Minnesota hasn't improved as much as we all thought they would. 5) Heck even Dallas, Colorado and Nashville look a little worse than they did last year. Overall, Chicago alone is a reason why our division will be tougher next year, but it doesn't seem like AS TOUGH of a division as it did when the proposal first came out. If our team continues to improve we should be able to compete for a playoff spot in the new division. Winning our division is definitely going to be a lot more difficult next season though! |
|
|
|
Post by roublerouser on Mar 26, 2013 20:40:18 GMT -6
This is the "first time" I've said this but. This is a must win. 4 points and separation on are on the line. It's time to show our club has the ability to turn up the skillset. We know they can turn it down :-(. Jets by 2. "Make the final Jets 3 Canes 1. I can't remember who said this before the Boston game, but I think it is very appropriate here: This is NOT a must win game. If the Jets lose, they are still ahead! And if they can come back and win the next 2 (especially the next game against Carolina) you will almost forget about the loss. So they can afford to lose, BUT it would be an absolutely huge win for them. If they win tonights game, there is no reason why they should not make the playoffs, and if they can win both against Carolina, there is no reason why they should not win the division. Couldn't disagree more. If they would have lost to the Canes, they're next rumble is against a much stronger (some could argue strongest) team. What would that have meant?? Possibly two loses and 3 games at hand. You have to win the ones you should. Look what happened against the Caps. Games they should take, and opportunities lost. The Canes are our closest threat, we lose and are still 3 games at hand and now only up by 2. Yeah you are right, this could never EVER be considered must win. Give me a break.  |
|
