The NBA is probably out of options in the US after Seattle like you say but it’s tough up north competing with hockey. Don’t get me wrong. I’d love to see a Vancouver or Montreal team if it would work even semi-decently. I think Vancouver has a shot someday in the future possible. I could see a Vancouver team someday being something like the Indiana Pacers attendance wise/financially. They’d be weak but they’d survive if everything went right. I just think to be safe they need another 10-15 years of population growth(ie many more Chinese immigrants) and let the memory of the Grizzlies 1.0 get further in the rear mirror. I can definitely see the pro Vancouver argument. I just don’t think it’s time yet. Wait until the population hits at least 3+ million then maybe give it a shot.
I won’t rule out Montreal 100% since they have the population and the building but you’re badly underestimating how impossible it is to go against the Habs. They come 1st 2nd 3rd 4th …. on the Montreal sports interest chain. The Habs are a religion.
I know basketball sold out 2 exhibition games in Montreal. I was the one who posted that on here. I was all excited about it and had the same idea as you. Believe me I hope I’m wrong and it would happen and work somehow some way but it just isn’t there I don’t think. If Montreal ever gets another “real” sport it will be MLB someday.
There’s a HUGE difference between selling out 2 novelty pre-season games and supporting the full 82 season after season especially when that team would be the last place on earth NBA players would want to play and going against the Habs. Baseball would have a better shot because they wouldn’t be going against the Habs head to head other than April and maybe May.
Comparing Ontario to Quebec for NBA is like comparing Boston area to the Phoenix area for hockey in a way. Just because there in the same country doesn’t mean both can support or care a particular sport.
Toronto is the most(or one of the most) multicultural city in the world if I’m not mistaken. Montreal doesn’t have close to the amount of foreigners that Toronto has. To make NBA work in Canada you need an absolutely HUGE amount of foreigners(preferable Asians and East Indians) because a large segment of the white population views the NBA very hostilely since it’s not hockey(plus it leaves less time for hockey analysis and highlights on sportscentre) and most NBA superstars are divas other than Kevin Durrant, Tim Duncan and Derrick Rose.
Why did the NBA pick Vancouver over Montreal the first time given the fact that at the time Vancouver was 1.7M people and Montreal was around 3M? The NBA must have done market research and found that there was very little interest in Montreal or else they would have gone with Montreal since it’s bigger.
The Conference board of Canada last year thought Vancouver would eventually get the NBA back due to the large Asian population. They didn’t even mention NBA to Montreal since the odds were so remote. The Canucks owner is on record saying he would try for an NBA team if the market share in Vancouver was adequate. So that shows it’s being thought about at least in Vancouver. The Habs/Bell Centre owner hasn’t shown any indication whatsoever that he is interested.
I wouldn’t rule out relocation yet. Don’t ever count your new arenas until they hatch.(or break ground on them). There’s a group in Sacramento trying to force a public vote. The parking revenues to pay for the new arena may not add up. The entire thing was whipped together on the rush to prevent the team from going to Seattle. Now comes the nuts and bolts things like making sure everything adds up.
Milwaukee’s new arena details are still vague yet but the business boards behind the new arena say they will probably allow a public vote. If that’s true you can say good bye to the Bucks. If an arena gets passed they need the politicians to ram it though. You’re right about Seattle getting a team as long as their arena passes but you can’t expand until you are certain Sacramento and Milwaukee are taken care of or else the NBA would lose all of its leverage. As you say there are not many places left if any that you could go to anywhere in Canada or the US if a team like Milwaukee failed and Seattle was taken by expansion. If the NBA says to Sacramento build us an arena or we go to Seattle they take that seriously. If they said hey build us an arena or we go to Montreal, Omaha or Vegas they may point and laugh and call the NBA’s bluff.
I wouldn’t rule out 31 teams if Sacramento and Milwaukee come through. It’s NOT ideal but you can get away with an odd number of teams in the NBA,NHL or NFL. NBA had 27 teams for a long time. NFL had 31 until they added Houston. NHL had 21 teams for a long time. Only baseball needs an even number since they play almost every day.
I don’t think the NBA would add a 32nd team unless they could make money off of it. Say you add Vancouver. You’d get an expansion fee but then you’d be splitting up the upcoming huge national TV deal by 32 teams instead of 31 plus you’d have to give them revenue sharing. Is doing that going to make the NBA money or not?
As far as the United States goes there are probably no other places to go but I’d give a remote shot to Las Vegas and Omaha.
Las Vegas is probably going to break ground on a privately financed new arena in 2014 it looks like. MGM is behind it. Vegas does have 2 million people and UNLV’s basketball team was popular. Maybe NBA could work since there would be no other competition. If any sport would work in Vegas it would be NBA.
The drawbacks are numerous however. Too many people from other places, 1/3rd of the people are working or sleeping at any given time due to nightshift work at casinos, a small TV market(43rd if you count Canadian tv markets too), gambling.
The other problem is that since MGM is privately financing this they need the revenue from all the shows/concerts to pay for construction. An NBA team owner would need that because a Vegas team would probably be one of the weaker NBA teams and would need all that “other” stuff. Vegas’s arena will probably follow the Kansas City model and be profitable without sports. Only way I could see it working is if MGM would become the team owner. But would the NBA really allow a casino to own a team?
Omaha has less of a chance than Vegas but it’s a very dark horse. I’ve heard it mentioned on the Chicago Tribune that the NBA was researching it. Omaha is only 922,000 people but there are a lot of billionaires in the area(Warren Buffett etc..) and there would be no competition from other pro teams. They have a modern arena but it would need to add some more luxury boxes which is possible. By 2020 Omaha will have over a million people. Oklahoma City is the current smallest market at 1.37M people. The biggest drawback of all is the TV market is 82nd in either the US or Canada below the likes of even places like Green Bay, Spokane, Albany, Knoxville and Honolulu. New Orleans is the current smallest TV market in NBA at 55th. I doubt it can work unless the people are 100% insane for NBA. Even then it would be very hard.
So you’re very likely right. NBA probably is out of US option. I’d put the likely hood of relocation candidates in this order.
1. Seattle(a slam dunk as long as new arena is approved
2. Vancouver(50-50 shot in 15-20 years due to all the Asians/East Indians in the area plus an owner who would want a team if it could work)
3. Las Vegas(Long shot-If you could work out the arena thing with MGM it could maybe work)
4. Omaha/Montreal(very long shots)
