Alberta Economy Collapsing

[Deleted]

Alberta was expected to lead the nation in job creation and economic growth 3 months ago. Now the economy is going to retract, and finish dead last in terms of growth. There are thousands of people being laid off, and this will likely not improve for at least a year or more. Not sure how other parts of the country are faring, but Alberta, and to a lesser extend Saskatchewan, Newfoundland, and Northeast BC, are not the places to go for work, since they are reliant on the oil and gas sector.

Oil has gone from $109.00 a barrel in June to about $45.00 as of today. It is not profitable to drill for oil in many locations right now. The supply is too much greater than the demand.

[Deleted]

Jan 30, 2015 15:01:08 GMT -6 @hannujarvenpaa said:

Alberta was expected to lead the nation in job creation and economic growth 3 months ago. Now the economy is going to retract, and finish dead last in terms of growth. There are thousands of people being laid off, and this will likely not improve for at least a year or more. Not sure how other parts of the country are faring, but Alberta, and to a lesser extend Saskatchewan, Newfoundland, and Northeast BC, are not the places to go for work, since they are reliant on the oil and gas sector.

Oil has gone from $109.00 a barrel in June to about $45.00 as of today. It is not profitable to drill for oil in many locations right now. The supply is too much greater than the demand.

Then

Oil $ 109 a barrel 
Gas $115.9 / L

Now

Oil $ 45 a barrel
Gas $0.87 / L

The barrel is more than half the price, yet the price of fuel had only fallen by 1/4 to at most 1/3 of the price.

For the longest time all the oil companies told us, gas prices are in relation to the barrel, well why is it not falling with the barrel now?

Here's the other problem, when oil goes back up, and don't kid yourself it will, when it goes back up to 100 + a barrel, with the price being where it is now, do you think it will only go back to its previous price point, LOLOLOLOL, 

Expect to see 1.50 + for a litre.

[Ric O.]

CDN$ that was near par not too long ago is only about 78.5 cents now, so it used to be real 1.159/l.
Considering the exchange, 0.87/l is relatively like 0.68/l with a par dollar so maybe that brings the discrepancy of price per barrel vs. pump price a bit closer.
I imagine some costs like refining are more or less fixed, or don't change with the world price of oil.

The almost daily fluctuations from 87 to 77 to 87 to 75 to 87 to 80 to 87 etc. are still perplexing.

I guess Alberta will be taking a big hit alright, but they had such a sick amount of revenue coming in they should be able to weather the storm ok if they budgeted properly for the volatility that is the oil market.

[Deleted]

Feb 1, 2015 15:44:35 GMT -6 Ric O. said:

CDN$ that was near par not too long ago is only about 78.5 cents now, so it used to be real 1.159/l.
Considering the exchange, 0.87/l is relatively like 0.68/l with a par dollar so maybe that brings the discrepancy of price per barrel vs. pump price a bit closer.
I imagine some costs like refining are more or less fixed, or don't change with the world price of oil.

The almost daily fluctuations from 87 to 77 to 87 to 75 to 87 to 80 to 87 etc. are still perplexing.

I guess Alberta will be taking a big hit alright, but they had such a sick amount of revenue coming in they should be able to weather the storm ok if they budgeted properly for the volatility that is the oil market.

After 3 years on my job, I am taking a temporary layoff on Monday, which sucks big time. At least I have a college degree from RRC which I may finally fall back on, so its not the end of the world. I've heard prices are only expected to rise to $70/barrel by the end of the year. It may be a long time before prices return to over $80, but its such a volatile industry that anything can happen.

[Grumpz]

Just like my investment portfolio, you need diversify. Manitoba was relatively unscathed in the last recession.

If Alberta wants to put all their eggs in one basket, it'll always be feast or famin.

2014/15 - The official return of the "White Out"!!

[Deleted]

Feb 1, 2015 19:54:31 GMT -6 Grumpz said:

Just like my investment portfolio, you need diversify. Manitoba was relatively unscathed in the last recession.

If Alberta wants to put all their eggs in one basket, it'll always be feast or famin.

2014/15 - The official return of the "White Out"!!

Alberta has tried repeatedly to do this since the 70s, and it has failed. They do have agriculture, and tourism though. Additionally, Calgary and Edmonton have more and more manufacturing and distribution centres. The Foothills industrial area has tons, and the area is 1/4 of the size of Winnipeg. The problem is Alberta has definitely tried to diversify its economy in the past, but the Oil and Gas sector is so lucrative when it's hot, that people tend of flock to it, as they can make double the money, and it can be argued that it is relatively easier to get ahead.

[Deleted]

More bad news out of Alberta. Now the construction industry is bracing for a 3 year slump due to dwindling houosing sales, and the beginning of major housing price corrections across Alberta. 35,000 people are expected to be laid off by spring breakup. It is starting to effect everyone. Car dealerships, real estate, tourism, etc. There is a legitimate chance that the oil/gas sector may not recover until late 2016. I am weighing my options, and may return to Winnipeg or move to BC. It's looking very bad.

People are starting to return to their native provinces. TFW's are being lsent home. Major projects are being delayed or cancelled outright. The oil and gas companies will have to drastically cut costs, and that will take at least a year. I'm hoing prices will rise to $70/barrel, but it looks highly unlikely in 2015. It is just a matter of time before the oil crash affects all Canadians. I would put off buying real estate, or to sell high. There is a real possibility that a housing crash may occur soon, as it did in the USA a few years ago.

[jmt]

You are quite pessimistic. Let's be honest, you really don't have any idea what is going to happen, but to sit here and say "I would put off buying real estate or sell it right away". Might I inquire what your background is to so adamantly be giving such firm predictions on the short & long term future of the economy?

TFWs being sent home is a good thing. I have several friends in Calgary who are real estate agents and while yes, the entry level market has cooled and will likely do so for a while, the 500k + mark and especially the 1mm+ market is still moving. Projects are being delays or put on the shelf, until they're not again. It's a cycle, like it was 7 years ago and 10 years before that. There's no need to run around claiming the sky is falling, it isn't.

[Deleted]

Mar 17, 2015 17:43:29 GMT -6 jmt said:

You are quite pessimistic. Let's be honest, you really don't have any idea what is going to happen, but to sit here and say "I would put off buying real estate or sell it right away". Might I inquire what your background is to so adamantly be giving such firm predictions on the short & long term future of the economy?

TFWs being sent home is a good thing. I have several friends in Calgary who are real estate agents and while yes, the entry level market has cooled and will likely do so for a while, the 500k + mark and especially the 1mm+ market is still moving. Projects are being delays or put on the shelf, until they're not again. It's a cycle, like it was 7 years ago and 10 years before that. There's no need to run around claiming the sky is falling, it isn't.

You are not in Alberta so you have no idea how this oil/gas collapse is affecting the average person. The housing market is already starting to fall, and the construction industry is taking a big hit. The $500,000+ market IS taking a hit. And finally we all know it is a boom/bust economy, but there is no guarantee how long it lasts. I was optimistic that oil prices would rebound to $70/barrel in late 2015, but now oil producers are becoming more pessimistic. It could take 2 years for oil companies to adjust their expenditures, and budget for $50.00 oil barrel prices if prices do not go up. I've worked for a number of big plants. I have seen first hand how absurd they overspend, when oil was trading for over $100.00 a barrel, and it made me worry about what would happen if there was a downturn.

links:

Real Estate Watch: Alberta home prices extend downward slide

www.bnn.ca/News/2015/3/13/Alberta-home-prices-extend-downward-slide.aspx


‘Corrections In Progress' In Most Canadian Housing Markets: Teranet

www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/03/12/correction-housing-market-canada_n_6856158.html


Why Every Canadian Investor Needs to Worry About Alberta’s Housing Market

www.fool.ca/2015/02/27/why-every-canadian-investor-needs-to-worry-about-albertas-housing-market/

Alberta’s construction industry facing three years of job losses

www.bnn.ca/News/2015/3/16/Albertas-construction-industry-facing-three-years-of-job-losses.aspx

[jmt]

I'm not in Alberta? Where did you get that information?

Why did I say anything... I should have known that you've been on a few jobs sites or worked in Alberta in one specific industry, and can read headlines in the media. Don't answer questions, just post links and "I've seen it!" stories to substantiate your claims.

[Deleted]

Mar 17, 2015 18:01:33 GMT -6 jmt said:

I'm not in Alberta? Where did you get that information?

Why did I say anything... I should have known that you've been on a few jobs sites or worked in Alberta in one specific industry, and can read headlines in the media. Don't answer questions, just post links and "I've seen it!" stories to substantiate your claims.

Settle down, cowboy. It's only the internet.

PS...I forgot to wish you a happy 30th birthday.

[Deleted]

After a couple of lean years, Alberta is expected to make a recovery this year, and should lead the nation i economic growth by fall. Oil is at about $52.50/BARREL, and with the cutting of costs, more oilfield jobs are opening for the first time since late 2014. Out here in Calgary, rent prices ahve dropped, the vacancy rate has risen from 1.4% to nearly 7% in two years. Downtown vacancies are at a astounding 25%. Hopefully Trump's Keystone XL line will be put through soon.

[Deleted]

And in recent news, the Conference Board of Canada has just revised it's economic outlook. Alberta Economy is expected to grow 3.3%, up from 2.8% predicted in late 2016. The recession is over, and let the good times roll.