MLB off-season thread

[mikecubs]

David Price(30 years old) signs with Boston for 7 years $217M dollars with an opt out after 3 years. I bet this deal works ok for the Sox though the last year or 2 could suck. Ideally he'd have 3 great years and opt out and get even more money. That's what happened with Zack Greinke. Sox are still stuck with Hanley Ramirez/Pedro Sandoval but they have a ton of young talent. I could see them winning the east or getting a wild card. Glad the Cubs didn't sign Price though. Jake Arrieta is a free agent in 2 years and the money needs to be saved for that.

32 year old Zack Greinke has signed a 6 year $206M dollar deal with the Diamondbacks. Greinke is a poor mans Maddux who doesn't rely on throwing hard so I think most of this deal will work out but the problem is the Diamondbacks probably still don't have enough pitching. Word is they are still going to sign a 2nd tier guy. Last sunday the Diamondbacks foolishly offered Johnny Cueto 6 years 120M and he turned it down thankfully for them so they went after Greinke. It was thought that it was down to the Dodgers and Giants for Greinke, Arizona came out of nowhere.

The Tigers signed Jordan Zimmerman to a 5 year $110M dollar deal. His velocity went way down last year and he's already had tommy john surgery. He won't be worth it but if he can hold on and achieve mediocrity maybe he will be worth it given how these deals are going.

The Blue Jays have replaced David Price with JA Happ. Happ is a journeyman but Pittsburgh's excellent pitching coach changed his arm slot and he had a sub 2 ERA for the last 2 months of the season for the Pirates.

Word is somebody offered Jeff Samardzija a $100M dollar contract. LOL mid rotation starter Mike Leake has been offered an 80M dollar deal. What it looks like is going to happen is the Dodgers/Giants are going to panic and screw themselves and overpay for a Cueto/Leake/Samardzija. The Giants only have Madison Bumgartner right now and nothing else in their rotation.

The Cubs signed 37 year old John Lackey to a 2 year $32M dollar deal. A nice deal but most cub fans don't like the signing because Lackey is a horrible person who divorced his wife while she was battling cancer. The guy is a terrible human being.

Jason Heyward is the biggest name left. He is overrated because he don't have much power and most of his value lies in his defense. When he gets older he won't have his defense and he won't be worth what he gets. Someone is going to pay over $200M plus give him an out clause because he's only 26. There were rumors the Cubs would trade Solar for pitching and sign him. I'm praying it's not true. DO NOT WANT!

As far as the Cubs this off-season has gone pretty good. They now have 3 starters, they are seriously considering filling center field with star infield prospect Javier Baez(This is a great move if true). Most of their competition isn't as good as last year. The Dodgers lose Greinke, the Mets are going to lose Cespedas/Murphy and won't have enough offense to help out the pitching(the Mets were the worst offensive team in baseball pre-Cespedas last year), the Cardinals lost Lackey, Lance Lynn will miss the season with TJ surgery, Heyward will leave or be overpaid to stay, the Pirates lost JA Haap to Toronto and AJ Burnett to retirement, in the AL the Royals will probably lose Ben Zobrist and Alex Gordon, Toronto loses Price. There is still talk the Cubs will trade for one more young starter at the right price like a Tyler Ross, Andrew Cashner, Shelby Miller etc.... My personal choice is former Cub Andrew Cashner. He has only 1 year left until free agency so he will cost the least. I don't want to give up any young talent of the major league roster but wouldn't mind a sensible deal for minor league talent.

Very LONG way to go yet this off-season but it's looking like things are breaking the right way for the curse to finally end!

[Bruinsfan]

Hateeeeeee the signing of price.

Choker.

[mikecubs]

Price's playoff game logs

2008 as a reliever vs Boston in ALCS

game 1- 1/3IP 0R 0ER (Boston wins 2-0)
game 2- 2/3IP, OR, 0ER (Price came in a tied 8-8 game got 2 outs then the win when Tampa scores in the bottom of the 11th) Came through here
Game 7- 1.1IP, OR,0ER 1 save(Price gets last 4 outs to save 3-1 deciding game to go to world series)

2008 in World Series vs. Philadelphia as a reliever

game 2- 2.1IP, 2R, 1ER(Finished 4-2 game, came in when it was 4-0 and didn't get credited with save, this was only win of World series for Rays)
game 5- 1IP, OR, 0ER(Held Philly scoreless in 8th to keep Rays to within 4-3, Phillies hold Rays scoreless in top of 9th and win world series)

2010 vs Texas in round 1

Game 1- 6.2, 5R, 4ER (Rays lose 5-1, Price credited with loss)
Game 5- 6IP, 3R, 3ER(Rays lose 5-1, Price credited with loss)

These could have gone either way. If he give up 1 less run in either it's considered a quality start. Not good starts but not god awful.

2011 vs Texas rd 1

Game 3- 6.2IP, 3R, 3ER(Rays lose 4-3)

A quality start. Gave up 2 run homer in 7th. Bad luck here. Had a really good start going, one bad pitch. If he was a choker you'd think he'd be rocked at the outset.

2013 vs Boston in ALDS

game 3- 7IP, 7R, 7ER

Terrible game. Absolutely lit up. This was a choke job.

Price now moved on to Detroit in a trade

2014 vs. Baltimore in ALDS

Game 3- 8IP, 2R,2ER(Price pitches a gem but Bud Norris pitches 6.2IP giving up no runs, Tigers lose 2-1, Tigers are eliminated)

Great poise under pressure, no run support +1 for Price here. Best playoff game. I think if he was a choker this would have been a good spot to do it at home with season on the line.

2015 vs. Texas in ALDS

Game 1- 7IP, 5R, 5ER(Jays lose 5-3)

This was a bad one! I'd classify this as a choke.

Game 4 in relief vs. Texas 3IP, 3R,3ER (gets win after Dickey only goes 4.2IP but doesn't pitch well, came in with 7-1 lead, Jays win 8-4) Held the Rangers down at 1st but gives up 1 in 7th, 2 in 8th.

vs. KC in ALCS

Game 2- 6.2IP, 5R, 5ER. Dropped fly ball ruins it all. Went to 7th with 2-0 lead. He absolutely deserves a shut on here. Totally clutch. After he starts struggling the minor league manager is too dumb to take him out.

Game 6- 6.2IP, 3R, 3ER(Jays lose 4-3, Price with a no decision, Moustakous home run was boarderline homerun with possible fan interference, it was very close)

Not a bad start, a few inches away from being a really good start.

[mikecubs]

So overall he has been clutch as a reliever, I mean if you are a choker you will fold in game 7 vs. Boston with a trip to the series on the line.

So that leaves 8 starts total(small sample size)

Gems-2(The start with Detroit was a gem and the game 2 vs. KC was a gem ruined by bad luck/fly ball/bad managing)
Choke jobs/lit up-2(the start vs. Boston+game 1 vs Texas in 2015)

quality starts-2(Game 6 in 2015 vs. KC and vs. Texas game 1 in 2011)

meh-1 game 5 vs Texas in 2010

I don't know how to classify-game 1 vs Texas in 2010. You could list this as a choke or a meh

So overall only really 2 or 3 what you could call bad games/chokes.

[mikecubs]

Dec 5, 2015 8:33:10 GMT -6 Bruinsfan said:

Hateeeeeee the signing of price.

Choker.

You almost had to sign Price or either Greinke to get an ace. Price/Greinke are as safe as it gets for signing free agent pitchers. If you write this year off next years free agent crop sucks. This year is as good as it gets for starters. Most teams lock up their young players these days. Next years free agent class royally sucks!!!

Next years starters

1. Stephen Strausberg-talented, major injury risk who will get hurt, Scott Boras client(this is as good as it gets)
2. Andrew Cashner- Former cubs, major injury risk, mid rotation starter, will be grossly overpaid, not an ace
3. Brett Anderson- Had a good year with Dodgers last year, took the qualifying offer, talented but missed most of his career with injuries. Will get hurt, not an ace.

4. Edison Volquez-Had a nice year for KC but not an ace, will turn 34 years old during 1st season with new team

5. Jared Weaver- Will be 34 opening day with new team. Had 4.59era last year, stuff is declining
Check out his pitch velocity. Yikes!!!!
www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4235&position=P

6.CJ Wilson- Will turn 36 with new team. Got hurt last year and pitched only 132 IP. Team thought he quit on them and wasn't that hurt

www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25256944/several-angels-teammates-skeptical-of-cj-wilsons-elbow-injury

7.Ivan Nova- major injury risk, had 5 plus era last year, not an ace, Never topped 170 IP.

As far as Price vs. Greinke I do think Greinke is less injury risk even though he's 32 but he's a weirdo who missed a season. Could he really handle the pressure of Boston? Would he have accepted an offer if you targeted him over Price and how much more would you have had to overpay to get him assuming he'd avoid Boston?

If you don't like Price/Greinke or this list then the only choice is to gut the farm system in a trade which is a very bad idea.

[mikecubs]

For the offseason after the next you've got

1. Jake Arrieta- Scott Boras client but the Cubs main plan is to lock him up, that's why no real bidding for Price/Grienke, the 2 year Lackey deal

2. Tyler Ross-Solid starter no ace, helped by Petco Park

3. Francisco Liriano- Good starter but will be 34 with new team

4. Hector Santiago- Was last year a fluke with the Angels?

Check out the lists for both years.

www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2017/starting-pitcher/

www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/2018/starting-pitcher/

Like the Price signing any better yet? LOL

[mikecubs]

Toronto Blue Jays’ winter of discontent: Skyrocketing salaries, harsh exchange rate making life tough

Over four days this week, baseball’s annual bacchanal crackled with gluttonous free-agent signings and landscape-changing trades. Meanwhile, the Toronto Blue Jays were talking about exchange rates and Darwin Barney.

During the winter meetings in Nashville, which concluded Thursday, the Blue Jays did not secure another starting pitcher nor join their rivals’ sudden extravagance around relief pitchers. (US$18 million for three years? Right this way, Tony Sipp.) The Jays did sign Barney to fill a latter-day John McDonald role and picked up Double-A pitcher Joe Biagini in Thursday’s Rule 5 draft.

With bullpen help their priority need, they reportedly came close to signing reliever Yusmeiro Petit, who chose a one-year deal for $3 million with Washington. Other free-agent options remain, but the bullpen bazaar has begun to make the Jays squirm. When it comes to year-over-year performance, relievers are notoriously volatile and now they’re getting crazy money too.

“It’s such a tough market to wade into and allocate so many of your resources to, but we know we’ve got to find some alternatives, and we know we’ve got to play in that market,” Blue Jays chief Mark Shapiro told reporters in Nashville. “To play in the upper ends of that market, it’s a dangerous place to play. You’d better have a lot of flexibility and your threshold for risk had better be very high.”

That last sentence underscores Shapiro’s predicament. As the Jays’ new president and CEO, he inherits a team that roared into the playoffs, gathering new fans and new revenue along the way. At the very least, he is expected to make that happen again. At the same time, market forces are raising complications.

The currency context
When Jays fans gather to discuss the state of the franchise, they tend to talk about two related needs: pitching and more money from club owner Rogers Communications. The words “exchange rate” seldom arise in those conversations. During his years in Cleveland, Shapiro didn’t have to think about that topic. He does now.

The Jays collect revenues in Canadian dollars and pay their players in U.S. dollars. On Thursday, the Canadian dollar was worth 73.36 cents against the U.S. dollar, an 11-year low. A year ago, it was worth about 88 cents. Shapiro says the 2016 payroll will rise – it was about US$140-million for the past season – but the exchange rate will chew up a sizeable chunk of the unspecified increase.

Shapiro says his goal is to build on the success of 2015 and make the team better for the long haul. But working for a public company beholden to shareholders, he knows he faces a delicate balance. The Jays are not the Red Sox, whose principal owner is one man, John Henry, who runs a company specializing in sports franchises and who, if he feels like it, can awaken one day and say sure, go ahead and spend US$217-million on David Price.

“There are obviously some other things that go into (the Jays’ payroll decisions), challenges with the exchange rate, and things that baseball fans shouldn’t have to think about, but when you run a business you do have to think about,” Shapiro said in Nashville. “Payroll is increasing, and now I think the obligation falls back on us to continue to run a successful business, to grow revenue, to support further increases in the years ahead.”

The Blue Jays certainly helped Rogers grow revenue in 2015. The team is part of Rogers’ media division, which also includes its various Sportsnet broadcast and digital platforms. For the first nine months of 2015, the media division had an adjusted operating profit of $58 million, an increase of 119 per cent over the same period in 2014, according to Rogers’ latest quarterly report. Much of that boost came from the Jays’ increased attendance (21 of their final 22 home games were sellouts) and new revenue from Sportsnet, which drew unprecedented TV ratings for Jays games.

Rogers uses hedge contracts to cut its risk on the exchange rate. During the first nine months of 2015, those contracts used an average rate of US$1.27, which meant Rogers would pay $877-million on anticipated expenditures of US$690-million company-wide. Reflecting what a difference a year makes, in 2014 Rogers’ hedge contracts used an average rate US$1.09.

No rush on Encarnacion and Bautista
The foregoing may not generate stimulating discourse on call-in shows, but it certainly forms the context for many of the Jays’ important decisions over the next year and beyond. Looming large are decisions on whether to extend the contracts of Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista beyond 2016.

That subject arose in Nashville when Encarnacion’s agent told the Jays that he will not negotiate an extension once the season starts. In short, get it done now, or risk not getting it done at all when the free-agent market opens next November.

Shapiro’s response: Don’t rush me. He said he and his top aides are focused on more pressing matters, including the recruitment of pitchers to provide depth at Triple-A Buffalo, where the current rotation consists of “five guys named ‘blank,’” Shapiro said.

The here and now
Those blanks represent fallout from the eye-popping trades over the past year that drove the Jays to a division championship before they lost to Kansas City in the ALCS. Former general manager Alex Anthopoulos gambled on those deals and won big-time in the short term. Had he stayed, he would have faced the same challenges that Shapiro confronts now.

“Most important is making sure those trades weren’t made for just a one-year run,” Shapiro said during an interview on MLB TV.

That means replenishing a farm system largely bereft of elite pitching prospects. That process will require astute drafting and lots of time. Meanwhile, to fill their bullpen needs, the Jays need to get cracking and get lucky. Talent seldom hides any more, and bargains are rare.

As well, management’s immediate priorities include preparing for potential arbitration hearings with eight players; hiring a new director of player development; and navigating an awkward management transition after the retirement of CEO Paul Beeston and the unexpected departure of Anthopoulos.

Shapiro inherited a very good team with its elite offence intact. But fans’ expectations are sky-high. And in the past week both the Red Sox and Yankees got better. The coming season is crucial in the Jays’ bid to build a perennial contender.

“Like any business, we’ve got to increase revenue and grow revenue to increase expenses, and the expenses are player payroll when it comes to a major-league team,” Shapiro said. “If we have a great year this year, that’s certainly going to afford us the ability to grow player payroll and player expenses.”

www.canada.com/sports/baseball/toronto+blue+jays+winter+discontent+skyrocketing+salaries/11580734/story.html

[mikecubs]

It's believed Bautista/Encarnacion want $20M plus per year extensions. Bautista will be 36 next offseason, Encarnacion 34. I'd pass and let someone else pay for the downside of their careers.

[mikecubs]

Meanwhile the Cubs signed Jason Heyward to an 8 year $184M dollar deal with a 3 year player opt out. This is a steal. They also signed Ben Zobrist to a 4 year $56M dollar deal. Zobrist deal will be ok for a year or 2 but he's almost 35 years old. The Cubs also traded starting 2nd baseman Starlin Castro to the Yankees for pitcher Adam Warren. Castro sucked last year but he's only 26. Warren will help a lot though and gives the Cubs a lot of depth. He can be a no 4/5 starter or reliever.

So far according to everyone the Cubs are the big winner of the offseason and are World Series favorites. Redsox also did well picking up Price and getting reliever Cameron Smith for Wade Miley was a steal. Smith is NASTY!

Cubs line up/age

2B- Ben Zobrist(34/35) Under control 4 years
CF- Jason Heyward(26/27) Under control 3 years
3B- Kris Bryant(24) under control 6 years
1B- Anthony Rizzo under control 6 years
LF- Kyle Schwarber(23)/Chris Coglan(30/31) -Schwarber is under control 6 more years, Coglan is a free agent after this season
RF- Jorge Solar(24) under control 5 years
C- Miguel Montero(32)/Kyle Schwarber(23) Montero is under control 2 more years
SS- Addison Russel(22) under control 6 more years,

Bench
OF-IF Chris Coglan(30/31) Free agent after year
IF-OF Javier Baez(23) under control 6 more years. Will play utility man role. Should take over for Zobrist in a few years. There are trade rumors about being traded for a young pitcher. Cubs should keep him
IF-Tommy LaStella(27)
C-David Ross(39)- Good club house guy but he sucks. I hate that Lester wants him as personal catcher.
IF- Brendan Ryan(34)- Can't hit. Got him in Castro trade. They shouldn't keep him since Baez can play anywhere and they also have Coglan for 2nd base
OF- The cubs need to sign a good defense/no hit center fielder so they can switch Heyward to right and take out Soler in late innings. Soler has no range.

Rotation
1. Jake Arrieta(30) Under control 2 more years. Cubs need to extend him because their minor league pitching sucks
2. Jon Lester(32) Under control 5 more years
3. John Lackey(37)- Under control 2 years. Won't be an ace like in St. Louis last year but will be a solid number 3 starter. Good playoff starter.
4. Kyle Hendricks(26) Under control 5 more years
5. Jason Hammel(33/34)- Free agent after season. ALWAYS sucks in the 2nd half. I bet he will be replaced by Adam Warren or Trevor Cahill

Bullpen
CL- Hector Rondon(28) Under control 3 more years
RH- Pedro Strop(30/31) Under control 2 more years. Great arm but gets wild once in a while
RH- Trevor Cahill(28)- Cubs resigned him to a 1 year deal. Pitched well in 2nd half after they signed him off scrap heap. Was promised chance to start. had some good years in Arizona
RH- Adam Warren(28/29)- Under control 3 more years. Good swingman, I think he will replace Hammel
RH- Justin Grimm(27/28)- Under control 4 more years. Had a good year last year. May spend time in minors because he has options left. Not fair if he does.
LH- Travis Wood(29)- Free agent after year. Had good year in bullpen last year. Former starter who made 1 all star team. Can start if worse comes to worse
LH- Rex Brothers(28)- Free agent after year. Got from Rockies. Injury prone. Had some good years with Rockies. Has great arm
LH- Clayton Richard(32) Free agent after year. Pitched well for Cubs after they got him off scrap heap.
RH- Neil Ramirez(26/27)- Has pitched well for Cubs but is always hurt. There is no room for him

Overall unbiased opinion this is by far the best team on paper. Anything can happen in the playoffs but this SHOULD be the year the curse ends. Castro trade could haunt the Cubs but they still got Zobrist/Heyward and when Zobrist slips they got Baez to replace him. The rotation is MUCH deeper with Lackey/Warren/ full year from Cahill. Also the Cubs will get a full year from Schwarber/ Addison Russell plus natural improvements from all the young players. Arrieta won't be as good as last year though and will take a step back. No way could anyone repeat that.

[mikecubs]

LOL San Francisco has just signed Johnny Cueto to a 6 year $130M deal. He also gets an opt out after 2 years.

[wolfmannick]

Blue Jays ownership drives me nuts. Other than AA trying to salvage his career with an all in playoff attempt last season the Jays have been unwilling to put any money into a winning team despite the fact that they could easily afford it and Toronto has proven that fans will sell out every game if they have a championship calibre team. I could really forgive Rogers not wanting to replace the Dome if they tried going for a World Series but they just don't want to invest much money into this team.

[mikecubs]

The problem is the Dome is a part of why Rogers is so cheap. Sure the Jays will sell out with a winner but if you invest big money in guys like Price and they get hurt and the team starts losing attendance will creator big time instead of just dropping some. It's a risk. With a losing team no one will go to the dome because it sucks. If they had a new park you can take more risks because your "floor" rises. When/IF the team starts losing IF a contract goes bad you still have the ballpark experience to sell.

It's not just that Rogers being cheap/not replacing the Dome is the problem. What AA did was criminal and will BADLY cost the Jays long term. AA should never be allowed to run an MLB team again.

The way to build a MLB team is to

1. Strip the team down to nothing like the Cubs/Astros/Pirates did and Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta are starting to do(San Diego should do this too but they are stupid and think they can still contend)
2. Get high picks
3. Develop the high picks
4. Bring them to majors when they are ready
5. Lock them up right away buying out 2-3 years of free agency(dollars for security trick)
6. Fill the few holes you have through free agency

To do all of the above though you need to maximize revenues in your market. Anyone can do 1-5(except Tampa and Oakland can't really number 5 much), 6 isn't for small markets or big markets who are lower 2/3rds markets because of some odd desire to preserve the 1980's.