Breakdown of How NHL Teams are Using the $83.5M Cap
Jul 24, 2023 11:51:24 GMT -6
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Post by bigoljetairliner on Jul 24, 2023 11:51:24 GMT -6
Does spending more on defensemen increase your chances of a Stanley Cup? How important are high paid forwards to a franchise's success? Is it worth paying a lot of money to goaltenders?
I decided to spend some time trying to figure this out by looking at how teams are spreading out the available funds between the various positions (F/D/G) under the NHL's 2023-24 $83.5 million salary cap. Admittedly, the rosters are far from set at this point in the summer, but it should gives us a good idea about approximate NHL averages.
Currently, 23 squads have a full forward compliment (including Winnipeg with a projected $1.25M/yr contract for Kulpari), 27 teams have the required 7 defensemen, and 30 franchises have their two masked men (according to CapFriendly). It was these teams that I used to come up with numbers below:
NHL AVERAGES:
Forwards: $47.4M
Defense: $24.5M
Goalies: $7M
-------------------------
Total: $78.9M
Cap: $83.5M
-------------------------
Wiggle Room: $4.6M
The first thing I noticed about these numbers is that it does seem that NHL GM's spread out the available funds fairly evenly throughout the positions; with both defenders and tenders averaging a $3.5M per year salary, while the forwards pull in slightly a bit more ($3.6-$3.8M).
There are incredible swings at each position in the data, including a $12M gap between the highest & lowest paid goaltending tandems (FLA-LA), a $24.4M divide between the extremes on defense (CLB-ARZ), and a $28.5M difference between the have & have nots at forward (TOR-NSH). Some of the more shocking items that jumped out were the two teams paying less than $3M for their goalie duos (LA - $2.5M/BUF - $2.75M) and Arizona's shocking $7.6M spent for 7 defensemen.
When you compare the Winnipeg Jets to the league averages, Cheveldayoff will spend around $43.1M on his forwards once he gets Kupari signed, $4.3M short of the medium. With $27.2M going to seven defenders, the Jets are $2.7M above the average in that category. Chevy currently has just under $8M allotted to the goaltending position, a million above the NHL norm.
Let's dig into the numbers for the goaltending position a bit to see the challenges Hellebuyck will face in trying to land his next big money contract.
Even with a large bump in the salary cap planned for next season, I think Helly & his agent will find it difficult to come close to the rumoured $9.5M per year ask. The only examples of contracts in the range were signed a long time ago, with Price inking in 2017 ($10.5M), then Bobrovsky ($10M) & Vasilevskiy ($9.5M) in 2019. Since then, only Sorokin's $8.25M/yr deal that kicks in 2024-25 has come close to those numbers. Since stars like Shesterkin & Oettinger don't get to negotiate contract extensions until July of 2024 at the earliest (both are signed through 2024-25), Hellebuyck won't get any further comparables until then.
Here's a list of the amount of salary each NHL team is spending on their goaltending tandems for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $7M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON GOALTENDERS:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s) ** - addition information
Florida Panthers Bobrovsky/Knight $14.5M
Montreal Canadiens Price/Montembeault $11.5M
Tampa Bay Lightning Vasilevskiy/Johansson $10.3M
Vegas Golden Knights Lehner/Hill $9.9M
Seattle Kraken Grubauer/Driedger $9.4M
Philadelphia Flyers Hart/Petersen $9M
Boston Bruins Ullmark/Swayman $8.45M
Calgary Flames Markstrom/Vladar $8.2M
Winnipeg Jets Hellebuyck/Brossoit $7.95M
Edmonton Oilers Campbell/Skinner $7.6M
Pittsburgh Penguins Jarry/DeSmith $7.3M
Minnesota Wild Fleury/Gustavsson $7.25M
Anaheim Ducks Gibson/Dostal $7.2M
Nashville Predators Saros/Lankinen $7M
New York Islanders Sorokin/Varlamov $6.8M **$11M in 2024-25
Ottawa Senators Korpisalo/Forsberg $6.8M
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Louis Blues Billington/Hofer $6.8M
Columbus Blue Jackets Merzlikins/Tarasov $6.5M
New York Rangers Shesterkin/Quick $6.5M
Washington Capitals Kuemper/Lindgren $6.4M
Detroit Red Wings Husso/Reimer $6.25M
Vancouver Canucks Demko/Martin $5.8M
Toronto Maple Leafs Murray/Woll $5.5M **$4.32M w/ Samsonov/Woll
Colorado Avalanche Georgiev/Francouz $5.5M
Carolina Hurricanes Andersen/Kochetkov $5.4M
San Jose Sharks Kahkonen/Blackwood $5.1M
Dallas Stars Oettinger/Wedgewood $5M
Chicago Blackhawks Mrazek/Soderblom $4.8M
Arizona Coyotes Vejmelka/Ingram $4.7M
New Jersey Devils Vanacek/Schmid $4.3M
Buffalo Sabres Comrie/Luukkonen $2.75M
Los Angeles Kings Copley/Talbot $2.5M
To me, I don't see any immediate pattern pointing to a specific spending range being the key to success. Expected strong teams like Tampa & Vegas are up near the top, while other contenders like Colorado & Carolina are in the middle, and potential juggernauts such as Dallas & Los Angeles are near or at the bottom.
Both Boston & Minnesota should jump up the rankings if they re-sign their young RFAs, while Toronto may move backwards a bit if they buyout Murray ($4.69M) and replace him with RFA Samsonov ($3.55M) at a cheaper rate.
The Winnipeg Jets sit in 8th place in goaltender salary, though with both Price & Lehner likely to head to LTIR, they will actually move up to the 6th spot.
With only seven of the NHL's 32 teams (21.9%) at this point planning on spending more than $9M on their goalies for the 2024-25 season, it does seem like Helly's agent is likely going to have to settle closer to the $8.25M range set by Sorokin. The Islanders' goaltender is getting paid that for his 29 yr old to 36 yr old seasons. If you extend that to Hellebuyck, who will be 31 yrs old in 2024-25, it seems reasonable that he could get $8.25M/yr for 6 seasons (until he's 36 yrs old). If a team signs him to that and backs him up with a league minimum contract, they would need to put out at least $9M in salary and join the top quarter of spenders in the NHL.
It does seem pretty remarkable that teams that are hoping to challenge for playoff spots like Los Angeles, Buffalo, and New Jersey aren't willing to pay for consistency between the pipes. While LA has definite cap issues, the other two could definitely make something work prior to the start of the regular season. Those GMs could also be willing to wait until the trade deadline to see if they are positioned for a playoff run before pulling the trigger on a Hellebuyck deal.
While I do wish all the moves were done this offseason, I can see the benefit of a trade deadline deal as well. Saw an article suggesting that Winnipeg should be able to get a 1st, a 2nd, and young prospect with top 6 forward potential for Helly at the deadline, which is close to what the Jets got for Copp from New York: Barron (bottom 6), Lambert (1st), Salomonsson (2nd), & Milic (5th).
Moving onto the guys just in front of those goalies, let's turn our attention to what NHL GMs are giving out to the defensemen. Here a list of the amount of salary each team is spending on their defensive units for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $24.5M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON DEFENSE:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s)
Columbus Blue Jackets $32M
Carolina Hurricanes $30M
Nashville Predators $30M
Boston Bruins $29M
Colorado Avalanche $28.5M
St. Louis Blues $28.5M
Vegas Golden Knights $28M
San Jose Sharks $27.6M
Vancouver Canucks $27.5M
Winnipeg Jets $27.2M
New York Rangers $27M
Los Angeles Kings $26M *need another defenseman
Calgary Flames $26M
Tampa Bay Lightning $25.7M
Seattle Kraken $25.6M
Pittsburgh Penguins $25.3M
----------------------------------------
Buffalo Sabres $24M
Philadelphia Flyers $24M
New York Islanders $23.6M
Edmonton Oilers $22.8M *Bouchard unsigned
Chicago Blackhawks $22.4M
Ottawa Senators $22.1M
Dallas Stars $22M
Toronto Maple Leafs $22M
Washington Capitals $21.7M
New Jersey Devils $20.7M *Bahl unsigned
Detroit Red Wings $20.5M
Florida Panthers $20.5M
Minnesota Wild $20.1M *Addison unsigned
Montreal Canadiens $13.1M
Anaheim Ducks $13M *Drysdale unsigned, plus another d-man
Arizona Coyotes $7.6M
Once again, I don't see any clear correlation from spending on defenders and team success. Although, there definitely are more teams that will likely end up in the playoffs in the top half of the list, when compared to the bottom 16 squads, so maybe it's worth spending at or above the league average. However, the highest spender (CLB) was amongst the bottom of the rankings last season and the low spending Florida Panthers made it to the Cup Finals, so there are no guarantees.
It does seem that the Arizona Coyotes & Montreal Canadiens can't be expecting to have much success this season, with an average of $1M to $2M per defenseman respectively, but who knows? The Ducks will likely end up around the $20M mark when they sign a couple d-men, while both Minnesota & New Jersey will climb closer to $23M when they ink their RFAs, leaving the Yotes & Habs in the under $20M category by themselves. You have to think it's very possible those two GMs will be looking to add someone prior to the season's start (i.e. Arizona = FA Dumba).
As it stands, the Winnipeg Jets are in 10th place in defensive salaries, which is likely where they will stay unless Chevy decides to move someone like Dillon, DeMelo, Schmidt, or Pionk. I did just read an article suggesting that the Penguins should stop chasing Erik Karlsson and instead ship their 1st round pick next year and defenseman Owen Pickering for Neal Pionk to solve their problems. If that offer was tendered, I'd really hope that Chevy couldn't agree quick enough.
Time for our final category, the centers & wingers of the NHL. Here a list of the amount of salary each team is spending on their forward units for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $47.4M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON FORWARDS:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s) ** - addition information
Toronto Maple Leafs $58.5M
Washington Capitals $56.1M
Dallas Stars $55.7M
Colorado Avalanche $53.5M *Meyers unsigned
Montreal Canadiens $53M
New York Islanders $52.9M
New Jersey Devils $52.6M
Los Angeles Kings $52.2M
Pittsburgh Penguins $51M
Vancouver Canucks $51M
Vegas Golden Knights $48.2M
Buffalo Sabres $48M
Calgary Flames $47.2M *need another forward
St. Louis Blues $47.2M
Tampa Bay Lightning $47M
New York Rangers $46.4M *Lafreniere unsigned
-------------------------------------------
Seattle Kraken $45.5M
Florida Panthers $44.8M
Edmonton Oilers $44.7M *McLeod unsigned
Ottawa Senators $44.7M
Detroit Red Wings $44.5M
Carolina Hurricanes $44.4M
Winnipeg Jets $43.1M **assuming $1.25M/yr for Kupari
Minnesota Wild $39.7M *need another forward
Philadelphia Flyers $39.5M
San Jose Sharks $38.6M
Boston Bruins $38.5M *Frederic unsigned
Arizona Coyotes $38.5M
Columbus Blue Jackets $38.5M
Chicago Blackhawks $35.6M
Anaheim Ducks $34.4M *Zegras/Terry unsigned
Nashville Predators $30M
Teams in the bottom half of the above list need to sign another 6 forwards, so quite a bit will change by the start of the season. The Ducks will make a huge jump when they finally get around to signing RFA Zegras to a potentially huge contract and RFA Terry to a fairly big one, while the Bruins will surpass the $40M mark when they get RFA Frederic re-signed. The Oilers could jump into the top 16 when they get RFA McLeod's name on the dotted line.
While the top has only 3 teams left with holes to fill, with the Rangers, Flames, & Avalanche needing to add salary for one more player (RFA Lafreniere, unknown UFA, & RFA Meyers).
Based on this list, it does seem that what NHL teams spend on the forward position certainly impacts how the respective squads will perform. While there is no guarantee that spending a lot of $$ will lead to success (see Montreal Canadiens in 5th, for example), there seems to be a bunch of non-playoff teams spending less than $40M on their forwards. When you consider that the Bruins & Wild will move into the $40M+ category when they fill in their rosters, how many likely playoff teams are in the bottom seven (NSH, ANA, CHI, CLB, ARZ, SJ, & PHI)? The data shows that the franchises in the bottom 16 that could reasonably expect playoff success are mainly really close to the $47.4M average (SEA, FLA, EDM, & CAR).
On the flip side, out of the top 10 teams in forward spending, there are a bunch of potential Cup contenders (TOR, DAL, COL, NJ, & LA), three others that should significantly challenge for a playoff spot (WSH, NYI, & PIT), and two others that may struggle to reach the post-season (MTL & VAN).
As it stands, the Winnipeg Jets will be joining other bottom half teams like Ottawa, Detroit, Minnesota, & Boston in a scrap for a wildcard spot or disappointment. Either way, these teams seem destined to end up in the "mucky middle", i.e. not much hope of playoff success or a great draft pick this season.
If, as the trade deadline approaches, Chevy finds the team he built outside of the playoff picture, then the Jets could really make a move for a late tank to improve their draft position by shipping out a bunch of players on the final years of their contracts (Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Niederreiter, DeMelo, & Dillon). They could get a pretty good haul of draft picks & prospects if this is how it plays out.
With the lack of rumours out there involving the Winnipeg Jets, I'm beginning to believe the opening day roster will pretty much look like it does now. Could be wrong, because all it could take to start a flurry of moves would be for either New Jersey or Buffalo to finally bite the Helly fishing lure that Chevy has been dangling in front of them all off-season.
TEAM FORWARD DEFENSE GOALTENDER OVERALL
* - team needs to sign addition player(s)
Vegas Golden Knights 11th 7th 4th 1st
Colorado Avalanche 4th* 5th 22nd 2nd
Tampa Bay Lightning 15th 14th 3rd T-3rd
St. Louis Blues 14th T-5th T-13th T-3rd
Calgary Flames 13th 13th 7th T-3rd
Seattle Kraken 17th 15th 5th T-6th
Pittsburgh Penguins T-9th 16th 10th T-6th
Montreal Canadiens 5th 30th 2nd T-6th
New York Islanders 6th 19th T-13th T-9th
Vancouver Canucks T-9th 9th 20th T-9th
New York Rangers 16th* 11th T-16th T-11th
Winnipeg Jets 23rd 10th 8th T-11th
Toronto Maple Leafs 1st T-23rd 21st T-13th
Florida Panthers 18th T-27th 1st T-13th
Washington Capitals 2nd 25th 18th T-13th
Columbus Blue Jackets T-28th 1st T-16th T-13th
Nashville Predators 32nd T-2nd 12th T-13th
Carolina Hurricanes 22nd T-2nd 23rd T-18th
Edmonton Oilers 19th* 20th* 9th T-18th
Philadelphia Flyers 25th T-17th 6th T-18th
Dallas Stars 3rd 23rd 26th T-21st
Los Angeles Kings 8th 12th 32nd T-21st
Ottawa Senators 20th 22nd T-13th 23rd
Boston Bruins 27th* 4th 25th* T-24th*
San Jose Sharks 26th 8th 24th T-24th
Buffalo Sabres 12th T-17th 31st 26th
New Jersey Devils 7th 26th* 29th 27th
Detroit Red Wings 21st T-27th 19th 28th
Anaheim Ducks 30th* 31st* 11th 29th*
Chicago Blackhawks 31st 21st 27th 30th
Minnesota Wild 24th* 29th* 30th* 31st*
Arizona Coyotes 28th 32nd 28th 32nd
I decided to spend some time trying to figure this out by looking at how teams are spreading out the available funds between the various positions (F/D/G) under the NHL's 2023-24 $83.5 million salary cap. Admittedly, the rosters are far from set at this point in the summer, but it should gives us a good idea about approximate NHL averages.
Currently, 23 squads have a full forward compliment (including Winnipeg with a projected $1.25M/yr contract for Kulpari), 27 teams have the required 7 defensemen, and 30 franchises have their two masked men (according to CapFriendly). It was these teams that I used to come up with numbers below:
NHL AVERAGES:
Forwards: $47.4M
Defense: $24.5M
Goalies: $7M
-------------------------
Total: $78.9M
Cap: $83.5M
-------------------------
Wiggle Room: $4.6M
The first thing I noticed about these numbers is that it does seem that NHL GM's spread out the available funds fairly evenly throughout the positions; with both defenders and tenders averaging a $3.5M per year salary, while the forwards pull in slightly a bit more ($3.6-$3.8M).
There are incredible swings at each position in the data, including a $12M gap between the highest & lowest paid goaltending tandems (FLA-LA), a $24.4M divide between the extremes on defense (CLB-ARZ), and a $28.5M difference between the have & have nots at forward (TOR-NSH). Some of the more shocking items that jumped out were the two teams paying less than $3M for their goalie duos (LA - $2.5M/BUF - $2.75M) and Arizona's shocking $7.6M spent for 7 defensemen.
When you compare the Winnipeg Jets to the league averages, Cheveldayoff will spend around $43.1M on his forwards once he gets Kupari signed, $4.3M short of the medium. With $27.2M going to seven defenders, the Jets are $2.7M above the average in that category. Chevy currently has just under $8M allotted to the goaltending position, a million above the NHL norm.
Let's dig into the numbers for the goaltending position a bit to see the challenges Hellebuyck will face in trying to land his next big money contract.
Even with a large bump in the salary cap planned for next season, I think Helly & his agent will find it difficult to come close to the rumoured $9.5M per year ask. The only examples of contracts in the range were signed a long time ago, with Price inking in 2017 ($10.5M), then Bobrovsky ($10M) & Vasilevskiy ($9.5M) in 2019. Since then, only Sorokin's $8.25M/yr deal that kicks in 2024-25 has come close to those numbers. Since stars like Shesterkin & Oettinger don't get to negotiate contract extensions until July of 2024 at the earliest (both are signed through 2024-25), Hellebuyck won't get any further comparables until then.
Here's a list of the amount of salary each NHL team is spending on their goaltending tandems for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $7M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON GOALTENDERS:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s) ** - addition information
Florida Panthers Bobrovsky/Knight $14.5M
Montreal Canadiens Price/Montembeault $11.5M
Tampa Bay Lightning Vasilevskiy/Johansson $10.3M
Vegas Golden Knights Lehner/Hill $9.9M
Seattle Kraken Grubauer/Driedger $9.4M
Philadelphia Flyers Hart/Petersen $9M
Boston Bruins Ullmark/Swayman $8.45M
Calgary Flames Markstrom/Vladar $8.2M
Winnipeg Jets Hellebuyck/Brossoit $7.95M
Edmonton Oilers Campbell/Skinner $7.6M
Pittsburgh Penguins Jarry/DeSmith $7.3M
Minnesota Wild Fleury/Gustavsson $7.25M
Anaheim Ducks Gibson/Dostal $7.2M
Nashville Predators Saros/Lankinen $7M
New York Islanders Sorokin/Varlamov $6.8M **$11M in 2024-25
Ottawa Senators Korpisalo/Forsberg $6.8M
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
St. Louis Blues Billington/Hofer $6.8M
Columbus Blue Jackets Merzlikins/Tarasov $6.5M
New York Rangers Shesterkin/Quick $6.5M
Washington Capitals Kuemper/Lindgren $6.4M
Detroit Red Wings Husso/Reimer $6.25M
Vancouver Canucks Demko/Martin $5.8M
Toronto Maple Leafs Murray/Woll $5.5M **$4.32M w/ Samsonov/Woll
Colorado Avalanche Georgiev/Francouz $5.5M
Carolina Hurricanes Andersen/Kochetkov $5.4M
San Jose Sharks Kahkonen/Blackwood $5.1M
Dallas Stars Oettinger/Wedgewood $5M
Chicago Blackhawks Mrazek/Soderblom $4.8M
Arizona Coyotes Vejmelka/Ingram $4.7M
New Jersey Devils Vanacek/Schmid $4.3M
Buffalo Sabres Comrie/Luukkonen $2.75M
Los Angeles Kings Copley/Talbot $2.5M
To me, I don't see any immediate pattern pointing to a specific spending range being the key to success. Expected strong teams like Tampa & Vegas are up near the top, while other contenders like Colorado & Carolina are in the middle, and potential juggernauts such as Dallas & Los Angeles are near or at the bottom.
Both Boston & Minnesota should jump up the rankings if they re-sign their young RFAs, while Toronto may move backwards a bit if they buyout Murray ($4.69M) and replace him with RFA Samsonov ($3.55M) at a cheaper rate.
The Winnipeg Jets sit in 8th place in goaltender salary, though with both Price & Lehner likely to head to LTIR, they will actually move up to the 6th spot.
With only seven of the NHL's 32 teams (21.9%) at this point planning on spending more than $9M on their goalies for the 2024-25 season, it does seem like Helly's agent is likely going to have to settle closer to the $8.25M range set by Sorokin. The Islanders' goaltender is getting paid that for his 29 yr old to 36 yr old seasons. If you extend that to Hellebuyck, who will be 31 yrs old in 2024-25, it seems reasonable that he could get $8.25M/yr for 6 seasons (until he's 36 yrs old). If a team signs him to that and backs him up with a league minimum contract, they would need to put out at least $9M in salary and join the top quarter of spenders in the NHL.
It does seem pretty remarkable that teams that are hoping to challenge for playoff spots like Los Angeles, Buffalo, and New Jersey aren't willing to pay for consistency between the pipes. While LA has definite cap issues, the other two could definitely make something work prior to the start of the regular season. Those GMs could also be willing to wait until the trade deadline to see if they are positioned for a playoff run before pulling the trigger on a Hellebuyck deal.
While I do wish all the moves were done this offseason, I can see the benefit of a trade deadline deal as well. Saw an article suggesting that Winnipeg should be able to get a 1st, a 2nd, and young prospect with top 6 forward potential for Helly at the deadline, which is close to what the Jets got for Copp from New York: Barron (bottom 6), Lambert (1st), Salomonsson (2nd), & Milic (5th).
Moving onto the guys just in front of those goalies, let's turn our attention to what NHL GMs are giving out to the defensemen. Here a list of the amount of salary each team is spending on their defensive units for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $24.5M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON DEFENSE:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s)
Columbus Blue Jackets $32M
Carolina Hurricanes $30M
Nashville Predators $30M
Boston Bruins $29M
Colorado Avalanche $28.5M
St. Louis Blues $28.5M
Vegas Golden Knights $28M
San Jose Sharks $27.6M
Vancouver Canucks $27.5M
Winnipeg Jets $27.2M
New York Rangers $27M
Los Angeles Kings $26M *need another defenseman
Calgary Flames $26M
Tampa Bay Lightning $25.7M
Seattle Kraken $25.6M
Pittsburgh Penguins $25.3M
----------------------------------------
Buffalo Sabres $24M
Philadelphia Flyers $24M
New York Islanders $23.6M
Edmonton Oilers $22.8M *Bouchard unsigned
Chicago Blackhawks $22.4M
Ottawa Senators $22.1M
Dallas Stars $22M
Toronto Maple Leafs $22M
Washington Capitals $21.7M
New Jersey Devils $20.7M *Bahl unsigned
Detroit Red Wings $20.5M
Florida Panthers $20.5M
Minnesota Wild $20.1M *Addison unsigned
Montreal Canadiens $13.1M
Anaheim Ducks $13M *Drysdale unsigned, plus another d-man
Arizona Coyotes $7.6M
Once again, I don't see any clear correlation from spending on defenders and team success. Although, there definitely are more teams that will likely end up in the playoffs in the top half of the list, when compared to the bottom 16 squads, so maybe it's worth spending at or above the league average. However, the highest spender (CLB) was amongst the bottom of the rankings last season and the low spending Florida Panthers made it to the Cup Finals, so there are no guarantees.
It does seem that the Arizona Coyotes & Montreal Canadiens can't be expecting to have much success this season, with an average of $1M to $2M per defenseman respectively, but who knows? The Ducks will likely end up around the $20M mark when they sign a couple d-men, while both Minnesota & New Jersey will climb closer to $23M when they ink their RFAs, leaving the Yotes & Habs in the under $20M category by themselves. You have to think it's very possible those two GMs will be looking to add someone prior to the season's start (i.e. Arizona = FA Dumba).
As it stands, the Winnipeg Jets are in 10th place in defensive salaries, which is likely where they will stay unless Chevy decides to move someone like Dillon, DeMelo, Schmidt, or Pionk. I did just read an article suggesting that the Penguins should stop chasing Erik Karlsson and instead ship their 1st round pick next year and defenseman Owen Pickering for Neal Pionk to solve their problems. If that offer was tendered, I'd really hope that Chevy couldn't agree quick enough.
Time for our final category, the centers & wingers of the NHL. Here a list of the amount of salary each team is spending on their forward units for the 2023-24 season, from highest to lowest, with an average of $47.4M.
NHL TEAMS BY MONEY SPENT ON FORWARDS:
* - team needs to sign addition player(s) ** - addition information
Toronto Maple Leafs $58.5M
Washington Capitals $56.1M
Dallas Stars $55.7M
Colorado Avalanche $53.5M *Meyers unsigned
Montreal Canadiens $53M
New York Islanders $52.9M
New Jersey Devils $52.6M
Los Angeles Kings $52.2M
Pittsburgh Penguins $51M
Vancouver Canucks $51M
Vegas Golden Knights $48.2M
Buffalo Sabres $48M
Calgary Flames $47.2M *need another forward
St. Louis Blues $47.2M
Tampa Bay Lightning $47M
New York Rangers $46.4M *Lafreniere unsigned
-------------------------------------------
Seattle Kraken $45.5M
Florida Panthers $44.8M
Edmonton Oilers $44.7M *McLeod unsigned
Ottawa Senators $44.7M
Detroit Red Wings $44.5M
Carolina Hurricanes $44.4M
Winnipeg Jets $43.1M **assuming $1.25M/yr for Kupari
Minnesota Wild $39.7M *need another forward
Philadelphia Flyers $39.5M
San Jose Sharks $38.6M
Boston Bruins $38.5M *Frederic unsigned
Arizona Coyotes $38.5M
Columbus Blue Jackets $38.5M
Chicago Blackhawks $35.6M
Anaheim Ducks $34.4M *Zegras/Terry unsigned
Nashville Predators $30M
Teams in the bottom half of the above list need to sign another 6 forwards, so quite a bit will change by the start of the season. The Ducks will make a huge jump when they finally get around to signing RFA Zegras to a potentially huge contract and RFA Terry to a fairly big one, while the Bruins will surpass the $40M mark when they get RFA Frederic re-signed. The Oilers could jump into the top 16 when they get RFA McLeod's name on the dotted line.
While the top has only 3 teams left with holes to fill, with the Rangers, Flames, & Avalanche needing to add salary for one more player (RFA Lafreniere, unknown UFA, & RFA Meyers).
Based on this list, it does seem that what NHL teams spend on the forward position certainly impacts how the respective squads will perform. While there is no guarantee that spending a lot of $$ will lead to success (see Montreal Canadiens in 5th, for example), there seems to be a bunch of non-playoff teams spending less than $40M on their forwards. When you consider that the Bruins & Wild will move into the $40M+ category when they fill in their rosters, how many likely playoff teams are in the bottom seven (NSH, ANA, CHI, CLB, ARZ, SJ, & PHI)? The data shows that the franchises in the bottom 16 that could reasonably expect playoff success are mainly really close to the $47.4M average (SEA, FLA, EDM, & CAR).
On the flip side, out of the top 10 teams in forward spending, there are a bunch of potential Cup contenders (TOR, DAL, COL, NJ, & LA), three others that should significantly challenge for a playoff spot (WSH, NYI, & PIT), and two others that may struggle to reach the post-season (MTL & VAN).
As it stands, the Winnipeg Jets will be joining other bottom half teams like Ottawa, Detroit, Minnesota, & Boston in a scrap for a wildcard spot or disappointment. Either way, these teams seem destined to end up in the "mucky middle", i.e. not much hope of playoff success or a great draft pick this season.
If, as the trade deadline approaches, Chevy finds the team he built outside of the playoff picture, then the Jets could really make a move for a late tank to improve their draft position by shipping out a bunch of players on the final years of their contracts (Hellebuyck, Scheifele, Niederreiter, DeMelo, & Dillon). They could get a pretty good haul of draft picks & prospects if this is how it plays out.
With the lack of rumours out there involving the Winnipeg Jets, I'm beginning to believe the opening day roster will pretty much look like it does now. Could be wrong, because all it could take to start a flurry of moves would be for either New Jersey or Buffalo to finally bite the Helly fishing lure that Chevy has been dangling in front of them all off-season.
TEAM FORWARD DEFENSE GOALTENDER OVERALL
* - team needs to sign addition player(s)
Vegas Golden Knights 11th 7th 4th 1st
Colorado Avalanche 4th* 5th 22nd 2nd
Tampa Bay Lightning 15th 14th 3rd T-3rd
St. Louis Blues 14th T-5th T-13th T-3rd
Calgary Flames 13th 13th 7th T-3rd
Seattle Kraken 17th 15th 5th T-6th
Pittsburgh Penguins T-9th 16th 10th T-6th
Montreal Canadiens 5th 30th 2nd T-6th
New York Islanders 6th 19th T-13th T-9th
Vancouver Canucks T-9th 9th 20th T-9th
New York Rangers 16th* 11th T-16th T-11th
Winnipeg Jets 23rd 10th 8th T-11th
Toronto Maple Leafs 1st T-23rd 21st T-13th
Florida Panthers 18th T-27th 1st T-13th
Washington Capitals 2nd 25th 18th T-13th
Columbus Blue Jackets T-28th 1st T-16th T-13th
Nashville Predators 32nd T-2nd 12th T-13th
Carolina Hurricanes 22nd T-2nd 23rd T-18th
Edmonton Oilers 19th* 20th* 9th T-18th
Philadelphia Flyers 25th T-17th 6th T-18th
Dallas Stars 3rd 23rd 26th T-21st
Los Angeles Kings 8th 12th 32nd T-21st
Ottawa Senators 20th 22nd T-13th 23rd
Boston Bruins 27th* 4th 25th* T-24th*
San Jose Sharks 26th 8th 24th T-24th
Buffalo Sabres 12th T-17th 31st 26th
New Jersey Devils 7th 26th* 29th 27th
Detroit Red Wings 21st T-27th 19th 28th
Anaheim Ducks 30th* 31st* 11th 29th*
Chicago Blackhawks 31st 21st 27th 30th
Minnesota Wild 24th* 29th* 30th* 31st*
Arizona Coyotes 28th 32nd 28th 32nd
