A Breakdown of the Pacific Division - Late Aug Edition
Aug 27, 2023 17:34:11 GMT -6
Ric O. likes this
Post by bigoljetairliner on Aug 27, 2023 17:34:11 GMT -6
Thought I would spend some of Sunday looking at how close the NHL's Pacific Division teams are to being ready for the upcoming season. Figured I would share what I found, as well as taking some guesses at their season's potential outcomes.
Anaheim Ducks:
The Ducks are one of the few teams with NHL-level RFAs left to re-sign this late in the off-season, with both Trevor Zegras & Jamie Drysdale remaining without a contract. At this point, CapFriendly has Anaheim's GM with $16,635,833 in cap space, but when the team sends the two extra players to the minors they could up that to $18,195,833.
In terms of highest contracts on the team, the top 4 include newly re-signed F Troy Terry ($7M), D Cam Fowler ($6.5M), G John Gibson ($6.4M), and UFA signing Alex Killorn ($6.25M). No doubt that Zegras will vault into the top spot when he puts pen to paper, even if he opts for less than the maximum allowable years. Drysdale's deal is a bit harder to predict, given the fact that he got into just 8 games last season due to injury. The young defender did put up 32 pts in his first full NHL season in 2021-22, so it's not like he didn't show his potential during his 3 year ELC. I'm guessing that the RHD will eventually end up with a bridge deal and the Ducks definitely have the cap to get both deals done.
Anaheim has made some interesting off-season moves besides the previously mentioned Killorn signing, including opting not to tender RFA F Max Comtois with a qualifying offer. They also brought in a trio of defenders in RD Radko Gudas, LD Robert Hagg, & LD Trevor Carrick through free agency, as well as trading for RD Ilya Lyubushkin in an effort to improve the NHL's worst defense (338 goals against).
It appears that they haven't done as much to improve the league's 2nd worst offense (209 goals for), the addition of Killorn to veterans like Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, & Brock McGinn should help some. As long as the Ducks continue to see growth from their younger players like Zegras, Terry, Mason McTavish, and possibly the 2nd overall pick of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Leo Carlsson, they should be more dangerous for opponent's defenders in the upcoming season.
Goaltending remains in flux, but the chance for Anaheim to move veteran John Gibson seems to be dwindling. The 30 yr old hasn't had a good statistical season since 2018-19 (.917%) and his great seasons were from 2015-16 to 2017-18 (.920% to .926%). The Ducks have ultra veteran Alex Stalock and promising 23 yr old Lukas Dostal as depth.
I believe I saw on the Nature Channel that it is typical to expect only baby steps at first when a rebuilding NHL franchise initially emerges from their den to make their first attempt at being a real NHL team. After 5 straight drafts with selections in the top 10 overall, it is expected any season that the Ducks will finally start trying to skate with the big boys, could it be this year?
End Result:
In my opinion, GM Pat Verbeek has improved his squad for the upcoming season and that should result in them being tougher to play against. However, it would take Gibson turning back the clock to give them any shot at a wildcard spot and any improvement might just pull them out of a top 5 selection in next year's draft.
Verbeek is set to sell off some assets at the trade deadline if/when things turn sour on the season to assist in the franchise's rebuild, with veterans Henrique (10 team no trade list), Silfverberg (12 team no trade list), and Lyubushkin on expiring contracts.
Calgary Flames:
It has been a frustratingly quiet off-season for Calgary fans to this point. The Flames started out by trading the rights to F Tyler Toffoli to the New Jersey Devils for F Yegor Sharangovich & a pick prior to the 2023 Draft. Since then they have signed 7 players, but only D Jordan Oesterle has a real chance to make the NHL squad.
At this point, CapFriendly has Calgary with -$213,333 in cap space with 12 F, 8 D, & 2 G on the NHL roster. The status of D Oliver Kylington looms large for the organization, but reports seem to indicate that he will be back for the 2023-24 season after missing the entire season last year for personal reasons. The 26 yr old LD had an impressive season in 2021-22 with 31 pts/+34 in 79 games, so if he could regain form the Flames could have an even better defense this year (13th least goals against last yr).
GM Craig Conroy has already assigned their 13th forward (Kevin Rooney) to the minors in attempt to get cap compliant, resulting in a $150k penalty. He could send an extra defenseman down as well and have about $550K to play with, but that won't fit a league minimum contract ($775k) nor Rooney's $1.3M. So it appears that Conroy still has some work left to do before the puck drops on the next NHL season. On paper, moving back up goalie Dan Vladar's $2.2M contract for a cheaper option (Dustin Wolf's $813,333) seems to be the easiest option to get under the cap, but the state of the goaltender market makes it much harder in reality.
The Flames are definitely a team at a crossroads this off-season, with 11 of 22 of their expected NHL players being on expiring contracts, including players like F Mikael Backlund, F Elias Lindholm, D Noah Hanifin, D Chris Tanev, D Nikita Zadorov, & D Oesterle.
Calgary had the league's 19th best offense last year under the always scowling Darryl Sutter and it will be interesting to see how new coach Ryan Huska deploys his forwards like Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman, Dillon Dube, Lindholm, Sharangovich, & Backlund in the top 9, but after that the roster might be a bit thin (Matthew Coronato, Jakob Pelletier, Walker Duehr, & Adam Ruzicka).
A lot of the Flames hopes this season relies on Jacob Markstrom bouncing back from an awful 2022-23 season (.892%) after a career year in 2021-22 (.922%). Vladar definitely isn't going to be the one who steps up if Markstrom falters, but it's possible Wolf is ready to show that he can bring what he's done in the AHL to the big league (.932% in 22-23 & .924% in 21-22).
End Result:
It is difficult to predict how Calgary will do this year, with so many things up in the air even this late in the off-season. With the current line-up, there is hope that with players like Huberdeau & Kadri getting more used to the organization in their second seasons on top of shedding what some players called an "oppressive" atmosphere under the previous coaching regime will lift the Flames back into playoff contention. If they can combine that freedom with solid tending from Markstrom then the southern Albertan team could even challenge for the top spot in the Pacific Division (and maybe get Lindholm to re-sign too).
Very much like our Winnipeg Jets, the Calgary Flames possibly have the talent to become a playoff team....but will all the uncertainly lead to a less than optimum on-ice performance?
If things go wrong, the Flames could be VERY active at the trade deadline with all those expiring UFAs that playoff teams may covet (Lindholm, Backlund, Hanifin, Tanev, & Zadorov).
Edmonton Oilers:
Heading north in Alberta, we get to the NHL's franchise in Edmonton, who also have some work left to do before pre-season games start up. CapFriendly has the Edmonton Oilers at $390,792 over the upper cap limit with 13 F, 7 D, & 2 G on their roster. I don't see a ton of options that GM Ken Holland can use to get under the cap, other than if they think Warren Foegele's $2.75M can be replaced with a cheaper forward option or they opt to move one of their defensemen (Ceci's $3.25M & Kulak's $2.75M) for a more inexpensive defender.
The GM didn't add many players this off-season (F Lane Pederson & F Connor Brown), rather focusing on spending their available money on re-signing their own RFAs (F Ryan McLeod & D Evan Bouchard).
Their league leading offense (325 GF) from last season appears to be as deadly as ever with mainstays Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins making the Oilers' top 6 mega-dangerous. Who fills the final top 6 spot and how the bottom 6 pans out will likely define how much of a Cup Contender Edmonton really is, with the aforementioned Pederson, Brown, McLeod, & Foegele fighting for spots with Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, & Raphael Lavoie.
On defense (17th least goals against), the franchise is running a familiar top 5 with LD Darnell Nurse, LD/RD Mattias Ekholm, RD Evan Bouchard, RD Cody Ceci, & LD Brett Kulak filling the roster spots. It appears that there could be a battle between RD Vincent Desharnais & LD Markus Niemelainen for the 6th/7th spots, with young LD Philip Broberg also in the running.
Goaltender Jack Campbell is coming off a pretty horrific first season with Edmonton (.888%) and the team has to be hoping he bounces back to his Toronto Maple Leaf-level. The Oilers are fortunate to have 24 yr old Stuart Skinner as a back up, as he has put up .913% & .914% in the past two seasons in that role.
With McDavid under contract for 3 more seasons and Draisaitl for 2, can the Oilers finally find a way to win it all with two of the best players in the world?
End Result:
The Edmonton Oilers finished in the top 7 in the NHL in regular season points last year and I really can't see a reason why they wouldn't finish around there in 2023-24. With improved play from the starting goaltending spot, I can see the Oilers possibly improving enough to overcome a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit and challenge for the Stanley Cup. The path will definitely be easier for the elite level Western Conference teams and anything can happen once you get to the Finals.
This franchise isn't ready to make any big changes for 2024-25, with only one expiring contract worth over $1M, so even if they were surprisingly out of contention by the trade deadline, it doesn't seem likely they would be very active.
Los Angeles Kings:
The NHL franchise in the City of Angels is another squad that appears to need to make additional moves before the season starts. CapFriendly has the Kings with $123,333 in space, but only 13 F, 6 D, & 2 G on their roster. I don't see an easy path to gain a minimum of $655K in space to fit a league min contract ($775k) for a 7th defenseman, other than moving Victor Arvidsson's $4.25M contract. However, I think that would damage LA's top 9 talent too much after what they lost in the Pierre Luc Dubois acquisition with the Winnipeg Jets. I'm sure GM Rob Blake won't be stumped and will figure out a way to get cap compliant without giving up a key piece.
The LA Kings weren't overly active this off-season, other than the PLD trade. They did add a couple goaltending depth options in Cam Talbot (.898%) and David Rittich (.901%) to challenge probable starter Pheonix Copley (.903%).
LA regulars on defense like RD Drew Doughty, LD Michael Anderson, and RD Matt Roy will be joined by LD Vladislav Gavrikov in his first full season as a King, along with newcomer LD Andreas Englund and promising prospects RD Brandt Clarke & RD Jordan Spence battling for spots. LA was 16th in goals against last year and their defensive core will have to play great to protect their questionable goaltending if they hope to improve on that.
Blake's team was tied for 9th in goal scoring in 22-23 and will try to overcome the loss of Iafallo/Vilardi/Kupari this season with possibly the best center depth in the league. A bold claim, but how many teams could match Anze Kopitar, Dubois, Phillip Danault, & Blake Lizotte (admittedly, they all may end up in the top 9). The other forward options include Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Arvidsson, Trevor Moore, Carl Grundstrom, Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, and Trevor Lewis.
Does the Kings gamble for Dubois and the resulting large contract end up paying immediate dividends?
End Result:
When it comes to how good the Los Angeles Kings could be this season, the real questions are goaltending and what impact the Kings-Jets trade will have on their offense. Even with below average goaltending, I still see LA as challenging for a playoff spot.
As a hockey player, Dubois brings a lot to be happy about but a deadly offensive touch is not exactly one of them. I could be wrong, but I see him topping out near the point per game mark in his career. Which is nothing to sneeze at and he brings plenty of other intangibles, such as physical play, drawing more penalties than he takes, etc. To make up for the lost offensive talent, LA's young forward talent will need to continue to make strides if they want to get in the top 10 in goals scored again, which should help the Kings mask whatever goaltending woes pop up over the season. If the experienced defensive core could improve their overall GA standings, then the Kings might just end up one of the teams to beat in the playoffs (especially if they can manage to pick up a goalie at the deadline).
Definitely a team that could use a Hellebuyck in net, but they don't have the assets or cap space to realistically get a deal done.
San Jose Sharks:
According to CapFriendly, the Sharks have 14 F, 8 D, & 2 G on their roster, yet even with an extra player they still have just a smidge under $4M in cap space to work with (despite $7.445M in dead salaries from Burns, Karlsson, Jones, & Balcers).
San Jose has taken on a lot of people's cast offs during this rebuilding off-season, acquiring F Anthony Duclair, G Mackenzie Blackwood, F Mike Hoffman, F Mikael Granlund, D Jan Rutta & D Leon Gawanke, while signing reclamation project F Filip Zadina after he was bought out by the Detroit Red Wings.
The Sharks are coming off a season where they were 8th worst in goals for and 3rd worst in goals against. Starting goalie Kaapo Kahkonen is coming off a rough 1st season in SJ (.883%) and Blackwood (.893%) hardly shores up the position.
GM Mike Grier has 6 returning defenders to choose from, with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Mario Ferraro, Radem Simek, Matthew Benning, Nikolai Knyshov, & Jacob MacDonald. The coaching staff also has newcomers Rutta & Kyle Burroughs to work with.
At the forward position, the Sharks have surely mixed things up by adding the 4 previously mentioned players to mainstays Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc, Alexander Barbanov, Luke Kunin, Oscar Lindblom, Nico Sturm, Fabian Zetterlund, & William Eklund.
The Sharks got less than they were expecting for a Norris winning defenseman, but at least they avoided retaining more than $1.5M over the next 4 seasons.
End Result:
Even with expected improved play from goalie Kahkonen, I really don't see how San Jose can escape from another bottom 5 finish in 2023-24 (4th last year). The Sharks are clearly just starting a rebuilding phase, as they only have two prospects under 24 yrs old expected to challenge for regular roster spots (Eklund/Ferraro). Therefore another poor season is just what the doctor ordered as they wait for their prospects to develop into NHLers. Grier will be adding to that prospect pool with 2 picks in each of the first two rounds in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
Seattle Kraken:
With just two full NHL campaigns under their belts, the recent expansion franchise in Seattle is already starting to push against the upper limits of the salary cap. CapFriendly has the Kraken with $943,424 in cap space, but they also have 13 F, 8 D, & 3 G on their roster, allowing them to shed an additional $1.16M-$762k when they pare down to 23 players.
The Seattle Kraken did lose forward Daniel Sprong and his 46 pts this off-season, but likely hope that newly acquired F Kailer Yamamoto will help replace that. GM Ron Francis' team finished 6th in goals scored last season and will be bringing back a lot of the same faces: Jordan Eberle, Matthew Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Tanev, & Eeli Tolvanen. 24 yr old forward Kole Lind will also be trying to make the Kraken after putting up 62 pts in 72 AHL games last season. Seattle's AHL affiliate Coachella Valley went on run in the AHL playoffs and Lind was a big part of it (31 pts in 26 games).
On the defensive side of things, Seattle will be bringing back many regulars after finishing in 15th in goals against last year. Vince Dunn, Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, Justin Schultz, William Borgen, & Cale Fleury will be the core, but they also brought in a couple players via trade: Brian Dumoulin (off-season) and Jaycob Megna (trade deadline).
Francis brought in goalie Philipp Grubauer to Seattle to solidify the net position for the new franchise, but his first two seasons as starter have been less than stellar (.889% & .895%). Another masked alternative is veteran Chris Driedger, but he didn't even get into an NHL game last season (.908% in limted AHL action). The final option is 27 yr old Joey Daccord, who blasted onto the scene last year by almost leading the Firebirds to a AHL Championship (.918% in regular season & .926% in playoffs). The GM signed Daccord to a $1.2M contract, which is just above the amount eligible to be buried in the minors (1.5 times the league minimum $775k = $1,162,500), but is much easier to take than the hit on sending Driedger down ($2,337,500). They just might choose to carry 3 goalies and still have around $1.7M in space to start the year.
Can the Kraken replicate or even improve on last season's performance?
End Result:
The Seattle Kraken surprised many people last season by finishing 12th in the NHL in regular season points. With only 10 or 11 teams in the Western Conference having a legitimate shot at the 8 playoffs spots, they could find themselves fighting for the wildcard spots with teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, & St. Louis if their team goaltending doesn't improve. Even under ideal circumstances, I'm not sure they could unseat the Division leaders, Vegas Knights & Edmonton Oilers, but they could really challenge the Los Angeles Kings for 3rd place and avoid the year-end race for a wildcard spot.
Another Pacific Division team that seems like a perfect fit for Hellebuyck, but I really don't see how they could make it work financially without the Jets agreeing to take Grubauer back in return (who would in turn have to waive his no trade clause). Out of all the players making more than $3M per year, Dunn is the only one without some form of trade protection, which adds other challenges to making a deal with Winnipeg.
Vancouver Canucks:
Despite the buy out penalty for Ekman-Larsson being at its lowest in 2023-24 ($146k), CapFriendly has Vancouver around $4.2M over the cap. From the sounds of it, forward Tanner Pearson's $3.25M will be heading to LTIR for the season, making GM Patrick Allvin need to find around $1M in space to get under the cap. Less clear is the status of defenseman Tucker Poolman, who's $2.5M salary could go on LTIR or allow them to send another defender to the minors and save $775-$850k making them ever so close to being cap compliant.
The Vancouver Canucks did add a couple of forwards in free agency (Pius Suter & Teddy Blueger) to help bolster last year's 13th best offense. They will join JT Miller, Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Andrei Kuzmenko, Conor Garland, Anthony Beauvillier, Nils Hoglander, Ilya Mikheyev, and a handful of others including 24 yr old Jack Studnicka.
On the defensive side of things, the Nucks benefit from the talents of LD Quinn Hughes, along with other veterans like Tyler Myers & Filip Hronek. The GM brought in a few defensemen to help improve the 9th worst team in goals against by signing Carson Soucy, Ian Cole, & Matt Irwin in free agency.
The net solely belongs to Thatcher Demko, who is coming off a down year (.901%) and he'll be backed up by Spencer Martin (.871%).
Things are hardly set in stone for Vancouver though, as there are constant rumours about Miller, Boeser, Myers, etc being moved. The franchise has a couple key talents in Pettersson, Kuzmenko, & Hughes, but only one of those guys in signed long-term coming into this season. Can the GM figure it out before the talent starts to look for a way out?
End Result:
If coach Rick Tocchet can get the best out of his lineup, he does have the weapons at his disposal to challenge for a wildcard spot. Highly dependent on improved goaltending from Demko and whether the new defensive additions can improve a leaky back end.
If I had to predict how it plays out, I would have to doubt that everything goes their way. My crystal ball says that they will end up either in a very tight wildcard race or just out of the playoff picture when the dust settles on the 2023-24 NHL season. Another year without a top 5 overall selection and more questions surrounding whether Pettersson will sign long-term.
Vegas Knights:
The 2022-23 Stanley Cup Champions are almost returning the entire team in the upcoming season, putting them over the salary cap by $4,148,317. However, with G Robin Lehner's $5M salary heading to LTIR and an extra defenseman on the roster, Vegas actually has about $1.6M in space to manuever.
The Knights were the 14th best scoring team last season and are bringing back familiar faces in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Jon Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy, Chandler Stevenson, Brett Howden, William Carrier, Keegan Kolesar, & Michael Amadio. The coaching staff also has a couple younger players in Pavel Dorofeyev & Paul Cotter looking for more icetime/roster spots. Depth was a key to the franchise's ultimate success last year and it doesn't seem any weaker for 2023-24.
Veteran guys like Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Zach Whitecloud, Nicholas Hague, & Ben Hutton return to try to improve on last years' 11th place finish in goals against, with shiny Cup rings to help drive their motivation.
The red pipes will be guarded for Vegas by a combination of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill (coming off his .932% on the way to the Cup). Thompson has been solid over the past two seasons (.915%) and the duo should give the Knights average or above tending.
Can Vegas defy the odds and pull off back to back championships?
End Result:
Even with average goaltending over the regular season, I could still see Vegas battling with Edmonton for the top spot in the Pacific. If they avoid long injuries to key offensive players and get great tending, then I could see the Knights not only challenging for the best of the West, but possibly in the entire league.
It will be interesting to see if Vegas can keep up that tenacious forecheck they used to win the Stanley Cup for another season, but sometimes it is difficult for teams to keep that intensity for long periods. Regardless, I have a hard time imaging a scenario where this franchise misses the playoffs in 2023-24.
Anaheim Ducks:
The Ducks are one of the few teams with NHL-level RFAs left to re-sign this late in the off-season, with both Trevor Zegras & Jamie Drysdale remaining without a contract. At this point, CapFriendly has Anaheim's GM with $16,635,833 in cap space, but when the team sends the two extra players to the minors they could up that to $18,195,833.
In terms of highest contracts on the team, the top 4 include newly re-signed F Troy Terry ($7M), D Cam Fowler ($6.5M), G John Gibson ($6.4M), and UFA signing Alex Killorn ($6.25M). No doubt that Zegras will vault into the top spot when he puts pen to paper, even if he opts for less than the maximum allowable years. Drysdale's deal is a bit harder to predict, given the fact that he got into just 8 games last season due to injury. The young defender did put up 32 pts in his first full NHL season in 2021-22, so it's not like he didn't show his potential during his 3 year ELC. I'm guessing that the RHD will eventually end up with a bridge deal and the Ducks definitely have the cap to get both deals done.
Anaheim has made some interesting off-season moves besides the previously mentioned Killorn signing, including opting not to tender RFA F Max Comtois with a qualifying offer. They also brought in a trio of defenders in RD Radko Gudas, LD Robert Hagg, & LD Trevor Carrick through free agency, as well as trading for RD Ilya Lyubushkin in an effort to improve the NHL's worst defense (338 goals against).
It appears that they haven't done as much to improve the league's 2nd worst offense (209 goals for), the addition of Killorn to veterans like Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano, & Brock McGinn should help some. As long as the Ducks continue to see growth from their younger players like Zegras, Terry, Mason McTavish, and possibly the 2nd overall pick of the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, Leo Carlsson, they should be more dangerous for opponent's defenders in the upcoming season.
Goaltending remains in flux, but the chance for Anaheim to move veteran John Gibson seems to be dwindling. The 30 yr old hasn't had a good statistical season since 2018-19 (.917%) and his great seasons were from 2015-16 to 2017-18 (.920% to .926%). The Ducks have ultra veteran Alex Stalock and promising 23 yr old Lukas Dostal as depth.
I believe I saw on the Nature Channel that it is typical to expect only baby steps at first when a rebuilding NHL franchise initially emerges from their den to make their first attempt at being a real NHL team. After 5 straight drafts with selections in the top 10 overall, it is expected any season that the Ducks will finally start trying to skate with the big boys, could it be this year?
End Result:
In my opinion, GM Pat Verbeek has improved his squad for the upcoming season and that should result in them being tougher to play against. However, it would take Gibson turning back the clock to give them any shot at a wildcard spot and any improvement might just pull them out of a top 5 selection in next year's draft.
Verbeek is set to sell off some assets at the trade deadline if/when things turn sour on the season to assist in the franchise's rebuild, with veterans Henrique (10 team no trade list), Silfverberg (12 team no trade list), and Lyubushkin on expiring contracts.
Calgary Flames:
It has been a frustratingly quiet off-season for Calgary fans to this point. The Flames started out by trading the rights to F Tyler Toffoli to the New Jersey Devils for F Yegor Sharangovich & a pick prior to the 2023 Draft. Since then they have signed 7 players, but only D Jordan Oesterle has a real chance to make the NHL squad.
At this point, CapFriendly has Calgary with -$213,333 in cap space with 12 F, 8 D, & 2 G on the NHL roster. The status of D Oliver Kylington looms large for the organization, but reports seem to indicate that he will be back for the 2023-24 season after missing the entire season last year for personal reasons. The 26 yr old LD had an impressive season in 2021-22 with 31 pts/+34 in 79 games, so if he could regain form the Flames could have an even better defense this year (13th least goals against last yr).
GM Craig Conroy has already assigned their 13th forward (Kevin Rooney) to the minors in attempt to get cap compliant, resulting in a $150k penalty. He could send an extra defenseman down as well and have about $550K to play with, but that won't fit a league minimum contract ($775k) nor Rooney's $1.3M. So it appears that Conroy still has some work left to do before the puck drops on the next NHL season. On paper, moving back up goalie Dan Vladar's $2.2M contract for a cheaper option (Dustin Wolf's $813,333) seems to be the easiest option to get under the cap, but the state of the goaltender market makes it much harder in reality.
The Flames are definitely a team at a crossroads this off-season, with 11 of 22 of their expected NHL players being on expiring contracts, including players like F Mikael Backlund, F Elias Lindholm, D Noah Hanifin, D Chris Tanev, D Nikita Zadorov, & D Oesterle.
Calgary had the league's 19th best offense last year under the always scowling Darryl Sutter and it will be interesting to see how new coach Ryan Huska deploys his forwards like Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, Andrew Mangiapane, Blake Coleman, Dillon Dube, Lindholm, Sharangovich, & Backlund in the top 9, but after that the roster might be a bit thin (Matthew Coronato, Jakob Pelletier, Walker Duehr, & Adam Ruzicka).
A lot of the Flames hopes this season relies on Jacob Markstrom bouncing back from an awful 2022-23 season (.892%) after a career year in 2021-22 (.922%). Vladar definitely isn't going to be the one who steps up if Markstrom falters, but it's possible Wolf is ready to show that he can bring what he's done in the AHL to the big league (.932% in 22-23 & .924% in 21-22).
End Result:
It is difficult to predict how Calgary will do this year, with so many things up in the air even this late in the off-season. With the current line-up, there is hope that with players like Huberdeau & Kadri getting more used to the organization in their second seasons on top of shedding what some players called an "oppressive" atmosphere under the previous coaching regime will lift the Flames back into playoff contention. If they can combine that freedom with solid tending from Markstrom then the southern Albertan team could even challenge for the top spot in the Pacific Division (and maybe get Lindholm to re-sign too).
Very much like our Winnipeg Jets, the Calgary Flames possibly have the talent to become a playoff team....but will all the uncertainly lead to a less than optimum on-ice performance?
If things go wrong, the Flames could be VERY active at the trade deadline with all those expiring UFAs that playoff teams may covet (Lindholm, Backlund, Hanifin, Tanev, & Zadorov).
Edmonton Oilers:
Heading north in Alberta, we get to the NHL's franchise in Edmonton, who also have some work left to do before pre-season games start up. CapFriendly has the Edmonton Oilers at $390,792 over the upper cap limit with 13 F, 7 D, & 2 G on their roster. I don't see a ton of options that GM Ken Holland can use to get under the cap, other than if they think Warren Foegele's $2.75M can be replaced with a cheaper forward option or they opt to move one of their defensemen (Ceci's $3.25M & Kulak's $2.75M) for a more inexpensive defender.
The GM didn't add many players this off-season (F Lane Pederson & F Connor Brown), rather focusing on spending their available money on re-signing their own RFAs (F Ryan McLeod & D Evan Bouchard).
Their league leading offense (325 GF) from last season appears to be as deadly as ever with mainstays Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins making the Oilers' top 6 mega-dangerous. Who fills the final top 6 spot and how the bottom 6 pans out will likely define how much of a Cup Contender Edmonton really is, with the aforementioned Pederson, Brown, McLeod, & Foegele fighting for spots with Dylan Holloway, Mattias Janmark, Derek Ryan, & Raphael Lavoie.
On defense (17th least goals against), the franchise is running a familiar top 5 with LD Darnell Nurse, LD/RD Mattias Ekholm, RD Evan Bouchard, RD Cody Ceci, & LD Brett Kulak filling the roster spots. It appears that there could be a battle between RD Vincent Desharnais & LD Markus Niemelainen for the 6th/7th spots, with young LD Philip Broberg also in the running.
Goaltender Jack Campbell is coming off a pretty horrific first season with Edmonton (.888%) and the team has to be hoping he bounces back to his Toronto Maple Leaf-level. The Oilers are fortunate to have 24 yr old Stuart Skinner as a back up, as he has put up .913% & .914% in the past two seasons in that role.
With McDavid under contract for 3 more seasons and Draisaitl for 2, can the Oilers finally find a way to win it all with two of the best players in the world?
End Result:
The Edmonton Oilers finished in the top 7 in the NHL in regular season points last year and I really can't see a reason why they wouldn't finish around there in 2023-24. With improved play from the starting goaltending spot, I can see the Oilers possibly improving enough to overcome a middle-of-the-pack defensive unit and challenge for the Stanley Cup. The path will definitely be easier for the elite level Western Conference teams and anything can happen once you get to the Finals.
This franchise isn't ready to make any big changes for 2024-25, with only one expiring contract worth over $1M, so even if they were surprisingly out of contention by the trade deadline, it doesn't seem likely they would be very active.
Los Angeles Kings:
The NHL franchise in the City of Angels is another squad that appears to need to make additional moves before the season starts. CapFriendly has the Kings with $123,333 in space, but only 13 F, 6 D, & 2 G on their roster. I don't see an easy path to gain a minimum of $655K in space to fit a league min contract ($775k) for a 7th defenseman, other than moving Victor Arvidsson's $4.25M contract. However, I think that would damage LA's top 9 talent too much after what they lost in the Pierre Luc Dubois acquisition with the Winnipeg Jets. I'm sure GM Rob Blake won't be stumped and will figure out a way to get cap compliant without giving up a key piece.
The LA Kings weren't overly active this off-season, other than the PLD trade. They did add a couple goaltending depth options in Cam Talbot (.898%) and David Rittich (.901%) to challenge probable starter Pheonix Copley (.903%).
LA regulars on defense like RD Drew Doughty, LD Michael Anderson, and RD Matt Roy will be joined by LD Vladislav Gavrikov in his first full season as a King, along with newcomer LD Andreas Englund and promising prospects RD Brandt Clarke & RD Jordan Spence battling for spots. LA was 16th in goals against last year and their defensive core will have to play great to protect their questionable goaltending if they hope to improve on that.
Blake's team was tied for 9th in goal scoring in 22-23 and will try to overcome the loss of Iafallo/Vilardi/Kupari this season with possibly the best center depth in the league. A bold claim, but how many teams could match Anze Kopitar, Dubois, Phillip Danault, & Blake Lizotte (admittedly, they all may end up in the top 9). The other forward options include Kevin Fiala, Adrian Kempe, Arvidsson, Trevor Moore, Carl Grundstrom, Quinton Byfield, Arthur Kaliyev, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, and Trevor Lewis.
Does the Kings gamble for Dubois and the resulting large contract end up paying immediate dividends?
End Result:
When it comes to how good the Los Angeles Kings could be this season, the real questions are goaltending and what impact the Kings-Jets trade will have on their offense. Even with below average goaltending, I still see LA as challenging for a playoff spot.
As a hockey player, Dubois brings a lot to be happy about but a deadly offensive touch is not exactly one of them. I could be wrong, but I see him topping out near the point per game mark in his career. Which is nothing to sneeze at and he brings plenty of other intangibles, such as physical play, drawing more penalties than he takes, etc. To make up for the lost offensive talent, LA's young forward talent will need to continue to make strides if they want to get in the top 10 in goals scored again, which should help the Kings mask whatever goaltending woes pop up over the season. If the experienced defensive core could improve their overall GA standings, then the Kings might just end up one of the teams to beat in the playoffs (especially if they can manage to pick up a goalie at the deadline).
Definitely a team that could use a Hellebuyck in net, but they don't have the assets or cap space to realistically get a deal done.
San Jose Sharks:
According to CapFriendly, the Sharks have 14 F, 8 D, & 2 G on their roster, yet even with an extra player they still have just a smidge under $4M in cap space to work with (despite $7.445M in dead salaries from Burns, Karlsson, Jones, & Balcers).
San Jose has taken on a lot of people's cast offs during this rebuilding off-season, acquiring F Anthony Duclair, G Mackenzie Blackwood, F Mike Hoffman, F Mikael Granlund, D Jan Rutta & D Leon Gawanke, while signing reclamation project F Filip Zadina after he was bought out by the Detroit Red Wings.
The Sharks are coming off a season where they were 8th worst in goals for and 3rd worst in goals against. Starting goalie Kaapo Kahkonen is coming off a rough 1st season in SJ (.883%) and Blackwood (.893%) hardly shores up the position.
GM Mike Grier has 6 returning defenders to choose from, with Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Mario Ferraro, Radem Simek, Matthew Benning, Nikolai Knyshov, & Jacob MacDonald. The coaching staff also has newcomers Rutta & Kyle Burroughs to work with.
At the forward position, the Sharks have surely mixed things up by adding the 4 previously mentioned players to mainstays Tomas Hertl, Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc, Alexander Barbanov, Luke Kunin, Oscar Lindblom, Nico Sturm, Fabian Zetterlund, & William Eklund.
The Sharks got less than they were expecting for a Norris winning defenseman, but at least they avoided retaining more than $1.5M over the next 4 seasons.
End Result:
Even with expected improved play from goalie Kahkonen, I really don't see how San Jose can escape from another bottom 5 finish in 2023-24 (4th last year). The Sharks are clearly just starting a rebuilding phase, as they only have two prospects under 24 yrs old expected to challenge for regular roster spots (Eklund/Ferraro). Therefore another poor season is just what the doctor ordered as they wait for their prospects to develop into NHLers. Grier will be adding to that prospect pool with 2 picks in each of the first two rounds in the 2024 NHL Entry Draft.
Seattle Kraken:
With just two full NHL campaigns under their belts, the recent expansion franchise in Seattle is already starting to push against the upper limits of the salary cap. CapFriendly has the Kraken with $943,424 in cap space, but they also have 13 F, 8 D, & 3 G on their roster, allowing them to shed an additional $1.16M-$762k when they pare down to 23 players.
The Seattle Kraken did lose forward Daniel Sprong and his 46 pts this off-season, but likely hope that newly acquired F Kailer Yamamoto will help replace that. GM Ron Francis' team finished 6th in goals scored last season and will be bringing back a lot of the same faces: Jordan Eberle, Matthew Beniers, Jaden Schwartz, Oliver Bjorkstrand, Yanni Gourde, Jared McCann, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Tanev, & Eeli Tolvanen. 24 yr old forward Kole Lind will also be trying to make the Kraken after putting up 62 pts in 72 AHL games last season. Seattle's AHL affiliate Coachella Valley went on run in the AHL playoffs and Lind was a big part of it (31 pts in 26 games).
On the defensive side of things, Seattle will be bringing back many regulars after finishing in 15th in goals against last year. Vince Dunn, Jamie Oleksiak, Adam Larsson, Justin Schultz, William Borgen, & Cale Fleury will be the core, but they also brought in a couple players via trade: Brian Dumoulin (off-season) and Jaycob Megna (trade deadline).
Francis brought in goalie Philipp Grubauer to Seattle to solidify the net position for the new franchise, but his first two seasons as starter have been less than stellar (.889% & .895%). Another masked alternative is veteran Chris Driedger, but he didn't even get into an NHL game last season (.908% in limted AHL action). The final option is 27 yr old Joey Daccord, who blasted onto the scene last year by almost leading the Firebirds to a AHL Championship (.918% in regular season & .926% in playoffs). The GM signed Daccord to a $1.2M contract, which is just above the amount eligible to be buried in the minors (1.5 times the league minimum $775k = $1,162,500), but is much easier to take than the hit on sending Driedger down ($2,337,500). They just might choose to carry 3 goalies and still have around $1.7M in space to start the year.
Can the Kraken replicate or even improve on last season's performance?
End Result:
The Seattle Kraken surprised many people last season by finishing 12th in the NHL in regular season points. With only 10 or 11 teams in the Western Conference having a legitimate shot at the 8 playoffs spots, they could find themselves fighting for the wildcard spots with teams like Calgary, Winnipeg, & St. Louis if their team goaltending doesn't improve. Even under ideal circumstances, I'm not sure they could unseat the Division leaders, Vegas Knights & Edmonton Oilers, but they could really challenge the Los Angeles Kings for 3rd place and avoid the year-end race for a wildcard spot.
Another Pacific Division team that seems like a perfect fit for Hellebuyck, but I really don't see how they could make it work financially without the Jets agreeing to take Grubauer back in return (who would in turn have to waive his no trade clause). Out of all the players making more than $3M per year, Dunn is the only one without some form of trade protection, which adds other challenges to making a deal with Winnipeg.
Vancouver Canucks:
Despite the buy out penalty for Ekman-Larsson being at its lowest in 2023-24 ($146k), CapFriendly has Vancouver around $4.2M over the cap. From the sounds of it, forward Tanner Pearson's $3.25M will be heading to LTIR for the season, making GM Patrick Allvin need to find around $1M in space to get under the cap. Less clear is the status of defenseman Tucker Poolman, who's $2.5M salary could go on LTIR or allow them to send another defender to the minors and save $775-$850k making them ever so close to being cap compliant.
The Vancouver Canucks did add a couple of forwards in free agency (Pius Suter & Teddy Blueger) to help bolster last year's 13th best offense. They will join JT Miller, Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser, Andrei Kuzmenko, Conor Garland, Anthony Beauvillier, Nils Hoglander, Ilya Mikheyev, and a handful of others including 24 yr old Jack Studnicka.
On the defensive side of things, the Nucks benefit from the talents of LD Quinn Hughes, along with other veterans like Tyler Myers & Filip Hronek. The GM brought in a few defensemen to help improve the 9th worst team in goals against by signing Carson Soucy, Ian Cole, & Matt Irwin in free agency.
The net solely belongs to Thatcher Demko, who is coming off a down year (.901%) and he'll be backed up by Spencer Martin (.871%).
Things are hardly set in stone for Vancouver though, as there are constant rumours about Miller, Boeser, Myers, etc being moved. The franchise has a couple key talents in Pettersson, Kuzmenko, & Hughes, but only one of those guys in signed long-term coming into this season. Can the GM figure it out before the talent starts to look for a way out?
End Result:
If coach Rick Tocchet can get the best out of his lineup, he does have the weapons at his disposal to challenge for a wildcard spot. Highly dependent on improved goaltending from Demko and whether the new defensive additions can improve a leaky back end.
If I had to predict how it plays out, I would have to doubt that everything goes their way. My crystal ball says that they will end up either in a very tight wildcard race or just out of the playoff picture when the dust settles on the 2023-24 NHL season. Another year without a top 5 overall selection and more questions surrounding whether Pettersson will sign long-term.
Vegas Knights:
The 2022-23 Stanley Cup Champions are almost returning the entire team in the upcoming season, putting them over the salary cap by $4,148,317. However, with G Robin Lehner's $5M salary heading to LTIR and an extra defenseman on the roster, Vegas actually has about $1.6M in space to manuever.
The Knights were the 14th best scoring team last season and are bringing back familiar faces in Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, William Karlsson, Jon Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy, Chandler Stevenson, Brett Howden, William Carrier, Keegan Kolesar, & Michael Amadio. The coaching staff also has a couple younger players in Pavel Dorofeyev & Paul Cotter looking for more icetime/roster spots. Depth was a key to the franchise's ultimate success last year and it doesn't seem any weaker for 2023-24.
Veteran guys like Alex Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez, Shea Theodore, Brayden McNabb, Zach Whitecloud, Nicholas Hague, & Ben Hutton return to try to improve on last years' 11th place finish in goals against, with shiny Cup rings to help drive their motivation.
The red pipes will be guarded for Vegas by a combination of Logan Thompson and Adin Hill (coming off his .932% on the way to the Cup). Thompson has been solid over the past two seasons (.915%) and the duo should give the Knights average or above tending.
Can Vegas defy the odds and pull off back to back championships?
End Result:
Even with average goaltending over the regular season, I could still see Vegas battling with Edmonton for the top spot in the Pacific. If they avoid long injuries to key offensive players and get great tending, then I could see the Knights not only challenging for the best of the West, but possibly in the entire league.
It will be interesting to see if Vegas can keep up that tenacious forecheck they used to win the Stanley Cup for another season, but sometimes it is difficult for teams to keep that intensity for long periods. Regardless, I have a hard time imaging a scenario where this franchise misses the playoffs in 2023-24.
