A Breakdown of the Central Division - Late Aug Edition
Aug 31, 2023 18:07:45 GMT -6
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Post by bigoljetairliner on Aug 31, 2023 18:07:45 GMT -6
Arizona Coyotes:
The Coyotes have around $21.4M in dead cap space on LTIR with Shea Weber, Jakob Voracek, & former Winnipeg Jet Bryan Little (plus $20k due to Ekman-Larsson buy out by Vancouver). Even with an extra forward & defenseman on their NHL roster, Arizona still has $3,903,690 remaining under the salary cap's uppermost limit.
GM Bill Armstrong has had a fairly active off-season, picking up RD Sean Durzi in a trade with the Los Angeles Kings and signing a bunch of free agents: RD Matt Dumba, RD Troy Stecher, F Jason Zucker, F Alex Kerfoot, F Zach Sanford, & LD Travis Dermott. They also signed F Alex Galchenyuk, but that only last two weeks before his contract was terminated.
The Yotes were the 5th worst team in the NHL at scoring goals last season and they are hoping the additions of Kerfoot & Zucker will help their young core improve that statistic. With an average age of 25 yrs, the available forward options include key players like Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz and young guns with higher potential like Logan Cooley, Barrett Hayden, Matias Maccelli, Dylan Guenther, & Jack McBain. The roster is filled out with veterans like Nick Bjugstad, Travis Boyd, Liam O'Brien, & Michael Carcone.
The additions of Durzi, Dumba, Stecher, & Dermott to veteran defender Joshua Brown and 22-24 yr olds Juuso Valimaki, JJ Moser, & Victor Soderstrom will try to help the squad improve on last years' 8th worst goals against.
The Coyotes have a pretty good starting goalie in Karel Vejmelka, though his .900 save percentage isn't as impressive as the Winnipeg Jets often made him look. He will be backed up by Connor Ingram, who joined Arizona last year after spending a couple of seasons in Milwaukee frustrating Manitoba Moose scorers. Ingram put up a .907 save percentage in 27 NHL games last year, giving them a decent back up option.
The Arizona Coyotes have had 5 picks in the top 12 overall in the past three drafts and a massive 12 in the first two rounds in that same span. They also had picks in the top 12 in six of the eight drafts before that. After finishing 27th in the NHL in 2022-23, is this the season the Yotes step into the wildcard picture?
End Result:
I believe the off-season additions made by Arizona will result in a better offense, however the defensive additions will likely fail to deliver the improvements they were hoping for. The potential of seeing young stars like Cooley & Guenter break into the NHL will keep things interesting for Coyotes' fans, as will the never-ending search for the team's future arena site. There is the potential for teams like Columbus and Montreal to leap frog Arizona this season, but those squads have to face the better depth of the Eastern Conference more often. Overall, I would be pretty surprised if the Coyotes escape the bottom 10 of the NHL, but they won't be an easy W for opponents on most nights.
At the trade deadline, the GM can look to flip guys on expiring contracts such as Zucker, Dumba, or maybe even goalie Vejmelka (though he has 2 yrs left).
Chicago Blackhawks:
Even with $8M in dead cap space as a result of buy outs, retained salary, and recapture penalties, the Blackhawks are still $12,864,876 under the ceiling with a full NHL roster of players.
After winning the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, Chicago possibly looked to accelerate their rebuilding plan a bit and added forwards Corey Perry, Taylor Hall, & Nick Foligno via trade and Ryan Donato in free agency. The NHL's worst scoring team last season will get a boost from adding those players to veterans like Tyler Johnson, Andreas Athanasiou, Jason Dickinson, & Colin Blackwell, along with younger players such as Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, Cole Guttman, & Mackenzie Entwistle. After watching Lukas Reichel playing for Rockford in the AHL the past couple seasons, I wonder if he'll be able to grab a spot in Chicago this season.
Despite being the 6th worst at giving up goals in 2022-23, GM Kyle Davidson has done nothing to address either the defense or goaltending. Petr Mrazek will be returning as the 1A option after putting up a .894 save % in his first season as a Hawk, with Arvid Soderblom as a potential 1B. Unfortunately, he also had a .894 save % in the NHL last year in limited time, so both masked men will be looking to bounce back.
On the blueline, the top 4 players are likely going to be Seth Jones, Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Murphy, & Jarred Tinordi. Fighting to fill out the roster will be 24 yr old Filip Roos and 21 yr old Wyatt Kaiser & Isaak Phillips. One of their high-end prospects Kevin Korchinski could also be in the mix, with the only options being the NHL or back to Juniors for him.
The Hawks added some goal scoring talent in Bedard & Hall this summer, but will it be enough to improve from the worst scoring team in the league to a wildcard contender?
End Result:
This may sound a bit harsh, but in my opinion, none of Chicago's forward/defense/goalie units are even NHL average level. Yes, they have some good players mixed in there, but unless some drastic changes occur in the future, I foresee Bedard having a few non-playoff seasons to start his career. The Blackhawks do have four 1st round and five 2nd round selections in the next two drafts to help speed up the rebuild around the potential superstar.
Failing to keep up offensively with the rest of the league without having strong defense and goaltending will end up with the GM anxiously watching the NHL's draft lottery once again. With a total of eight NHL roster players a season away from unrestricted free agency, the Hawks can move plenty of people at the deadline (Johnson, Perry, Foligno, Dickinson, Zaitsev, & Mrazek).
Colorado Avalanche:
Late in August, CapFriendly has Colorado over the cap limit by $4,975,000 and still needing a 13th forward because captain Gabriel Landeskog will be out for the entire 2023-24 season. With his $7M contract going to LTIR, the Avalanche still have $2,025,000 left to try and fill the void.
It won't be entirely up to whomever GM Chris MacFarland adds with that money, because he made quite a few trades and some free agent signings as well. In three seperate transactions, the Avs acquired forwards Fredrik Olofsson (DAL), Ryan Johansen (NSH), & Ross Colton (TB), along with picking up minor league defenseman Gianni Fairbrother (MTL). Colorado were active in free agency, re-signing some of their own players (D Bowen Byram, F Andrew Cogliano, & F Ben Meyer) on top of getting Olofsson & Colton new contracts. In unrestricted free agency, MacFarland kept improving his forward depth with signings of Miles Wood & Jonathan Drouin (and former Manitoba Moose goalie Arvid Holm).
The Avalanche were 9th in goals scored last season and while the loss of Landeskog can't be glossed over, the franchise certainly did their best to add players (Olofsson, Johansen, Colton, Wood, & Drouin) to the returning core of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Logan O'Connor, and the previously mentioned Cogliano & Meyer. The team has signed Peter Holland & Joel Kiviranta to professional tryouts (PTOs) to potentially compete for contracts for this season.
Colorado also finished 2022-23 in 9th place in goals allowed and from appearances, it looks like they will be rolling out the same starting seven: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, Josh Manson, Devon Toews, Byram, Kurtis MacDermid, & Jack Johnson.
Also staying the same, the goaltending duo will be Alexander Georgiev and Pavel Francouz once again. The tandem played well last season, with Georgiev putting up a .919 save % in 62 starts, while Francouz filled in admirably in his 16 appearances (.915%).
How will the Avs deal without their captain and how will the many forwards they brought in gel?
End Result:
After a disappointing playoffs, Colorado will be looking to secure a top 4 Western Conference spot again this season and then get down to the serious work of the post-season. I can't really see a reason why they won't be successful, even without Landeskog's point per game production. If Colton & Johansen thrive in the new atmosphere, then the team could really become a real Cup contender.
The Avs are built to mainly stay together in 2024-25 (main 9 forwards, 4 defensemen, & a goalie signed), so if by some disaster they are out of a playoff spot at the deadline, I can't see them being very active.
Dallas Stars:
CapFriendly has Dallas at $317,829 over the salary cap's top limit, but they also have 8 defensemen on their NHL roster, so getting below will not be an issue.
The Stars are coming off a pretty impressive regular season in 22/23, finishing 7th in goals scored and 3rd in goals against.
On the blueline, Dallas GM Jim Nill is bringing back seven regulars in Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley, & Joel Hanley. However, he did add Gavin Bayreuther in free agency to the mix as well, so a waiver exempt player like 22 yr old LD Harley or a veteran like 32 yr old LD Hanley may end up as the odd man out. 36 yr old veteran Jordie Benn will also be attending training camp on a PTO to challenge for a spot.
Texas' NHL team is hoping to remain a high scoring team in 2023-24 with returning forwards such as Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Mason Marchment, Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa, Evgeni Dadonov, Ty Dellandrea, & Wyatt Johnson. To this core, the GM inserted free agents like Craig Smith (16 pts last yr), Matt Duchene (56 pts), & Sam Steel (28 pts).
The goal crease will be defended by returning starter Jake Oettinger (.919% last yr) and back up Scott Wedgewood (.915%), so the Stars should be once again be in good shape at that position.
The GM tinkered around the edges of a talented NHL team this off-season, will it be enough to give Dallas a long post-season run?
End Result:
There is a big chance that the Central Division title will come down to Dallas and Colorado again this season. Both squads are built very much the same, with strong goaltending/defense and some high-end talent up front to carry the offense. The Stars won their last 7 games of the regular season and almost caught the Avalanche last year for the title. Barring major injuries to either team, I think the battle will be that tight again in 2023-24.
The Dallas Stars have a few players on expiring contracts that could be trade bait at the deadline (Pavelski, Duchene, Smith), but I expect the GM to be a buyer, not a seller.
Minnesota Wild:
Minnesota still has things it needs to get done before training camp, with only 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster and RFA defenseman Calen Addison (29 pts in 62 games in 22/23) still unsigned. CapFriendly has the Wild with just $1,643,079 in cap space to fill those two remaining spots and if Addison was paid his true value, the team probably wouldn't have any money left. However, Minnesota did qualify the young defenseman for $787.5k, so it is possible that he signs that deal for one season, giving Wild GM Bill Guerin $855,579 to sign or promote a 13th forward.
These cap issues are mainly due to the ongoing costs related to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, which will take up $14,743,588 of the Wild's cap this season (and again next year, before dropping to $1,666,666 for the next four years). Therefore, Minnesota wasn't a player during free agency and really only added F Pat Maroon and minor leaguer F Maxim Cajkovic.
The goaltending tandem of Filip Gustavsson (.931%) and Marc-Andre Fleury (.908%) are back to help the franchise remain as one of the stingiest NHL teams (tied for 7th in GA with the Jets).
If Guerin can get Addison's name on a contract, Minnesota will have the same seven defensemen to work with in 2023-24, other than the departing FA Matt Dumba. Captain Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Jacob Middleton, Alex Goligoski, Jon Merrill, Brock Faber, & Addison will give the squad a good chance at maintaining their defensive proficiency.
On offense, the Wild were 22nd in goals scored (one behind Winnipeg) last season and are gambling that newly acquired Maroon and the promoted 21 yr old Marco Rossi will help their core light the lamp a bit more often. 'Sota will try to use impressive younger forwards like Kiril Kaprizov and Matt Boldy and combine them with veterans Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno, Frederick Gauthier, Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman, Brandon Duhaime, & Connor Dewar to get the job done.
Can Minnesota get their last RFA signed without having to make any moves? Can they continue to be a playoff team despite their dead cap issues?
End Result:
The Wild will have to rely on their strong defense & goaltending once again this season if they hope to get back to the post-season. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that Minnesota's offense will be just as low scoring as last season despite deadly Kaprizov being on the team, unless the bottom six surpass expectations. A low scoring offense didn't stop them from clearing the 100 pt ceiling in 22-23, so I expect our southern neighbours to challenge for a playoff spot once again. High end outlook = locking up a spot before the year-end push VS low end outlook = in a tight wildcard race, but just miss out on the last spot.
If the latter prediction comes true, then the Wild might not even get a chance to move veterans on expiring contracts like Foligno, Zuccarello, & Hartman at the deadline.
Nashville Predators:
Despite having over $8.8M tied in buyouts (Duchene/Turris) and retained salary (Johansen/Ekholm), CapFriendly still has Nashville $7,906,635 under the upper cap limit. An oddly built team at this point, with only six forwards making more than $1M/year (Forsberg is the only one over $5M), yet all seven defensemen and two goalies are making at least $2M/yr.
Other than buying out Matt Duchene this off-season, Predator GM Barry Trotz focused on re-signing his own players, but did bring in F Ryan O'Reilly and D Luke Schenn through free agency.
After finishing 6th worst in scoring last year, O'Reilly will be joining Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons, Cody Glass, Yakov Trenin, Denis Gurianov, Thomas Novak, Mark Jankowski, Kiefer Sherwood, & Cole Smith. The Preds will also be counting on key contributions from youngsters Philip Tomasino, Juuso Parssinen, & Luke Evangelista to improve their goal scoring abilities.
Nashville wound up 12th in goals against in 2022-23 and will try to improve with the addition of Schenn and a full season of Tyson Barrie, in combination with regulars Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh, Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabro, & Jeremy Lauzon.
Smashville's main masked man will be Juuse Saros, who is coming off back-to-back stellar seasons (.919% & .918%) as the starter (60+ games). 28 yr old Kevin Lankinen will be the second stringer once again, after putting up a .916 save % in 19 appearances last season.
Can Trotz work his magic and drastically turn around the Predators' fortunes? He once did it as a head coach with the Islanders, but has a much more difficult task as GM in Nashville.
End Result:
At this point, it seems to me that Nashville can expect above average goaltending and defense, but the Preds are another team that might find it difficult to score in 23-24. Between cap penalties and available space, Trotz is spending $16M less than the upper limit on the actual on-ice players. So I don't think he'll really be that surprised when they miss the post-season action in his first season. No doubt the GM will be happy about his upcoming three 1st round selections and four 2nd rounders in the next two drafts though.
Despite having 12 players on the last year of their deals, Nashville doesn't have much in terms of prime trade deadline candidates (maybe Barrie?).
St. Louis Blues:
CapFriendly has St. Louis with $293,571 left under the cap, with 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their NHL rosters. It has been a relatively quiet off-season for GM Doug Armstrong and the Blues, though they did trade for F Kevin Hayes and signed F Oskar Sundqvist as a UFA.
The 2022-23 season was not a great one for the Central Division franchise, especially defensively where they finished tied for 5th worst in goals against. Part of that was due to another below average season from goalie Jordan Binnington (.894%/.901% past two yrs). The Blues may get some help in the form of a 23 yr old Winnipeger named Joel Hofer. The young tender only made 6 NHL appearances last season (.905%), but was pretty stellar in the AHL with Springfield (.921%).
Other than the addition of Schenn, the team didn't address the defensive unit and the newcomer will join defenders Justin Falk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy, Marco Scandella, Robert Bortuzzo, & Calle Rosen. 23 yr old Tyler Tucker saw 26 games at the NHL level in 22-23 and will be trying to knock a veteran like Rosen to the minors with a good training camp.
The Blues were in the middle of the NHL in goal scoring (16th) last season and with the additions of Hayes & Sundqvist, at least tried to improve in that statistic in the off-season. Main forwards like Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brandon Saad give St. Louis a base to work with and will look to reclamation projects like Jakub Vrana & Kasperi Kapanen to provide more depth. To round out the line up, the coaching staff still has options in veteran Samuel Blais, as well as youngsters Jake Neighbours, Alexey Toropchenko, & Nikita Alexandrov.
After missing the playoffs last season, can St. Louis find a way back this season? Will the new players shore up the defense and spark the offense?
End Result:
While the Blues are only a season removed from 109 pts and a playoff berth, I feel like they will need to get a lot of breaks to be that effective in 2023-24. They would need Binnington to return to his Cup-winning form, Schenn to be monster on defense, and Hayes to be much better than a 50 pt player.
That being said, I don't see why St. Louis can't hang around enough to become a major obstacle in the Western Division wildcard race. At the most optimistic, the team could uproot my expected 3rd in the Central team (MIN). At worst, the GM will be figuring out who he should try to move at the deadline. Maybe they will discover a new starter in Hofer throughout the year and that could be a big win, despite the 4 remaining years on Binnington's contract.
The Blues do have a few upcoming UFAs, but I am not sure how coveted they would be at the deadline (forwards Kapanen, Vrana, Blais, & d-man Scandella).
Winnipeg Jets:
With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders, CapFriendly has Winnipeg with $1,779,643 in wiggle room (despite the $2.75M hit for the Blake Wheeler buyout). While the Jets don't need to make any further transactions to become cap compliant, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff still has to figure out what to do about his stars (Connor Hellebuyck & Mark Scheifele) that are on expiring contracts and potentially trim down the 10 defensemen they have that are NHL-ready (or close).
Tied for 7th with Minnesota in goals allowed, the Winnipeg Jets played well defensively for the most part and as it stands it appears they will be returning Connor Hellebuyck (.920 save % - 3rd best of his career) as their starter. Free agent signing Laurent Brossoit returns to the Peg after two seasons in Vegas, including an impressive .927 save % in 11 regular season appearances last year.
Chevy hasn't made any changes to the defensive core, with certain starters such as Josh Morrissey, Dylan Samberg, Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo, and Neal Pionk. Overpaid veteran Nate Schmidt will probably claim the 6th spot, with Logan Stanley, Kyle Capobianco, Ville Heinola, & Declan Chisholm trying to unseat him.
Coach Bowness' system certainly improved defensive play in his debut season, but the offense took a hit as Winnipeg ended up as the 21st highest scoring team. Besides buying out Wheeler, the Jets also moved Pierre Luc Dubois to the LA Kings for forwards Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi, & Rasmus Kupari. The GM re-signed a bunch of skaters to fill out the offensive lines, including Vladislav Namestnikov, Morgan Barron, & Axel Jonsson-Fjallby. They will be joining veterans Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter, Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, & possibly Mark Scheifele. 23 yr old center/winger David Gustafsson will also be in the mix during training camp.
Are the Winnipeg Jets done making moves at this point? The GM has played the waiting game on trades before and came out the victor, can he do it once or twice again?
End Result:
Chemistry. That hard to pin down element that can make average teams great or great teams average. Something else that's difficult is trying to predict exactly how the swap of players (Wheeler, Dubois, Stenlund, Rittich for Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari, Brossoit) will play out on a roster with two of its stars having one foot out the door to start the season.
So are the Winnipeg Jets better? I will say that I think on paper they will have their best bottom 6 in franchise history, but who knows what the buy in from key players will be. Not really worried at all about Hellebuyck, expiring contract or not, in my mind, the guy just wants to win & will play well.
Bowness showed that his system could drastically reduce the goals against with the same defenders, so if he can get leaders like Iafallo & Lowry to inspire that type of play year long from the forward unit, I would actually be shocked if they failed to qualify for the post-season.
The challenge for Winnipeg next year will be on the offensive end of things, which is part of the reason I think Chevy is not exactly rushing a decision on #55. But with both Perfetti & Ehlers getting into 70+ regular season games and improved forward depth resulting in contributions from all lines, the Jets would just need to get more powerplay goals to become a real threat to Western teams hoping to lock up a playoff spot.
However, a bad start to the season could really derail the team's post-season chances, in my opinion. If the players (and management) start questioning things early, then there is a chance that Winnipeg's roster will never find its groove before the GM starts shopping #37 & #55 again. Which just might be the best thing, long-term, for the franchise?
I could see the Winnipeg Jets being re-energized by the removal of Wheeler/Dubois and to end up nipping at the heels of probable division leaders Colorado & Dallas. But I could also see the Jets flirting with a top 5 draft pick in 2024, if things go really wrong.
If I was being totally honest, I am expecting Winnipeg to at least be in the hunt/if not holding onto a wildcard spot as the trade deadline nears if they haven't dealt either Hellebuyck or Scheifele. Mainly because Winnipeg Jets fans haven't got a lot of great bounces over their NHL history and fate won't pass up the chance to put the long-term health of the franchise in Chevy's hands. But also because with Helly in net, the Jets should have a decent chance to win most games and the improved forward depth should make the team hard to play against.
The Coyotes have around $21.4M in dead cap space on LTIR with Shea Weber, Jakob Voracek, & former Winnipeg Jet Bryan Little (plus $20k due to Ekman-Larsson buy out by Vancouver). Even with an extra forward & defenseman on their NHL roster, Arizona still has $3,903,690 remaining under the salary cap's uppermost limit.
GM Bill Armstrong has had a fairly active off-season, picking up RD Sean Durzi in a trade with the Los Angeles Kings and signing a bunch of free agents: RD Matt Dumba, RD Troy Stecher, F Jason Zucker, F Alex Kerfoot, F Zach Sanford, & LD Travis Dermott. They also signed F Alex Galchenyuk, but that only last two weeks before his contract was terminated.
The Yotes were the 5th worst team in the NHL at scoring goals last season and they are hoping the additions of Kerfoot & Zucker will help their young core improve that statistic. With an average age of 25 yrs, the available forward options include key players like Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse, Nick Schmaltz and young guns with higher potential like Logan Cooley, Barrett Hayden, Matias Maccelli, Dylan Guenther, & Jack McBain. The roster is filled out with veterans like Nick Bjugstad, Travis Boyd, Liam O'Brien, & Michael Carcone.
The additions of Durzi, Dumba, Stecher, & Dermott to veteran defender Joshua Brown and 22-24 yr olds Juuso Valimaki, JJ Moser, & Victor Soderstrom will try to help the squad improve on last years' 8th worst goals against.
The Coyotes have a pretty good starting goalie in Karel Vejmelka, though his .900 save percentage isn't as impressive as the Winnipeg Jets often made him look. He will be backed up by Connor Ingram, who joined Arizona last year after spending a couple of seasons in Milwaukee frustrating Manitoba Moose scorers. Ingram put up a .907 save percentage in 27 NHL games last year, giving them a decent back up option.
The Arizona Coyotes have had 5 picks in the top 12 overall in the past three drafts and a massive 12 in the first two rounds in that same span. They also had picks in the top 12 in six of the eight drafts before that. After finishing 27th in the NHL in 2022-23, is this the season the Yotes step into the wildcard picture?
End Result:
I believe the off-season additions made by Arizona will result in a better offense, however the defensive additions will likely fail to deliver the improvements they were hoping for. The potential of seeing young stars like Cooley & Guenter break into the NHL will keep things interesting for Coyotes' fans, as will the never-ending search for the team's future arena site. There is the potential for teams like Columbus and Montreal to leap frog Arizona this season, but those squads have to face the better depth of the Eastern Conference more often. Overall, I would be pretty surprised if the Coyotes escape the bottom 10 of the NHL, but they won't be an easy W for opponents on most nights.
At the trade deadline, the GM can look to flip guys on expiring contracts such as Zucker, Dumba, or maybe even goalie Vejmelka (though he has 2 yrs left).
Chicago Blackhawks:
Even with $8M in dead cap space as a result of buy outs, retained salary, and recapture penalties, the Blackhawks are still $12,864,876 under the ceiling with a full NHL roster of players.
After winning the Connor Bedard sweepstakes, Chicago possibly looked to accelerate their rebuilding plan a bit and added forwards Corey Perry, Taylor Hall, & Nick Foligno via trade and Ryan Donato in free agency. The NHL's worst scoring team last season will get a boost from adding those players to veterans like Tyler Johnson, Andreas Athanasiou, Jason Dickinson, & Colin Blackwell, along with younger players such as Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, Cole Guttman, & Mackenzie Entwistle. After watching Lukas Reichel playing for Rockford in the AHL the past couple seasons, I wonder if he'll be able to grab a spot in Chicago this season.
Despite being the 6th worst at giving up goals in 2022-23, GM Kyle Davidson has done nothing to address either the defense or goaltending. Petr Mrazek will be returning as the 1A option after putting up a .894 save % in his first season as a Hawk, with Arvid Soderblom as a potential 1B. Unfortunately, he also had a .894 save % in the NHL last year in limited time, so both masked men will be looking to bounce back.
On the blueline, the top 4 players are likely going to be Seth Jones, Nikita Zaitsev, Connor Murphy, & Jarred Tinordi. Fighting to fill out the roster will be 24 yr old Filip Roos and 21 yr old Wyatt Kaiser & Isaak Phillips. One of their high-end prospects Kevin Korchinski could also be in the mix, with the only options being the NHL or back to Juniors for him.
The Hawks added some goal scoring talent in Bedard & Hall this summer, but will it be enough to improve from the worst scoring team in the league to a wildcard contender?
End Result:
This may sound a bit harsh, but in my opinion, none of Chicago's forward/defense/goalie units are even NHL average level. Yes, they have some good players mixed in there, but unless some drastic changes occur in the future, I foresee Bedard having a few non-playoff seasons to start his career. The Blackhawks do have four 1st round and five 2nd round selections in the next two drafts to help speed up the rebuild around the potential superstar.
Failing to keep up offensively with the rest of the league without having strong defense and goaltending will end up with the GM anxiously watching the NHL's draft lottery once again. With a total of eight NHL roster players a season away from unrestricted free agency, the Hawks can move plenty of people at the deadline (Johnson, Perry, Foligno, Dickinson, Zaitsev, & Mrazek).
Colorado Avalanche:
Late in August, CapFriendly has Colorado over the cap limit by $4,975,000 and still needing a 13th forward because captain Gabriel Landeskog will be out for the entire 2023-24 season. With his $7M contract going to LTIR, the Avalanche still have $2,025,000 left to try and fill the void.
It won't be entirely up to whomever GM Chris MacFarland adds with that money, because he made quite a few trades and some free agent signings as well. In three seperate transactions, the Avs acquired forwards Fredrik Olofsson (DAL), Ryan Johansen (NSH), & Ross Colton (TB), along with picking up minor league defenseman Gianni Fairbrother (MTL). Colorado were active in free agency, re-signing some of their own players (D Bowen Byram, F Andrew Cogliano, & F Ben Meyer) on top of getting Olofsson & Colton new contracts. In unrestricted free agency, MacFarland kept improving his forward depth with signings of Miles Wood & Jonathan Drouin (and former Manitoba Moose goalie Arvid Holm).
The Avalanche were 9th in goals scored last season and while the loss of Landeskog can't be glossed over, the franchise certainly did their best to add players (Olofsson, Johansen, Colton, Wood, & Drouin) to the returning core of Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen, Logan O'Connor, and the previously mentioned Cogliano & Meyer. The team has signed Peter Holland & Joel Kiviranta to professional tryouts (PTOs) to potentially compete for contracts for this season.
Colorado also finished 2022-23 in 9th place in goals allowed and from appearances, it looks like they will be rolling out the same starting seven: Cale Makar, Samuel Girard, Josh Manson, Devon Toews, Byram, Kurtis MacDermid, & Jack Johnson.
Also staying the same, the goaltending duo will be Alexander Georgiev and Pavel Francouz once again. The tandem played well last season, with Georgiev putting up a .919 save % in 62 starts, while Francouz filled in admirably in his 16 appearances (.915%).
How will the Avs deal without their captain and how will the many forwards they brought in gel?
End Result:
After a disappointing playoffs, Colorado will be looking to secure a top 4 Western Conference spot again this season and then get down to the serious work of the post-season. I can't really see a reason why they won't be successful, even without Landeskog's point per game production. If Colton & Johansen thrive in the new atmosphere, then the team could really become a real Cup contender.
The Avs are built to mainly stay together in 2024-25 (main 9 forwards, 4 defensemen, & a goalie signed), so if by some disaster they are out of a playoff spot at the deadline, I can't see them being very active.
Dallas Stars:
CapFriendly has Dallas at $317,829 over the salary cap's top limit, but they also have 8 defensemen on their NHL roster, so getting below will not be an issue.
The Stars are coming off a pretty impressive regular season in 22/23, finishing 7th in goals scored and 3rd in goals against.
On the blueline, Dallas GM Jim Nill is bringing back seven regulars in Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter, Jani Hakanpaa, Nils Lundkvist, Thomas Harley, & Joel Hanley. However, he did add Gavin Bayreuther in free agency to the mix as well, so a waiver exempt player like 22 yr old LD Harley or a veteran like 32 yr old LD Hanley may end up as the odd man out. 36 yr old veteran Jordie Benn will also be attending training camp on a PTO to challenge for a spot.
Texas' NHL team is hoping to remain a high scoring team in 2023-24 with returning forwards such as Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Mason Marchment, Joe Pavelski, Radek Faksa, Evgeni Dadonov, Ty Dellandrea, & Wyatt Johnson. To this core, the GM inserted free agents like Craig Smith (16 pts last yr), Matt Duchene (56 pts), & Sam Steel (28 pts).
The goal crease will be defended by returning starter Jake Oettinger (.919% last yr) and back up Scott Wedgewood (.915%), so the Stars should be once again be in good shape at that position.
The GM tinkered around the edges of a talented NHL team this off-season, will it be enough to give Dallas a long post-season run?
End Result:
There is a big chance that the Central Division title will come down to Dallas and Colorado again this season. Both squads are built very much the same, with strong goaltending/defense and some high-end talent up front to carry the offense. The Stars won their last 7 games of the regular season and almost caught the Avalanche last year for the title. Barring major injuries to either team, I think the battle will be that tight again in 2023-24.
The Dallas Stars have a few players on expiring contracts that could be trade bait at the deadline (Pavelski, Duchene, Smith), but I expect the GM to be a buyer, not a seller.
Minnesota Wild:
Minnesota still has things it needs to get done before training camp, with only 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster and RFA defenseman Calen Addison (29 pts in 62 games in 22/23) still unsigned. CapFriendly has the Wild with just $1,643,079 in cap space to fill those two remaining spots and if Addison was paid his true value, the team probably wouldn't have any money left. However, Minnesota did qualify the young defenseman for $787.5k, so it is possible that he signs that deal for one season, giving Wild GM Bill Guerin $855,579 to sign or promote a 13th forward.
These cap issues are mainly due to the ongoing costs related to the buyouts of Ryan Suter and Zach Parise, which will take up $14,743,588 of the Wild's cap this season (and again next year, before dropping to $1,666,666 for the next four years). Therefore, Minnesota wasn't a player during free agency and really only added F Pat Maroon and minor leaguer F Maxim Cajkovic.
The goaltending tandem of Filip Gustavsson (.931%) and Marc-Andre Fleury (.908%) are back to help the franchise remain as one of the stingiest NHL teams (tied for 7th in GA with the Jets).
If Guerin can get Addison's name on a contract, Minnesota will have the same seven defensemen to work with in 2023-24, other than the departing FA Matt Dumba. Captain Jared Spurgeon, Jonas Brodin, Jacob Middleton, Alex Goligoski, Jon Merrill, Brock Faber, & Addison will give the squad a good chance at maintaining their defensive proficiency.
On offense, the Wild were 22nd in goals scored (one behind Winnipeg) last season and are gambling that newly acquired Maroon and the promoted 21 yr old Marco Rossi will help their core light the lamp a bit more often. 'Sota will try to use impressive younger forwards like Kiril Kaprizov and Matt Boldy and combine them with veterans Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Foligno, Frederick Gauthier, Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman, Brandon Duhaime, & Connor Dewar to get the job done.
Can Minnesota get their last RFA signed without having to make any moves? Can they continue to be a playoff team despite their dead cap issues?
End Result:
The Wild will have to rely on their strong defense & goaltending once again this season if they hope to get back to the post-season. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect that Minnesota's offense will be just as low scoring as last season despite deadly Kaprizov being on the team, unless the bottom six surpass expectations. A low scoring offense didn't stop them from clearing the 100 pt ceiling in 22-23, so I expect our southern neighbours to challenge for a playoff spot once again. High end outlook = locking up a spot before the year-end push VS low end outlook = in a tight wildcard race, but just miss out on the last spot.
If the latter prediction comes true, then the Wild might not even get a chance to move veterans on expiring contracts like Foligno, Zuccarello, & Hartman at the deadline.
Nashville Predators:
Despite having over $8.8M tied in buyouts (Duchene/Turris) and retained salary (Johansen/Ekholm), CapFriendly still has Nashville $7,906,635 under the upper cap limit. An oddly built team at this point, with only six forwards making more than $1M/year (Forsberg is the only one over $5M), yet all seven defensemen and two goalies are making at least $2M/yr.
Other than buying out Matt Duchene this off-season, Predator GM Barry Trotz focused on re-signing his own players, but did bring in F Ryan O'Reilly and D Luke Schenn through free agency.
After finishing 6th worst in scoring last year, O'Reilly will be joining Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons, Cody Glass, Yakov Trenin, Denis Gurianov, Thomas Novak, Mark Jankowski, Kiefer Sherwood, & Cole Smith. The Preds will also be counting on key contributions from youngsters Philip Tomasino, Juuso Parssinen, & Luke Evangelista to improve their goal scoring abilities.
Nashville wound up 12th in goals against in 2022-23 and will try to improve with the addition of Schenn and a full season of Tyson Barrie, in combination with regulars Roman Josi, Ryan McDonagh, Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabro, & Jeremy Lauzon.
Smashville's main masked man will be Juuse Saros, who is coming off back-to-back stellar seasons (.919% & .918%) as the starter (60+ games). 28 yr old Kevin Lankinen will be the second stringer once again, after putting up a .916 save % in 19 appearances last season.
Can Trotz work his magic and drastically turn around the Predators' fortunes? He once did it as a head coach with the Islanders, but has a much more difficult task as GM in Nashville.
End Result:
At this point, it seems to me that Nashville can expect above average goaltending and defense, but the Preds are another team that might find it difficult to score in 23-24. Between cap penalties and available space, Trotz is spending $16M less than the upper limit on the actual on-ice players. So I don't think he'll really be that surprised when they miss the post-season action in his first season. No doubt the GM will be happy about his upcoming three 1st round selections and four 2nd rounders in the next two drafts though.
Despite having 12 players on the last year of their deals, Nashville doesn't have much in terms of prime trade deadline candidates (maybe Barrie?).
St. Louis Blues:
CapFriendly has St. Louis with $293,571 left under the cap, with 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their NHL rosters. It has been a relatively quiet off-season for GM Doug Armstrong and the Blues, though they did trade for F Kevin Hayes and signed F Oskar Sundqvist as a UFA.
The 2022-23 season was not a great one for the Central Division franchise, especially defensively where they finished tied for 5th worst in goals against. Part of that was due to another below average season from goalie Jordan Binnington (.894%/.901% past two yrs). The Blues may get some help in the form of a 23 yr old Winnipeger named Joel Hofer. The young tender only made 6 NHL appearances last season (.905%), but was pretty stellar in the AHL with Springfield (.921%).
Other than the addition of Schenn, the team didn't address the defensive unit and the newcomer will join defenders Justin Falk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Nick Leddy, Marco Scandella, Robert Bortuzzo, & Calle Rosen. 23 yr old Tyler Tucker saw 26 games at the NHL level in 22-23 and will be trying to knock a veteran like Rosen to the minors with a good training camp.
The Blues were in the middle of the NHL in goal scoring (16th) last season and with the additions of Hayes & Sundqvist, at least tried to improve in that statistic in the off-season. Main forwards like Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas, Brayden Schenn, Pavel Buchnevich, and Brandon Saad give St. Louis a base to work with and will look to reclamation projects like Jakub Vrana & Kasperi Kapanen to provide more depth. To round out the line up, the coaching staff still has options in veteran Samuel Blais, as well as youngsters Jake Neighbours, Alexey Toropchenko, & Nikita Alexandrov.
After missing the playoffs last season, can St. Louis find a way back this season? Will the new players shore up the defense and spark the offense?
End Result:
While the Blues are only a season removed from 109 pts and a playoff berth, I feel like they will need to get a lot of breaks to be that effective in 2023-24. They would need Binnington to return to his Cup-winning form, Schenn to be monster on defense, and Hayes to be much better than a 50 pt player.
That being said, I don't see why St. Louis can't hang around enough to become a major obstacle in the Western Division wildcard race. At the most optimistic, the team could uproot my expected 3rd in the Central team (MIN). At worst, the GM will be figuring out who he should try to move at the deadline. Maybe they will discover a new starter in Hofer throughout the year and that could be a big win, despite the 4 remaining years on Binnington's contract.
The Blues do have a few upcoming UFAs, but I am not sure how coveted they would be at the deadline (forwards Kapanen, Vrana, Blais, & d-man Scandella).
Winnipeg Jets:
With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders, CapFriendly has Winnipeg with $1,779,643 in wiggle room (despite the $2.75M hit for the Blake Wheeler buyout). While the Jets don't need to make any further transactions to become cap compliant, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff still has to figure out what to do about his stars (Connor Hellebuyck & Mark Scheifele) that are on expiring contracts and potentially trim down the 10 defensemen they have that are NHL-ready (or close).
Tied for 7th with Minnesota in goals allowed, the Winnipeg Jets played well defensively for the most part and as it stands it appears they will be returning Connor Hellebuyck (.920 save % - 3rd best of his career) as their starter. Free agent signing Laurent Brossoit returns to the Peg after two seasons in Vegas, including an impressive .927 save % in 11 regular season appearances last year.
Chevy hasn't made any changes to the defensive core, with certain starters such as Josh Morrissey, Dylan Samberg, Brenden Dillon, Dylan DeMelo, and Neal Pionk. Overpaid veteran Nate Schmidt will probably claim the 6th spot, with Logan Stanley, Kyle Capobianco, Ville Heinola, & Declan Chisholm trying to unseat him.
Coach Bowness' system certainly improved defensive play in his debut season, but the offense took a hit as Winnipeg ended up as the 21st highest scoring team. Besides buying out Wheeler, the Jets also moved Pierre Luc Dubois to the LA Kings for forwards Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi, & Rasmus Kupari. The GM re-signed a bunch of skaters to fill out the offensive lines, including Vladislav Namestnikov, Morgan Barron, & Axel Jonsson-Fjallby. They will be joining veterans Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter, Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, & possibly Mark Scheifele. 23 yr old center/winger David Gustafsson will also be in the mix during training camp.
Are the Winnipeg Jets done making moves at this point? The GM has played the waiting game on trades before and came out the victor, can he do it once or twice again?
End Result:
Chemistry. That hard to pin down element that can make average teams great or great teams average. Something else that's difficult is trying to predict exactly how the swap of players (Wheeler, Dubois, Stenlund, Rittich for Vilardi, Iafallo, Kupari, Brossoit) will play out on a roster with two of its stars having one foot out the door to start the season.
So are the Winnipeg Jets better? I will say that I think on paper they will have their best bottom 6 in franchise history, but who knows what the buy in from key players will be. Not really worried at all about Hellebuyck, expiring contract or not, in my mind, the guy just wants to win & will play well.
Bowness showed that his system could drastically reduce the goals against with the same defenders, so if he can get leaders like Iafallo & Lowry to inspire that type of play year long from the forward unit, I would actually be shocked if they failed to qualify for the post-season.
The challenge for Winnipeg next year will be on the offensive end of things, which is part of the reason I think Chevy is not exactly rushing a decision on #55. But with both Perfetti & Ehlers getting into 70+ regular season games and improved forward depth resulting in contributions from all lines, the Jets would just need to get more powerplay goals to become a real threat to Western teams hoping to lock up a playoff spot.
However, a bad start to the season could really derail the team's post-season chances, in my opinion. If the players (and management) start questioning things early, then there is a chance that Winnipeg's roster will never find its groove before the GM starts shopping #37 & #55 again. Which just might be the best thing, long-term, for the franchise?
I could see the Winnipeg Jets being re-energized by the removal of Wheeler/Dubois and to end up nipping at the heels of probable division leaders Colorado & Dallas. But I could also see the Jets flirting with a top 5 draft pick in 2024, if things go really wrong.
If I was being totally honest, I am expecting Winnipeg to at least be in the hunt/if not holding onto a wildcard spot as the trade deadline nears if they haven't dealt either Hellebuyck or Scheifele. Mainly because Winnipeg Jets fans haven't got a lot of great bounces over their NHL history and fate won't pass up the chance to put the long-term health of the franchise in Chevy's hands. But also because with Helly in net, the Jets should have a decent chance to win most games and the improved forward depth should make the team hard to play against.
