A Breakdown of the Metropolitan Division - Early Sep
Sept 6, 2023 19:09:01 GMT -6
Ric O., ekjet72, and 1 more like this
Post by bigoljetairliner on Sept 6, 2023 19:09:01 GMT -6
Carolina Hurricanes:
After finishing last season as the 2nd best NHL team in the regular season, Carolina's GM Don Waddell had an active off-season as he tried to make his team into a more dangerous Cup contender for 2023-24. The Canes activity mainly consisted of five NHL players signed in free agency: D Dmitry Orlov, F Michael Bunting, D Anthony DeAngelo, F Brendan Lemieux, & D Caleb Jones.
CapFriendly has the Hurricanes with $920,583 in space and a roster consisting of 13 F, 8 D, & 3 G, but F Andrei Svechnikov will be on LTIR for a good chunk of the season, so they will be looking to add another forward for at least part of the year.
At the goaltender position, Coach Brind'Amour currently has three options, with veteran tenders Antti Raanta (.910%) and Frederik Andersen (.903% reg/.927% playoffs) and 24 yr old Pyotr Kochetkov (.909% in NHL) also pushing for time. With all three making at least $1.5M, Carolina will take a small cap penalty if they opt to send any of them down to the minors. While Kochetkov is waiver-exempt in 23-24, I think the plan will be to keep him on the NHL roster if possible (especially with the Hurricanes having no AHL affiliate this season and having to rely on loans to other franchises minor league teams). The young Russian had a great debut season in the AHL in 21-22 (.921% reg/.950% playoffs), but his numbers fell a bit last season (.903%)
Looking at the defensive unit, the Hurricanes have newly signed Orlov, DeAngelo, & Jones to go with the usual suspects Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Brady Skjei, Jalen Chatfield, and possibly Brett Pesce (he is a year away from UFA status and subject to trade rumours). This group will try to emulate last years' team and finish with the 2nd least goals against in the regular season. The GM also signed former Winnipeg Jet Nathan Beaulieu to a PTO to compete for a contract or provide depth in training camp.
Carolina had the 15th highest scoring offense last season and hope that the new additions of Bunting & Lemieux can help them improve. It will be hard to do with Svechnikov missing part of the season, but they can rely on other scorers like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jesper Fast. The Canes will fill out the roster with veterans Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, as well as 23 yr old Jack Drury and PTO Nick Shore.
How much of the season will Svechnikov miss and what will be the impact on the offense, especially power play scoring? Can the Hurricanes keep building on last season's momentum and make a longer run in the playoffs?
End Result:
I think Brind'Amour will try to replicate last season by using his team's strengths (great team defense/solid goaltending tandem) to cover their weaknesses (middle of the pack scoring). If younger players like Jarvis & Necas continue to make jumps in their productions and Bunting can put more goals/assists on the scoresheet than penalties, Carolina should be in the running for a top 4 finish in the East.
Can't really see the Hurricanes missing the playoffs, but they have a bunch of upcoming UFAs that could be moved at the deadline (Teravainen, Pesce, Skjei, DeAngelo, & Raanta) if that does arise.
Columbus Blue Jackets:
With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster and CapFriendly has Columbus $4,729,167 below the NHL's upper salary cap. After finishing 31st in the NHL last season, you would think GM Jarmo Kekalainen would have a lot of moves to make in the off-season, but no....besides re-signing/signing their own players/prospects, the Finnish GM only made two transactions - trades for D Damon Severson from NJ and D Ivan Provorov from PHI.
The Blue Jackets allowed the 2nd most goals against in the NHL in 22-23, with a massive -116 goal differential and the franchise is obviously hoping a full season of a healthy Zach Werenski and the two new defenders will shore things up a bit. Other D options include Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and unsigned RFA Tim Berni.
The masked men for the Jackets will once again be Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov, both of whom are coming off less than stellar seasons (.876%/.892% respectively). The two tenders will definitely be hoping that the improved defense results in the quality and quantity of the shots they face decreasing.
With an average age of 25.1 yrs, the Columbus forward unit has to be close to the youngest in the NHL. After finishing 30th in goals scored last season, the Blue Jackets seem to be gambling on their young prospects stepping up big time if they hope to compete in a tough Eastern Conference. The veterans (over 28 yrs) include Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly, & Eric Robinson, with middle agers (24-27) Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Mathieu Olivier, & Emil Bemstrom. The young guns on the roster include Alexandre Texier, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Liam Foudy, and just drafted Adam Fantilli (3rd overall).
Can the Jackets join teams like the Islanders, Penguins, Capitals, Senators, Red Wings, & Sabres in the battle for a wildcard spot?
End Result:
Columbus definitely had to deal with their fair share of injuries last season, but that doesn't totally explain their atrocious win-loss record in 2022-23. Even with an improved defense and better goaltending, I still think the Jackets will be hard pressed to secure a wild card spot this year.
I guess the Jackets do have plenty of talented players (Laine, Gaudreau, Werenski, etc), so if things all go well for them, they could actually challenge for a post-season spot. Not likely, but possible.
Due to the young age of the team, the Blue Jackets could possibly have only one upcoming UFA that would be attractive at the trade deadline (Roslovic) so it doesn't appear they will be a major player.
New Jersey Devils:
After finishing 3rd in overall points last season, New Jersey enters 2023-24 with 14 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster. According to CapFriendly, the Devils have $2.75M in cap penalties, leaving the GM just $1,919,167 to work with going forward.
GM Tom Fitzgerald tried to improve last year's 4th best scoring offense by trading for forward Tyler Toffoli (CGY) and signing Chris Tierney and Tomas Nosek as unrestricted free agents. Those players will be joined by returning skaters like Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, & Curtis Lazar. 22 yr old Nolan Foote will try to use training camp to grab a roster spot on a deep forward unit.
New Jersey will be gambling on returning goalies Vitek Vanecek and young Akira Schmidt once again this season. Vanecek had his best NHL season in his 1st year as a Devil, putting up a .911 save % in the regular season. Unfortunately, his game kind of fell apart in the post-season, as he struggled with a .825 save %. The 23 yr old Schmidt got into 18 NHL games last year (.922%) and 9 playoff games (.921%). While he has been fantastic in a small NHL sample size, there is no guarantee that he can keep those numbers up (after all, he had a .905% in 23 AHL games with Utica last year).
The 10th best team in the NHL in goals against last season, NJ will be returning five players from the 22-23 squad: Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, Jonas Siegenthaler, Brendan Smith, & Kevin Bahl. Fitzgerald added Colin Miller via a trade with Dallas and the 4th overall pick in 2021 (Luke Hughes) should round out the team, though there is always the possibility that the 2nd overall pick in 2022 (Simon Nemec) makes the big league team too.
There are high expectations for the Devils in 2023-24, can the team live up to the hype? How will the decision not to target a goalie in the off-season play out?
End Result:
The Devils depth should help them challenge for a playoff spot even if their goaltending regresses from last season, but it might stop them from challenging for a top 4 spot in the Eastern Conference. An enviable amount of young talent on both the forward & defensive units will make NJ exciting to watch in 2023-24 and for years to come.
If Jersey is in the spot I think they will be at the trade deadline (top 5 in East), I think the GM will once again start calling Chevy about the status of Hellebuyck. The Winnipeg Jets may be willing to accept futures (young prospects/picks) at that point.
The Devils do have Toffoli as an expiring UFA, but they will be keeping him for their playoff push as I expect New Jersey to be fighting with Carolina for the division title. In fact, I expect the Devils to challenge the Maple Leafs for the Conference title.
New York Islanders:
According to CapFriendly, the Islanders have 15 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster, resulting in New York being $486.625 above the cap's upper limit. With the ability to send the 24th player down to the minors, GM Lou Lamoriello shouldn't have difficulties becoming cap compliant.
The Isles' had a quiet off-season after finishing 15th in overall points & making the playoffs. Mainly re-signing their own players like goalies Ilya Sorokin/Semyon Varlamov, F Pierre Engvall, & D Scott Mayfield. Lou did add a pair of bottom 6 forwards through free agency (Julien Gauthier & Karson Kuhlman), but they are basically running back the same roster.
With returning goaltenders (Sorokin/Varlamov) putting up .924 and .913 save percentages respectively and a defensive core of Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson, Mayfield, Alexander Romanov, & Sebastian Aho, the Long Islanders will try to match last season's 6th best defense. 22 yr old Samuel Bolduc will try to become a NHL regular after getting into 17 games in 22-23.
New York's main offense will come from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, & Kyle Palmieri. If the Islanders hope to be better than the 10th worst scoring team again, they will need lots of help from the bottom 6 options: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Engvall, Matt Martin, Ross Johnston, Hudson Fasching, and the free agent signings (Gauthier & Kuhlman).
Was standing pat the best route for the Islanders this off-season? With aging forwards (29.8 yr av) and goalies (31.5 yr av), can the franchise make some noise before it's time to rebuild/retool?
End Result:
The Islanders squeaked into the playoffs last season with 93 points and they're possibly going to need more if they want to make it again in 2023-24. New York had the 6th best goals against total in the previous season, so they will once again have to rely on their superb goaltending from Sorokin (career .924 save %).
Of note, only 5 goalies in the history of the NHL (Hasek, Dryden, Bower, Rask, & Bishop) have a .920% or better after a min of 250 games - Sorokin needs a 114 more games to reach that number, but he is in elite company at this point in his career.
Getting back to the Isles', I think their offense will continue to be average which will put them in a crowded wildcard race with teams like Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, Boston, Florida, etc. Not sure it works out for them this year.
New York Rangers:
The Rangers finished in 9th place last season and tried to "go for it" by making high end acquisitions like Patrick Kane & Vladimir Tarasenko, but ended up falling short. Those two players (and others) opted to walk in the off-season to other teams, so GM Chris Drury had some work to do to fill out his roster. CapFriendly has New York over the cap by $46,583, but with 13 F, 8 D, & 2 G on the team, they only have to send an extra defenseman to the minors to get back under.
The NYR went hard in free agency (F Blake Wheeler, G Jonathan Quick, F Tyler Pitlick, F Riley Nash, F Alex Belzile, F Nick Bonino, D Erik Gustafsson, & D Connor Mackey), seemingly focusing on quantity over quality. After that, Drury moved onto signing a couple of his important RFAs in D K'Andre Miller & F Alexis Lafreniere to bridge deals, though the latter took until August 23rd to get it done.
The Rangers have a world-class starter in Igor Shesterkin to combine with newly signed goalie Quick. Shesterkin has alternated between being good and great in his 4 year NHL career, having save percentages of .932, .916, .935, & .916. Though the Russian always seems to step it up a notch in the playoffs (.929 & .931%). Quick brings a veteran presence as a back up, but probably below average tending (.876% w/ LA & .901% w/ Vegas).
New York's defense was stellar last season, allowing an average of 2.76 goals per game, which was good for 4th least goals against in the NHL. The two free agent signings (Gustafsson & Mackey) will be battling for time with six returning members: Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren, Braden Schneider, Zachary Jones, & the previously mentioned Miller.
The Rangers also knew how to score last season, netting 277 goals in the regular season, good for 12th best in the league. The Blueshirts will be returning 9 forwards in 2023-24, with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Filip Chytil, Barclay Goodrow, Kaapo Kakko, Jimmy Vesey, & Lafreniere. Besides former Winnipeg Jet Wheeler, the other new signings (Pitlick, Bonino, & Belzile) will be fighting for bottom six roles.
Will the team from the Big Apple get enough offense to propel their team into the playoffs again in a tough Eastern Conference?
End Result:
Another NY team with excellent goaltending, as Shesterkin also has a career .924 save % in 158 NHL appearances. Add to that a strong defensive core and an above average top 9 (even with Wheeler in it), in my mind that should end up with a likely playoff spot when the dust settles on the regular season. Their 4th line is definitely not something to brag about and a couple injuries to key players could bring them back into the wildcard battle, but I expect them to be 2nd or 3rd in the Metro in 2023-24.
Should the Rangers be sellers at the trade deadline, they won't have many attractive options for other teams. The GM would be unlikely to trade the three expiring RFA contracts (Kakko, Lindgren, & Schneider), but could possibly find buyers for veterans Wheeler & Gustafsson.
Philadelphia Flyers:
The Flyers have over $12M in dead cap space due to buyouts & retained salary, but CapFriendly still has Philadelphia with $2,967,905 left to spend. They do still need to sign 24 yr old RFA forward Morgan Frost, who is coming off 46 pts in 81 games with that money. **note: reports are saying Frost is close to signing a 2 yr deal for $4M total.**
Coming off the 7th worst record in the NHL last season, GM Daniel Briere did some work in the off-season, even if it wasn't very flashy. The Flyers added F Garnet Hathaway, F Ryan Poehling, & D Marc Staal in free agency. Philly also picked up some players in a trade with the LA Kings (D Sean Walker and G Cal Petersen).
After being the 4th worst in scoring last season, the Flyers haven't added that much offense in the off-season. Hathaway's 22 pts in 84 games and Poehling's 14 pts in 53 games aren't going to move the needle much, especially considering they traded Kevin Hayes' 54 pts in 81 games to St. Louis (w/ retained salary). There are questions surrounding the availability of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson, who are both coming off severe injuries, but from the sounds of it they should be ready to attend training camp. Philly does have a talented healthy forward in Travis Konecny and he is coming off his first point per game NHL season. But they are going to have to rely on a bunch of middle 6ers for secondary offense (Owen Tippett, Scott Laughton, Joel Farabee, & Noah Cates). The Flyers will certainly need to get Frost signed to add to the remaining forward pool: Nicholas Deslauriers, Wade Allison, Tyson Foerster, & Tanner Laczynski.
Five Philadelphia defensemen are returning from the group that ended up 22nd in goals against (Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam York, Nick Seeler, & Yegor Zamula). Newly acquired/signed defenders M. Staal and Walker will join them and face a difficult challenge in improving team defense.
Coming into training camp, the Pennsylvania franchise has three options in net: 25 yr old Carter Hart, 26 yr old Felix Sandstrom, & 28 yr old Cal Petersen. It would seem that the starting job is Hart's (.907%) if he is healthy, with Sandstrom (.880%) and Petersen (.868%) scrapping for the backup role. With Petersen's best statistics at least two seasons away, Philadelphia are gambling that he can return to form and earn his $5M/yr salary (signed thru 24-25).
Don't think Philadelphians can hope for a Rocky-like underdog story from this year's version of the Flyers. I don't give them a shot at the playoffs in the East, so the real question is will they finish higher or lower than they did last year?
End Result:
If I was a gambling man, I think I would feel pretty comfortable betting that the Flyers don't make the playoffs in 23-24. Maybe I would go as far to guarantee a bottom 5 finish? A lot will depend on the health of Couturier, as he will give them a reliable 2-way center that they didn't have last season (limited to 29 games).
The Flyers are clearly in need for a rebuild and will add to their prospects with a minimum of two 1st and two 2nd round selections in the upcoming entry draft. Will they unload any more players in their rebuild if things continue to go bad? Would think that goalie Hart and center Frost would be good targets for Winnipeg & other teams if they were willing to let them go.
Pittsburgh Penguins:
According to CapFriendly, the Penguins are $79,342 over the cap, with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies on the NHL roster. Forward Jake Guentzel will start the year on LTIR due to injury, so while the team doesn't need to make a move immediately, they will have to find a way to shed $80k when the veteran is ready to return.
Pittsburgh's new GM, Kyle Dubas, has had quite the busy off-season attempting to give veteran stars like F Sidney Crosby, F Evgeni Malkin, and D Kris Letang one more shot at lifting the Stanley Cup. The former Maple Leaf GM signed or traded for a total of 10 players that will have a shot at making the NHL squad. The big additions were D Erik Karlsson (101 pts), F Reilly Smith (56 pts), & D Ryan Graves (26 pts), however the Pens brought in F Matt Nieto, F Noel Acciari, F Lars Eller, F Rem Pitlick, D Will Butcher, F Vinnie Hinostroza, F Andreas Johnsson, & G Alex Nedeljkovic to try and earn spots as well. Guess you can add PTOs like F Austin Wagner, D Mark Pysyk, & D Libor Hajek in there too.
The Pens had the 17th most goals for in 2023-24 and they will see if the newbies (Smith, Nieto, Acciari, Eller, Pitlick, Hinostroza, & Johnsson) can spark the veterans (Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Jeff Carter, Drew O'Connor, & Alexander Nylander) to improve on that. Adding the most recent Norris Trophy winner to the roster should also help.
Whether Karlsson will help Pittsburgh do better than 18th in team defense this season is a different matter. They did add Graves too, who is much better defensively as possibly displayed by his career +84 plus-minus rating. Veteran Letang is one of five returning defenders, along with Marcus Pettersson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Chad Ruhwedel, & Ty Smith.
Besides bringing in goaltender Nedeljkovic (.895%) via free agency, Pittsburgh also re-signed Tristan Jarry (.909%) to a 5 yr deal @ $5.375M/yr. Seems the other NHL team from Pennsylvania is betting that Jarry will play closer to his 19-20 & 21-22 performances (.919%) throughout the contract.
After finishing 19th in team points last year, can Crosby lead the Penguins back to the playoffs? The training camp should be important for the franchise, as all the coaching staff needs to figure out how to integrate all the new faces.
End Result:
Not exactly sure what percent I would give to Pittsburgh's chances to make the playoffs, but it's somewhere in the middle range. Couldn't say the Pens were a lock to either make or miss the post-season, so I am going with somewhere in the 20 to 55% range.
Jarry's play and bottom six scoring will be key in determining things, as the defense and top 6 should be average or above barring injuries. Pitt tried to be bold this off-season and that either ends up paying off or blowing up in your face. In the end, I think while the Pens will be an exciting team to watch (with chances going both ways), they will end up falling short of the playoffs once again.
The franchise isn't built to be a trade deadline seller, as their upcoming UFA/RFAs will not be very coveted (possibly Nedeljkovic for a team in need of goaltending depth).
Washington Capitals:
The Washington Capitals are another squad that needs to do a bit more work to become cap compliant. CapFriendly has them $700,834 over the cap's upper limit, with only one pressbox player on their NHL roster. Rumours have surrounded the team that finished 25th in the league all off-season, with questions popping up about center Evgeny Kuznetsov and winger Anthony Mantha. But here we are in September and both are still part of the organization.
Washington added D Joel Edmundson from Montreal via trade and signed forwards Max Pacioretty and former Manitoba Moose/Winnipeg Jet Alex Limoges (54 pts in 63 AHL games) in free agency. In reality, Limoges will be playing for last year's AHL Calder Cup champions, the Hersey Bears, but thought I would throw him a mention.
The Capitals were 20th in goals for in 2022-23 and will be relying on improvement from over 30 yr old forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Nicholas Backstrom, Kuznetsov, TJ Oshie, & Nic Dowd), 26 to 29 yr olds (Mantha, Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, Sonny Milano, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, & Joe Snively), and 22 yr old Aliaksei Protas.
Washington also needs a stauncher defensive unit (19th best goals against) if they want to return to the post-season. Edmundson coming in from the Canadiens is the only new player, and he will join 30+ yr old veterans (John Carlson, Nick Jensen, & Trevor van Riemsdyk) & a trio of 23 yr olds (Rasmus Sandin, Martin Fehervary, & Alexander Alexeyev) to form the Caps core.
Goalie Darcy Kuemper was only slightly above average (.909%) in his first year with Washington and will be looking to return to the numbers he put up in Colorado & Arizona (.921 to .928%). He will be backed up by Charlie Lindgren, who put up a .899 save % in 31 NHL games last season.
Other than adding a gamble in the form of the health of Pacioretty and a veteran bottom 4 defender in Edmundson, the Capitals' GM Brian MacLellan didn't do a whole lot. Wonder if he actually expects this team to make the playoffs??? Makes me wonder if he knows that often quoted definition of insanity?
End Result:
I am hoping that Capital fans will be satisfied with watching Ovechkin chase Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record, because they will need all kinds of luck to win the wildcard race in the East. Definitely don't see them finishing higher than that.
Kuemper does have the talent to raise the level of his play, but I don't see the recent skater additions making enough of an impact to get them over the top (Pacioretty has only played 44 games over the past 2 seasons). My high end prediction is barely missing the playoffs after a tight wildcard race and the low end is a top 5 overall draft selection in 2024.
At the deadline, we will likely get to see management trying to move upcoming UFAs like Mantha, Pacioretty, and Edmundson to get additional picks/prospects.
After finishing last season as the 2nd best NHL team in the regular season, Carolina's GM Don Waddell had an active off-season as he tried to make his team into a more dangerous Cup contender for 2023-24. The Canes activity mainly consisted of five NHL players signed in free agency: D Dmitry Orlov, F Michael Bunting, D Anthony DeAngelo, F Brendan Lemieux, & D Caleb Jones.
CapFriendly has the Hurricanes with $920,583 in space and a roster consisting of 13 F, 8 D, & 3 G, but F Andrei Svechnikov will be on LTIR for a good chunk of the season, so they will be looking to add another forward for at least part of the year.
At the goaltender position, Coach Brind'Amour currently has three options, with veteran tenders Antti Raanta (.910%) and Frederik Andersen (.903% reg/.927% playoffs) and 24 yr old Pyotr Kochetkov (.909% in NHL) also pushing for time. With all three making at least $1.5M, Carolina will take a small cap penalty if they opt to send any of them down to the minors. While Kochetkov is waiver-exempt in 23-24, I think the plan will be to keep him on the NHL roster if possible (especially with the Hurricanes having no AHL affiliate this season and having to rely on loans to other franchises minor league teams). The young Russian had a great debut season in the AHL in 21-22 (.921% reg/.950% playoffs), but his numbers fell a bit last season (.903%)
Looking at the defensive unit, the Hurricanes have newly signed Orlov, DeAngelo, & Jones to go with the usual suspects Jaccob Slavin, Brent Burns, Brady Skjei, Jalen Chatfield, and possibly Brett Pesce (he is a year away from UFA status and subject to trade rumours). This group will try to emulate last years' team and finish with the 2nd least goals against in the regular season. The GM also signed former Winnipeg Jet Nathan Beaulieu to a PTO to compete for a contract or provide depth in training camp.
Carolina had the 15th highest scoring offense last season and hope that the new additions of Bunting & Lemieux can help them improve. It will be hard to do with Svechnikov missing part of the season, but they can rely on other scorers like Sebastian Aho, Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, and Jesper Fast. The Canes will fill out the roster with veterans Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook, Stefan Noesen, as well as 23 yr old Jack Drury and PTO Nick Shore.
How much of the season will Svechnikov miss and what will be the impact on the offense, especially power play scoring? Can the Hurricanes keep building on last season's momentum and make a longer run in the playoffs?
End Result:
I think Brind'Amour will try to replicate last season by using his team's strengths (great team defense/solid goaltending tandem) to cover their weaknesses (middle of the pack scoring). If younger players like Jarvis & Necas continue to make jumps in their productions and Bunting can put more goals/assists on the scoresheet than penalties, Carolina should be in the running for a top 4 finish in the East.
Can't really see the Hurricanes missing the playoffs, but they have a bunch of upcoming UFAs that could be moved at the deadline (Teravainen, Pesce, Skjei, DeAngelo, & Raanta) if that does arise.
Columbus Blue Jackets:
With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster and CapFriendly has Columbus $4,729,167 below the NHL's upper salary cap. After finishing 31st in the NHL last season, you would think GM Jarmo Kekalainen would have a lot of moves to make in the off-season, but no....besides re-signing/signing their own players/prospects, the Finnish GM only made two transactions - trades for D Damon Severson from NJ and D Ivan Provorov from PHI.
The Blue Jackets allowed the 2nd most goals against in the NHL in 22-23, with a massive -116 goal differential and the franchise is obviously hoping a full season of a healthy Zach Werenski and the two new defenders will shore things up a bit. Other D options include Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke, Adam Boqvist, Nick Blankenburg, and unsigned RFA Tim Berni.
The masked men for the Jackets will once again be Elvis Merzlikins and Daniil Tarasov, both of whom are coming off less than stellar seasons (.876%/.892% respectively). The two tenders will definitely be hoping that the improved defense results in the quality and quantity of the shots they face decreasing.
With an average age of 25.1 yrs, the Columbus forward unit has to be close to the youngest in the NHL. After finishing 30th in goals scored last season, the Blue Jackets seem to be gambling on their young prospects stepping up big time if they hope to compete in a tough Eastern Conference. The veterans (over 28 yrs) include Johnny Gaudreau, Boone Jenner, Sean Kuraly, & Eric Robinson, with middle agers (24-27) Patrik Laine, Jack Roslovic, Mathieu Olivier, & Emil Bemstrom. The young guns on the roster include Alexandre Texier, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko, Liam Foudy, and just drafted Adam Fantilli (3rd overall).
Can the Jackets join teams like the Islanders, Penguins, Capitals, Senators, Red Wings, & Sabres in the battle for a wildcard spot?
End Result:
Columbus definitely had to deal with their fair share of injuries last season, but that doesn't totally explain their atrocious win-loss record in 2022-23. Even with an improved defense and better goaltending, I still think the Jackets will be hard pressed to secure a wild card spot this year.
I guess the Jackets do have plenty of talented players (Laine, Gaudreau, Werenski, etc), so if things all go well for them, they could actually challenge for a post-season spot. Not likely, but possible.
Due to the young age of the team, the Blue Jackets could possibly have only one upcoming UFA that would be attractive at the trade deadline (Roslovic) so it doesn't appear they will be a major player.
New Jersey Devils:
After finishing 3rd in overall points last season, New Jersey enters 2023-24 with 14 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster. According to CapFriendly, the Devils have $2.75M in cap penalties, leaving the GM just $1,919,167 to work with going forward.
GM Tom Fitzgerald tried to improve last year's 4th best scoring offense by trading for forward Tyler Toffoli (CGY) and signing Chris Tierney and Tomas Nosek as unrestricted free agents. Those players will be joined by returning skaters like Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes, Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt, Ondrej Palat, Erik Haula, Michael McLeod, Nathan Bastian, & Curtis Lazar. 22 yr old Nolan Foote will try to use training camp to grab a roster spot on a deep forward unit.
New Jersey will be gambling on returning goalies Vitek Vanecek and young Akira Schmidt once again this season. Vanecek had his best NHL season in his 1st year as a Devil, putting up a .911 save % in the regular season. Unfortunately, his game kind of fell apart in the post-season, as he struggled with a .825 save %. The 23 yr old Schmidt got into 18 NHL games last year (.922%) and 9 playoff games (.921%). While he has been fantastic in a small NHL sample size, there is no guarantee that he can keep those numbers up (after all, he had a .905% in 23 AHL games with Utica last year).
The 10th best team in the NHL in goals against last season, NJ will be returning five players from the 22-23 squad: Dougie Hamilton, John Marino, Jonas Siegenthaler, Brendan Smith, & Kevin Bahl. Fitzgerald added Colin Miller via a trade with Dallas and the 4th overall pick in 2021 (Luke Hughes) should round out the team, though there is always the possibility that the 2nd overall pick in 2022 (Simon Nemec) makes the big league team too.
There are high expectations for the Devils in 2023-24, can the team live up to the hype? How will the decision not to target a goalie in the off-season play out?
End Result:
The Devils depth should help them challenge for a playoff spot even if their goaltending regresses from last season, but it might stop them from challenging for a top 4 spot in the Eastern Conference. An enviable amount of young talent on both the forward & defensive units will make NJ exciting to watch in 2023-24 and for years to come.
If Jersey is in the spot I think they will be at the trade deadline (top 5 in East), I think the GM will once again start calling Chevy about the status of Hellebuyck. The Winnipeg Jets may be willing to accept futures (young prospects/picks) at that point.
The Devils do have Toffoli as an expiring UFA, but they will be keeping him for their playoff push as I expect New Jersey to be fighting with Carolina for the division title. In fact, I expect the Devils to challenge the Maple Leafs for the Conference title.
New York Islanders:
According to CapFriendly, the Islanders have 15 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders on their NHL roster, resulting in New York being $486.625 above the cap's upper limit. With the ability to send the 24th player down to the minors, GM Lou Lamoriello shouldn't have difficulties becoming cap compliant.
The Isles' had a quiet off-season after finishing 15th in overall points & making the playoffs. Mainly re-signing their own players like goalies Ilya Sorokin/Semyon Varlamov, F Pierre Engvall, & D Scott Mayfield. Lou did add a pair of bottom 6 forwards through free agency (Julien Gauthier & Karson Kuhlman), but they are basically running back the same roster.
With returning goaltenders (Sorokin/Varlamov) putting up .924 and .913 save percentages respectively and a defensive core of Ryan Pulock, Adam Pelech, Noah Dobson, Mayfield, Alexander Romanov, & Sebastian Aho, the Long Islanders will try to match last season's 6th best defense. 22 yr old Samuel Bolduc will try to become a NHL regular after getting into 17 games in 22-23.
New York's main offense will come from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, & Kyle Palmieri. If the Islanders hope to be better than the 10th worst scoring team again, they will need lots of help from the bottom 6 options: Cal Clutterbuck, Casey Cizikas, Engvall, Matt Martin, Ross Johnston, Hudson Fasching, and the free agent signings (Gauthier & Kuhlman).
Was standing pat the best route for the Islanders this off-season? With aging forwards (29.8 yr av) and goalies (31.5 yr av), can the franchise make some noise before it's time to rebuild/retool?
End Result:
The Islanders squeaked into the playoffs last season with 93 points and they're possibly going to need more if they want to make it again in 2023-24. New York had the 6th best goals against total in the previous season, so they will once again have to rely on their superb goaltending from Sorokin (career .924 save %).
Of note, only 5 goalies in the history of the NHL (Hasek, Dryden, Bower, Rask, & Bishop) have a .920% or better after a min of 250 games - Sorokin needs a 114 more games to reach that number, but he is in elite company at this point in his career.
Getting back to the Isles', I think their offense will continue to be average which will put them in a crowded wildcard race with teams like Buffalo, Ottawa, Detroit, Boston, Florida, etc. Not sure it works out for them this year.
New York Rangers:
The Rangers finished in 9th place last season and tried to "go for it" by making high end acquisitions like Patrick Kane & Vladimir Tarasenko, but ended up falling short. Those two players (and others) opted to walk in the off-season to other teams, so GM Chris Drury had some work to do to fill out his roster. CapFriendly has New York over the cap by $46,583, but with 13 F, 8 D, & 2 G on the team, they only have to send an extra defenseman to the minors to get back under.
The NYR went hard in free agency (F Blake Wheeler, G Jonathan Quick, F Tyler Pitlick, F Riley Nash, F Alex Belzile, F Nick Bonino, D Erik Gustafsson, & D Connor Mackey), seemingly focusing on quantity over quality. After that, Drury moved onto signing a couple of his important RFAs in D K'Andre Miller & F Alexis Lafreniere to bridge deals, though the latter took until August 23rd to get it done.
The Rangers have a world-class starter in Igor Shesterkin to combine with newly signed goalie Quick. Shesterkin has alternated between being good and great in his 4 year NHL career, having save percentages of .932, .916, .935, & .916. Though the Russian always seems to step it up a notch in the playoffs (.929 & .931%). Quick brings a veteran presence as a back up, but probably below average tending (.876% w/ LA & .901% w/ Vegas).
New York's defense was stellar last season, allowing an average of 2.76 goals per game, which was good for 4th least goals against in the NHL. The two free agent signings (Gustafsson & Mackey) will be battling for time with six returning members: Adam Fox, Jacob Trouba, Ryan Lindgren, Braden Schneider, Zachary Jones, & the previously mentioned Miller.
The Rangers also knew how to score last season, netting 277 goals in the regular season, good for 12th best in the league. The Blueshirts will be returning 9 forwards in 2023-24, with Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, Vincent Trocheck, Filip Chytil, Barclay Goodrow, Kaapo Kakko, Jimmy Vesey, & Lafreniere. Besides former Winnipeg Jet Wheeler, the other new signings (Pitlick, Bonino, & Belzile) will be fighting for bottom six roles.
Will the team from the Big Apple get enough offense to propel their team into the playoffs again in a tough Eastern Conference?
End Result:
Another NY team with excellent goaltending, as Shesterkin also has a career .924 save % in 158 NHL appearances. Add to that a strong defensive core and an above average top 9 (even with Wheeler in it), in my mind that should end up with a likely playoff spot when the dust settles on the regular season. Their 4th line is definitely not something to brag about and a couple injuries to key players could bring them back into the wildcard battle, but I expect them to be 2nd or 3rd in the Metro in 2023-24.
Should the Rangers be sellers at the trade deadline, they won't have many attractive options for other teams. The GM would be unlikely to trade the three expiring RFA contracts (Kakko, Lindgren, & Schneider), but could possibly find buyers for veterans Wheeler & Gustafsson.
Philadelphia Flyers:
The Flyers have over $12M in dead cap space due to buyouts & retained salary, but CapFriendly still has Philadelphia with $2,967,905 left to spend. They do still need to sign 24 yr old RFA forward Morgan Frost, who is coming off 46 pts in 81 games with that money. **note: reports are saying Frost is close to signing a 2 yr deal for $4M total.**
Coming off the 7th worst record in the NHL last season, GM Daniel Briere did some work in the off-season, even if it wasn't very flashy. The Flyers added F Garnet Hathaway, F Ryan Poehling, & D Marc Staal in free agency. Philly also picked up some players in a trade with the LA Kings (D Sean Walker and G Cal Petersen).
After being the 4th worst in scoring last season, the Flyers haven't added that much offense in the off-season. Hathaway's 22 pts in 84 games and Poehling's 14 pts in 53 games aren't going to move the needle much, especially considering they traded Kevin Hayes' 54 pts in 81 games to St. Louis (w/ retained salary). There are questions surrounding the availability of Sean Couturier and Cam Atkinson, who are both coming off severe injuries, but from the sounds of it they should be ready to attend training camp. Philly does have a talented healthy forward in Travis Konecny and he is coming off his first point per game NHL season. But they are going to have to rely on a bunch of middle 6ers for secondary offense (Owen Tippett, Scott Laughton, Joel Farabee, & Noah Cates). The Flyers will certainly need to get Frost signed to add to the remaining forward pool: Nicholas Deslauriers, Wade Allison, Tyson Foerster, & Tanner Laczynski.
Five Philadelphia defensemen are returning from the group that ended up 22nd in goals against (Travis Sanheim, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam York, Nick Seeler, & Yegor Zamula). Newly acquired/signed defenders M. Staal and Walker will join them and face a difficult challenge in improving team defense.
Coming into training camp, the Pennsylvania franchise has three options in net: 25 yr old Carter Hart, 26 yr old Felix Sandstrom, & 28 yr old Cal Petersen. It would seem that the starting job is Hart's (.907%) if he is healthy, with Sandstrom (.880%) and Petersen (.868%) scrapping for the backup role. With Petersen's best statistics at least two seasons away, Philadelphia are gambling that he can return to form and earn his $5M/yr salary (signed thru 24-25).
Don't think Philadelphians can hope for a Rocky-like underdog story from this year's version of the Flyers. I don't give them a shot at the playoffs in the East, so the real question is will they finish higher or lower than they did last year?
End Result:
If I was a gambling man, I think I would feel pretty comfortable betting that the Flyers don't make the playoffs in 23-24. Maybe I would go as far to guarantee a bottom 5 finish? A lot will depend on the health of Couturier, as he will give them a reliable 2-way center that they didn't have last season (limited to 29 games).
The Flyers are clearly in need for a rebuild and will add to their prospects with a minimum of two 1st and two 2nd round selections in the upcoming entry draft. Will they unload any more players in their rebuild if things continue to go bad? Would think that goalie Hart and center Frost would be good targets for Winnipeg & other teams if they were willing to let them go.
Pittsburgh Penguins:
According to CapFriendly, the Penguins are $79,342 over the cap, with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies on the NHL roster. Forward Jake Guentzel will start the year on LTIR due to injury, so while the team doesn't need to make a move immediately, they will have to find a way to shed $80k when the veteran is ready to return.
Pittsburgh's new GM, Kyle Dubas, has had quite the busy off-season attempting to give veteran stars like F Sidney Crosby, F Evgeni Malkin, and D Kris Letang one more shot at lifting the Stanley Cup. The former Maple Leaf GM signed or traded for a total of 10 players that will have a shot at making the NHL squad. The big additions were D Erik Karlsson (101 pts), F Reilly Smith (56 pts), & D Ryan Graves (26 pts), however the Pens brought in F Matt Nieto, F Noel Acciari, F Lars Eller, F Rem Pitlick, D Will Butcher, F Vinnie Hinostroza, F Andreas Johnsson, & G Alex Nedeljkovic to try and earn spots as well. Guess you can add PTOs like F Austin Wagner, D Mark Pysyk, & D Libor Hajek in there too.
The Pens had the 17th most goals for in 2023-24 and they will see if the newbies (Smith, Nieto, Acciari, Eller, Pitlick, Hinostroza, & Johnsson) can spark the veterans (Crosby, Malkin, Guentzel, Bryan Rust, Rickard Rakell, Jeff Carter, Drew O'Connor, & Alexander Nylander) to improve on that. Adding the most recent Norris Trophy winner to the roster should also help.
Whether Karlsson will help Pittsburgh do better than 18th in team defense this season is a different matter. They did add Graves too, who is much better defensively as possibly displayed by his career +84 plus-minus rating. Veteran Letang is one of five returning defenders, along with Marcus Pettersson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Chad Ruhwedel, & Ty Smith.
Besides bringing in goaltender Nedeljkovic (.895%) via free agency, Pittsburgh also re-signed Tristan Jarry (.909%) to a 5 yr deal @ $5.375M/yr. Seems the other NHL team from Pennsylvania is betting that Jarry will play closer to his 19-20 & 21-22 performances (.919%) throughout the contract.
After finishing 19th in team points last year, can Crosby lead the Penguins back to the playoffs? The training camp should be important for the franchise, as all the coaching staff needs to figure out how to integrate all the new faces.
End Result:
Not exactly sure what percent I would give to Pittsburgh's chances to make the playoffs, but it's somewhere in the middle range. Couldn't say the Pens were a lock to either make or miss the post-season, so I am going with somewhere in the 20 to 55% range.
Jarry's play and bottom six scoring will be key in determining things, as the defense and top 6 should be average or above barring injuries. Pitt tried to be bold this off-season and that either ends up paying off or blowing up in your face. In the end, I think while the Pens will be an exciting team to watch (with chances going both ways), they will end up falling short of the playoffs once again.
The franchise isn't built to be a trade deadline seller, as their upcoming UFA/RFAs will not be very coveted (possibly Nedeljkovic for a team in need of goaltending depth).
Washington Capitals:
The Washington Capitals are another squad that needs to do a bit more work to become cap compliant. CapFriendly has them $700,834 over the cap's upper limit, with only one pressbox player on their NHL roster. Rumours have surrounded the team that finished 25th in the league all off-season, with questions popping up about center Evgeny Kuznetsov and winger Anthony Mantha. But here we are in September and both are still part of the organization.
Washington added D Joel Edmundson from Montreal via trade and signed forwards Max Pacioretty and former Manitoba Moose/Winnipeg Jet Alex Limoges (54 pts in 63 AHL games) in free agency. In reality, Limoges will be playing for last year's AHL Calder Cup champions, the Hersey Bears, but thought I would throw him a mention.
The Capitals were 20th in goals for in 2022-23 and will be relying on improvement from over 30 yr old forwards (Alex Ovechkin, Nicholas Backstrom, Kuznetsov, TJ Oshie, & Nic Dowd), 26 to 29 yr olds (Mantha, Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome, Sonny Milano, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, & Joe Snively), and 22 yr old Aliaksei Protas.
Washington also needs a stauncher defensive unit (19th best goals against) if they want to return to the post-season. Edmundson coming in from the Canadiens is the only new player, and he will join 30+ yr old veterans (John Carlson, Nick Jensen, & Trevor van Riemsdyk) & a trio of 23 yr olds (Rasmus Sandin, Martin Fehervary, & Alexander Alexeyev) to form the Caps core.
Goalie Darcy Kuemper was only slightly above average (.909%) in his first year with Washington and will be looking to return to the numbers he put up in Colorado & Arizona (.921 to .928%). He will be backed up by Charlie Lindgren, who put up a .899 save % in 31 NHL games last season.
Other than adding a gamble in the form of the health of Pacioretty and a veteran bottom 4 defender in Edmundson, the Capitals' GM Brian MacLellan didn't do a whole lot. Wonder if he actually expects this team to make the playoffs??? Makes me wonder if he knows that often quoted definition of insanity?
End Result:
I am hoping that Capital fans will be satisfied with watching Ovechkin chase Wayne Gretzky's goal scoring record, because they will need all kinds of luck to win the wildcard race in the East. Definitely don't see them finishing higher than that.
Kuemper does have the talent to raise the level of his play, but I don't see the recent skater additions making enough of an impact to get them over the top (Pacioretty has only played 44 games over the past 2 seasons). My high end prediction is barely missing the playoffs after a tight wildcard race and the low end is a top 5 overall draft selection in 2024.
At the deadline, we will likely get to see management trying to move upcoming UFAs like Mantha, Pacioretty, and Edmundson to get additional picks/prospects.
