A Breakdown of the Atlantic Division - Early Sep Edition
Sept 10, 2023 20:37:35 GMT -6
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Post by bigoljetairliner on Sept 10, 2023 20:37:35 GMT -6
Boston Bruins:
The Boston Bruins are coming off an unbelievable regular season in 2022-23, amassing a humongous 135 pts to win the Presidents' Trophy. This season, CapFriendly has the Bruins with only $429,166 left to spend and 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their roster. Management will probably have to send one of their defense to the minors and call up/sign an extra forward before the season starts (maybe one of the PTO forwards Alex Chiasson & Danton Heinen).
Boston has had an active off-season as they try to deal with the retirements of forwards Patrice Bergeron & David Krejci and a very tight cap situation. GM Don Sweeney got things started shedding salary by shipping F Taylor Hall & F Nick Foligno to the Chicago Blackhawks for D Ian Mitchell & D Alec Regula. He also made a minor league trade, sending F Shane Bowers to the NJ Devils for D Reilly Walsh. The B's kept busy when free agency began on July 1st, signing a slew of players: F James van Riemsdyk (29 pts), F Morgan Geekie (28 pts), D Kevin Shattenkirk (27 pts), F Jesper Boqvist (21 pts), F Milan Lucic (19 pts), & F Patrick Brown (12 pts).
The Bruins were one of two teams last season to break the 300 goal mark in the regular season, finishing 2nd to the Edmonton Oilers. I don't think the team has a chance at coming close to that again this year with only four proven top 6 players remaining on the roster (Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, & Pavel Zacha). Boston will be relying on the new players (van Riemsdyk, Geekie, Boqvist, Lucic, & Brown) to fill out the rest of the lineup in combination with returning forwards (Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle, & AJ Greer).
Boston's defense was also superb last season, being the only team to allow less than 200 goals (177!!) in 82 regular season games. This is where the good news for Beantown fans starts, as the franchise is returning their six main defenders: Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Derek Forbort, & Jakub Zboril. With newly acquired Shattenkirk & Mitchell joining the fight for one of the 7 spots, it appears the Bruin's defense should be very good at stifling opponents' offenses.
The reasons for optimism continue in net, with the reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark coming off a season for the ages (40-6-1, 1.89 GAA, .938%). The Bruins also have promising 24 yr old Jeremy Swayman as a solid backup or 1B option (2.27 GAA/.920%), giving them one of the best goaltender tandems in the league.
Going into their 100th NHL season, can the Boston Bruins overcome the retirements of Bergeron & Krejci and remain a playoff team? What players will grasp the opportunity to step into top 6 forwards roles?
End Result:
Honestly, prior to doing my research I was planning on writing something with a "decline of an empire" theme, but the actual data has altered my outlook. The Boston Bruins had a dominant defensive unit (D & goalies) last season and those units are entirely intact (actually improved with Shattenkirk in for Reilly) for 2023-24.
If the Bruins can perform close to the same defensively, they could probably overcome the loss of 50 to 60 goals and still have a +45 to +65 goal differential (8 teams managed a +50 g/dif last yr).
While I can't really state with any certainty how the Boston Bruins season will end, I do expect them to finish in the 3rd to 7th range in the Eastern Conference. I believe the loss of Bergeron, Krejci, & Hall will stop the Bruins from challenging the top teams in the East, but they should still be a force when it comes to claiming a playoff spot.
Should things go really off the rails this season in Boston, the team could try to flip players like DeBrusk, Lucic, van Riemsdyk, Grzelcyk, Forbort, & Shattenkirk for more draft picks/prospects at the deadline.
Buffalo Sabres:
As it stands, the Buffalo Sabres have $8,776,430 left to spend, despite having 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies counting against the cap. Management knows with RFAs like F Casey Mittelstadt, D Rasmus Dahlin, & D Owen Powers on expiring contracts, they will need that cap space next season.
Once free agency began, the Sabres re-signed one of their own UFAs (F Tyson Jost), who put up 22 pts in 59 games after being acquired from Minnesota. GM Kevyn Adams then dipped into the UFA pool again by getting D Erik Johnson & D Connor Clifton to sign contracts with Buffalo. Adams finished off his free agency work by shoring up the franchise's goaltending depth with minor league goalies Dustin Tokarski & Devin Cooley.
Coming off being the 3rd best offense in the NHL last season, Buffalo will be relying on their point producing forwards to keep it up this season (Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Jack Quinn, & Victor Olofsson). The remainder of the lineup will be filled by returning players like Jost, Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway, Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo, Lukas Rousek, & 21 yr old John-Jason Peterka. There is also a chance that Matthew Savoie makes the NHL roster after putting up 90 & 95 pts the past two seasons in Juniors. Unfortunately, since the 19 yr old was born on January 1st and not December 31st, he won't be eligible for the AHL in 23-24.
The Sabres were the 7th worse in goals against in 22-23 and have added to the defensive unit around stars Rasmus Dahlin & Owen Powers with the FA signings of Clifton & E. Johnson. The other spots will be fought over by Henri Jokiharju, Mattias Samuelsson, Jacob Bryson, & Riley Stillman.
The goaltending situation seems less than ideal for a team with playoff hopes, with Eric Comrie putting up a .886 save % in his first year (19 games) in Buffalo as the highest paid ($1.8M) tender. It seems he will share the net with 24 yr old Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.892% in 33 starts) since he would need to clear waivers before being assigned to the AHL. The Sabres do have waiver-exempt 21 yr old Devon Levi to call on as well and he put up a .905 save % in his first 7 games with Buffalo.
With five 1st round draft picks close to being NHL ready, but still not on the roster (F Savoie, F Zach Benson, F Isak Rosen, F Juri Kulich, & D Ryan Johnson), are the Buffalo Sabres ready to start making the playoffs or are they a season away?
End Result:
Head coach Don Granato's systems seem to produce plenty of offense, so Buffalo's playoff hopes are going to be in the hands of improvement on the defensive side of things.
The Sabres fell short of the playoffs last season by 1 pt, so you would think that even marginal improvement by their defense and goaltending should result in a berth in 23-24. As I do the math in my head, I start to tick off playoff spots that will be won by other teams in the East and quickly realize that Buffalo will likely have to be happy with securing one of the two wildcard spots. However, there are so many Eastern teams that could be in the hunt for a wildcard spot, it could really make things difficult for the team from upper New York.
While Buffalo aren't my favourite of the six teams vying for the final two spots, they are definitely in the top 4. Let's say I want the Sabres to grab that final playoff spot over the competition, but it will largely depend on whether their goaltending can be much more consistent. Not hugely confident in the masked trio, so will not be surprised if they fall short.
The franchise does have a bunch of players on expiring contracts, but for the most part their UFAs wouldn't be in high demand from playoff teams at the deadline (Olofsson possibly being the exception). The 2023-24 trade deadline might be less active than usual, as I feel the Sabres will be too close to a playoff spot to be sellers, a position many teams in the East & West may find themselves in this year.
Detroit Red Wings:
The Detroit Red Wings have $5,156,527 remaining under the salary cap, with 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their roster. With F Lucas Raymond and D Moritz Seider due big raises in 2024-25, the cap situation will be tighter in future seasons.
GM Steve Yzerman started the off-season out by trading for forwards Klim Kostin & Kailer Yamamoto from the Edmonton Oilers, though he immeditely bought Yamamoto's contract out. He then got busy in free agency, signing F Daniel Sprong (46 pts), F JT Compher (52 pts), F Christian Fischer (27 pts), D Shayne Gostisbehere (41 pts), D Justin Holl (18 pts), & G James Reimer (.890%). Not being done there, the Red Wings also mutually terminated the contract of F Filip Zadina and traded for F Alex Debrincat (OTT - 66 pts) and D Jeff Petry (MTL - 31 pts).
Returning Detroit forwards Raymond, Dylan Larkin, former Jet Andrew Copp, David Perron, Robby Fabri, Jonatan Berggren, & Joseph Veleno will be joined by newcomers Kostin, Debrincat, Sprong, Compher, & Fischer to try and improve on last year's 24th place finish in goals scored.
The Wings were 23rd in goals allowed last season and the team will be looking for the new guys (Gostisbehere, Petry, & Holl) to improve on that. The talented & young Seider, Ben Chiarot, Jake Walman, Olli Maatta, & Jared McIsaac will be returning to fill out the lineup.
Last year's starter Ville Husso (.896%) is coming off a rough season and backup Reimer (.890%) will provide a similar level of play. The Wings do have 20 yr old Sebastian Cossa (.913% in ECHL) in the minors and maybe this is the year the former 15th overall selection takes a big step in his development to provide another option.
With five new forwards, three new defensemen, and a new back up goalie, is Detroit ready to take the next step?
End Result:
Detroit was well out of a playoff spot when the dust settled on the 2022-23 regular season, but the GM was aggressive in adding to his squad in the off-season. Yzerman definitely improved his offensive & defensive units, but will it be enough to become a playoff-caliber franchise.
While I think management is hopeful this group will take a big step forward to qualify for the post-season, I don't think they will be that surprised if they fall short. If I was a GM with this roster and was determined to avoid having my season end early, I would have addressed the goaltending to give my squad their best chance. Would trading for Connor Hellebuyck ensure a playoff spot? No, but it would basically allow the Red Wings to allow one less goal against per game (based on 30 shots per game & Husso/Hellebuyck's save percentages last season). FYI -if the Wings allowed 82 less goals last year, they would have had the second best GA in the NHL with 197.
It's possibly Husso returns to the .919% that he put up in his last year with the St. Louis Blues, but I think it is more likely that Detroit improves just enough to be in a very tight wildcard spot race.
If I'm correct with my projection, then the Wings may miss out on the chance to flip guys like Perron, Sprong, Fischer, & Gostisbehere at the trade deadline.
Florida Panthers:
The Florida Panthers are another NHL team that has injuries making their cap situation more difficult. CapFriendly has the Cats over the salary cap's upper limit by $1,175,001, with 13 forwards, 10 defensemen, and 3 goalies on the roster. With two RDs dealing with injuries (Aaron Ekblad & Brandon Montour) that GM Bill Zito says will keep them out "until November to January", the Panthers will have $11M on injured reserve for part of the season. It sounds like G Spencer Knight will be returning from the NHLPA Assistance Program and that would allow the team to send G Anthony Stolarz's $1.1M contract to the minors along with an extra defender to get under the cap, even with the $11M on LTIR.
Zito had a seriously active opening day of free agency, trading F Anthony Duclair to the SJ Sharks for F Steven Lorentz (19 pts) and then signing FAs D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22 pts), F Kevin Stenlund (9 pts), D Dmitry Kulikov (16 pts), D Mike Reilly (1 pt), D Niko Mikkola (6 pts), and G Anthony Stolarz. Florida added one last FA to the team on July 2nd in F Evan Rodrigues (39 pts) to complete their off-season moves.
The Panthers just squeaked into the playoffs last season and then grabbed a hold of the opportunity, riding hot goaltending & timely scoring to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. During the regular season, Florida allowed the 12th most goals against and will have G Sergei Bobrovsky (.901% reg/.915% post) as their starter. Coach Paul Maurice will have free agent signing Stolarz (.899%) and 22 yr old Knight (.901%) as back up options, though the youngster is waiver exempt so that might work against him (though Knight's contract is well over the norm minor league amount).
Team defense will obviously take a hit to start the season with their two best defensemen on the sidelines (Ekblad - 38 pts/Montour - 73 pts), so new players like Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Mikkola, & Reilly will have to step up in the mean time. Two other returning defenders will also play key roles (Gustav Forsling - 41 pts & Josh Mahura - 16 pts), while part-timers like Lucas Carlsson (2 games) and Matt Kiersted (20 games) will use training camp to try to secure an NHL spot.
Maurice's squad had the 5th best offense in the NHL in 22-23 with 290 goals scored and Florida has strong top 9 options: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and newly added Rodrigues. The staff will fill out the roster with veterans like Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomberg, former Jet Stenlund, and Lorentz. 23 yr old Grigori Denisenko played 18 NHL games last season and will vie for a bigger role in 2023-24.
Can the Panthers build on last season's success despite missing some key cogs early in the season? Can Bobrovsky maintain his return to above average goaltending?
End Result:
Despite Florida coming off a Stanley Cup appearance, I am not comfortable saying that the Panthers will be one of the East's elite teams (top 4) in 2023-24. There are numerous reasons for this, including the Cats' poor regular season performance in 22-23, the injuries to defensemen Ekblad & Montour, and years of watching teams coached by Paul Maurice.
There is no doubt the franchise has some quality offensive players (Tkachuk, Barkov, Verhaeghe, & Reinhart) and the tandem of Bobrovsky & Knight should provide above average goaltending. Florida should be able to ride these things to a playoff berth, but there is a small chance they lose a tight & crowded wildcard race. Let's say a range of 5th to 9th in the Eastern Conference.
The Panthers only have 7 forwards, 2 defenseman, & 1 goalie signed beyond this season, so they will have lots of expiring contracts to consider moving at the deadline, including Reinhart and Forsling. However, I can't see the team being far enough from a wildcard spot at the deadline for this to be an issue for the GM.
Montreal Canadiens:
The CapFriendly page for the Montreal Canadiens is a confusing mess, containing pretty much everything that could happen to a franchise's cap situation. There is a $833,333 buyout hit from Karl Alzner, just over $4M in retained salary on Jeff Petry & Joel Edmundson, and goalie Carey Price's $10.5M on long-term injured reserve. The website adds to the uncertainty by having 14 forwards, 10 defensemen, and 3 goaltenders (four more than the allowed 23). The result of all that is the Canadiens are $4,727,916 over the cap's limit of $83.5M, yet they could shed another $3.5M by sending the lowest four players (3D/1G) to the minors. GM Kent Hughes could get within $500k of being cap compliant if they can find a taker for G Casey DeSmith's $1.8M salary and could probably get under the cap by sending higher paid waiver-exempt players down (D Harris, D Barron, & D Reinbacher) and keeping lower paid defenders such as Kovacevic, Wideman, & Xhekaj. If not, they always have Price's LTIR hit to fall back on.
Montreal wasn't really a player in free agency, but they did make a few trades to try and improve the squad. The first move they made was acquiring F Alex Newhook's 30 pts from Colorada, then the Habs got involved in a 3-way trade with Pittsburgh & San Jose that netted them D Jeff Petry and G DeSmith. Nine days later, Hughes flipped Petry to Detroit for D G Gustav Lindstrom (8 pts in 36 gms) for the Canadiens last transaction.
For a team coming off the 7th least amount of goals last season, they will be betting on improvement from their youth since Montreal only added Newhook to the forwards corp. With proven scorers Nick Suzuki & Cole Caufield leading the offense, the coaching staff will look for improvement from young high-end prospects such as Juraj Slafkozsky & Kirby Dach. The forward unit will be filled out with oft-injured players (Brendan Gallagher & Sean Monahan), veterans (Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia, & Jake Evans), and 23-25 yr olds (Michael Pezzetta, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, & Jesse Ylonen).
Coach St. Louis has 10 options to improve last year's 4th worst defense, including veterans like Michael Matheson, David Savard, & Chris Wideman. Mid-agers Johnathan Kovacevic & Lindstrom will vie for spots with a group of young prospects (Jordan Harris, David Reinbacher, Justin Barron, Kaiden Guhle, & Arber Xhekaj).
All three goaltending options for the Canadiens are coming off similar seasons, with Jake Allen putting up .891 save % over 42 games, Samuel Montembeault playing 40 games with a .901 save %, and acquired DeSmith amassing .905 save % in 38 Penguins' games. The plan was obviously to flip DeSmith and run with Allen & Montembeault in the crease, but who knows how it will play out with training camps just days away from starting.
Do the fledgling Habs finally take a big step forward in their rebuild in a very tough division & conference?
End Result:
What are the chances a team will qualify for the post-season a year removed from being the 5th worst team in the NHL? Don't bother pulling out your pencil & paper, I am fairly certain the answer is "pretty slim".
I could be wrong, but I don't see Newhook and DeSmith sparking that huge of a turn-around. Even if all the young players make big strides in their development, the Canadiens are going to be over-matched by every team in their division. Shockingly, the leads me to conclude that Montreal will not make the post-season and will finish dead-last in the Atlantic Division. My crystal ball seems to agree, predicting that the Habs will finish somewhere from 22nd and 29th in 2023-24 (the ball only cost $5, so it's not super specific...you get what you pay for, I guess).
It should be fun for people who like the Canadiens to watch the ongoing development of their youth, but they might not be able to add huge assets as sellers at the trade deadline with limited UFA options to sell (Monahan, DeSmith, Montebeault, & Wideman).
Ottawa Senators:
The Senators have over $5M in dead cap this season due to retained salary/buyouts, making their salary cap situation much harder to manage. CapFriendly has Ottawa with 11 forwards, 7 defensemen, & 2 goalies on their roster and only $895,953 left to sign players with. That matters, as they still have two unsigned RFAs in Shane Pinto (35 pts) & Egor Sokolov (2 pts in 5 NHL games). GM Pierre Dorion has his work cut out for him, but Pinto's qualifying offer is $874,125 and would give them at least 12 forwards if he ends up signing it.
The NHL team from our nation's capital ended up signing three free agents this off-season: G Joonas Korpisalo (.913% w/ Columbus & .921 w/ LA), F Zach MacEwen (10 pts), and F Vladimir Tarasenko (50 pts). The GM was forced to trade F Alex Debrincat and was able to get F Dominik Kubalik (45 pts), a prospect, and some picks in return. Most recently, the Senators locked up one of their young defenders (Jake Sanderson) with a long-term contract, giving him a $7.125M raise in 2024-25.
20th in goals against last season, Ottawa have pushed all their chips in on goalie Korpisalo for a big improvement in between the pipes. The newly acquired masked man had an above average to great season in 22-23, but the two previous years in Columbus were substandard (.877% & .894%) so there is no guarantee the gamble will work. The Sens back up will be Anton Forsberg, who dressed for 28 NHL games last year with a .902 save percentage.
The Senators' defensive core has an average age of 25.6 years and without any new bodies incoming, the franchise will be depending on growth from their youth in order to improve play in their own zone. The three key defenders for Ottawa are the previously mentioned Sanderson, along with Thomas Chabot & Jakob Chychrun. The coach can fill the blue line with players like Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom, Travis Hamonic, & Jacob Bernard-Docker.
Ottawa's scorers finished 18th in goals for in 2022-23 and will be counting on newbies like Tarasenko and Kubalik to make up the loss of Debrincat's offense. Those two could be joined in the top 6 by point producers such as Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, & Drake Batherson. Mathieu Joseph, Mark Kastelic, Zach MacEwen, & Parker Kelly are signed to fill out the roster, leaving the unsigned Pinto & Sokolov as the final forwards in the mix.
The Sens have improved from 51 pts in 20-21, 73 pts in 21-22, and 86 pts last season.....can they keep that trajectory up and make the playoffs this year??
End Result:
The Senators added more offense than they lost this off-season and if they get the best version of Korpisalo, the franchise could legitimately challenge for one of those Eastern wildcard spots.
If is a bit difficult to project for Ottawa, since they haven't signed a key player yet and you have to wonder if more moves will occur before the puck drops on the regular season. The Sens were 5 or 6 points from a post-season spot in 22-23 and will have to fight with 5 or 6 teams for one this year.
While I like many of the Senators' components and think they could be significantly improved in 2023-24, I still end up with them missing the playoffs more often than not. Top end, I think they could finish as high as 6th in the East, but it's more likely they end up in the 10th to 12th range.
Should Ottawa be well out of a playoff spot by the trade deadline, they do have Tarasenko & Kubalik as upcoming UFAs to possibly move. My view is that they are another team that will be too close to contention to become sellers.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Tampa's another NHL team that will be using long-term injured reserve to go beyond the $83.5M limit in 2023-24. Currently CapFriendly has the Lightning $7,748,333 above the cap, but with D Brent Seabrook's $6.875M contract on LTIR, management needs to shed $873,333 to avoid trouble from Gary Bettman & co. With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, & 2 goalies on Tampa Bay's NHL roster, GM Julien BriseBois will probably have to send a forward & defender down to the minors to get under the cap (since the likely suspects all earn $800k or less).
A franchise used to being without cap space, the team had a typical off-season by re-signing a couple of their players (F Brandon Hagel & F Tanner Jeannot) and then dipping into the free agent bargain bin (F Connor Sheary, F Logan Brown, F Josh Archibald, D Calvin De Haan, F Luke Glendening, & G Jonas Johansson). Archibald's contract ended up being terminated on a mutually agreed basis, resulting in Tampa signing F Tyler Motte to replace him.
After finishing with the 8th best offense last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have some solid top 9 options in Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Nicholas Paul, Jeannot, & Hagel. In addition to the five previously mentioned free agent forward signings, the Lightning have options in Mikey Eyssimont & Alex Barre-Boulet to pick from to round out the lineup.
Tampa Bay had the 14th best goals against last season and have added De Haan to seven returning defenders (Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, Nick Prebix, Zach Bogosian, Haydn Fleury, & Darren Raddysh). 26 yr old Phillipe Myers could also be in play, but his $1.4M contract might have to stay in the minors due to the cap situation.
The great Andrei Vasilevskiy will once get the vast majority of starts for the Bolts, although the Russian is coming off his lowest season save percentage (.915%) since 2015-16 (his 2nd NHL season). He will be backed up by free agent signing Johansson, who had a .932% in 3 NHL games with Colorado and a .920% in the AHL.
The Lightning saw a 12 pt drop in 2022-23 (98 pts) from 2021-22 (110 pts), will that pattern continue and put them in danger of missing the post-season?
End Result:
The Tampa Bay Lightnings' key players (Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel, Vasilevskiy, & aging Stamkos) will be expected to continue their strong play, but the season may depend more on how much forwards like Jeannot & Paul contribute.
While Vasilevskiy's play was still well above average last season, you should probably expect the 29 yr old tender to return to elite form in 2023-24. Very much like the Bruins, I can see Tampa Bay failing to stick with the top two teams in the conference, but have a hard time putting them outside of the playoffs. Therefore, I will go with the exact same prediction and the Bolts will finish somewhere between 3rd and 7th in the East.
The Lightning probably won't be sellers at the trade deadline and that's probably a good thing as the only attractive upcoming UFA for playoff teams would be Tampa's captain, Steven Stamkos. Not sure if the team is ready to move on from their long-time fan favourite.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
We end with the Toronto Maple Leafs, another team that needs to make further maneuvers to avoid trouble from the NHL's cap police. CapFriendly has the Leafs at $13,256,450 over the cap's limit, spending a massive $96,756,450 on player salaries (including 14F/8 D/4G). However, D Jake Muzzin & G Matt Murray are once again destined for the LTIR giving Toronto the ability to go $10,312,500 over the upper limit. That leaves GM Brad Treliving with $2,943,950 left to shed and I'm not exactly sure how he will pull it off. Yes, the GM can lose G Jones' $875k by sending him to the minors and also save another $775k-$925k by shipping one of the fowards to the Marlies, but that doesn't quite get it done.
While TO lost Bunting's production this off-season, they did sign unrestricted free agents to improve the forward unit: F Max Domi (56 pts), F Tyler Bertuzzi (30 pts), F Ryan Reaves (15 pts), & F Dylan Gambrell (10 pts). Treliving tinkered with his defensive core by signing UFA John Klingberg (33 pts).
The talented trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, & William Nylander led the Maple Leafs to the 11th most goals scored in 22-23. They will be back this season to join usual teammates John Tavares, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, & Pontus Holmberg. New signings Domi, Bertuzzi, Reaves, & Gambrell will fill out the roster with young prospects Matthew Knies & Nicholas Robertson. Toronto also have PTO Noah Gregor as another forward option.
Toronto finished 5th in GA in 2022-23 and are hoping to replicate that feat this season. Besides Klingberg, six returning defenders will be filling out the corps: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, & veteran Mark Giordano.
Management ended up having to go to arbitration to get it done, but they eventually inked starter Ilya Samsonov to a new contract after he put up a .919 save % in his first seaon in the blue & white. The Leafs have options for the back up role, with 25 yr old Joseph Woll coming off a .932 save % in 7 NHL games and 33 yr old Martin Jones (.887% in 48 games w/ SEA).
Don't think the playoffs should be in doubt for Toronto, but can their long-suffering fans hope for more from the team that just getting to the dance? Maybe the Leafs can build on winning their first playoff series since 2012-13.
End Result:
The Toronto Maple Leafs appear to be one of the powerhouse franchises in 2023-24 after adding toughness and scoring in Bertuzzi & Domi. The team will be hoping for Samsonov to continue his strong play, but even if he plays closer to the NHL average, the Maple Leafs should challenge for a top 4 finish in the Eastern Conference.
The franchise's defensive core still isn't that impressive, but there is enough talent & depth on the roster to ensure they are above average at keeping pucks out of their net.
I don't think I am going out on a limb by predicting that Toronto will end up winning the Atlantic Division this season. I might even go as far to say that the boys from TO will likely edge out the NJ Devils for the Eastern Conference title.
The Maple Leafs have a slew of upcoming UFAs that could be moved at the deadline, but I doubt we will see guys like Nylander, Domi, Bertuzzi, Brodie, Klingberg, Giordano, & Samsonov up for grabs.
The Boston Bruins are coming off an unbelievable regular season in 2022-23, amassing a humongous 135 pts to win the Presidents' Trophy. This season, CapFriendly has the Bruins with only $429,166 left to spend and 12 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their roster. Management will probably have to send one of their defense to the minors and call up/sign an extra forward before the season starts (maybe one of the PTO forwards Alex Chiasson & Danton Heinen).
Boston has had an active off-season as they try to deal with the retirements of forwards Patrice Bergeron & David Krejci and a very tight cap situation. GM Don Sweeney got things started shedding salary by shipping F Taylor Hall & F Nick Foligno to the Chicago Blackhawks for D Ian Mitchell & D Alec Regula. He also made a minor league trade, sending F Shane Bowers to the NJ Devils for D Reilly Walsh. The B's kept busy when free agency began on July 1st, signing a slew of players: F James van Riemsdyk (29 pts), F Morgan Geekie (28 pts), D Kevin Shattenkirk (27 pts), F Jesper Boqvist (21 pts), F Milan Lucic (19 pts), & F Patrick Brown (12 pts).
The Bruins were one of two teams last season to break the 300 goal mark in the regular season, finishing 2nd to the Edmonton Oilers. I don't think the team has a chance at coming close to that again this year with only four proven top 6 players remaining on the roster (Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Jake DeBrusk, & Pavel Zacha). Boston will be relying on the new players (van Riemsdyk, Geekie, Boqvist, Lucic, & Brown) to fill out the rest of the lineup in combination with returning forwards (Trent Frederic, Charlie Coyle, & AJ Greer).
Boston's defense was also superb last season, being the only team to allow less than 200 goals (177!!) in 82 regular season games. This is where the good news for Beantown fans starts, as the franchise is returning their six main defenders: Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm, Brandon Carlo, Matt Grzelcyk, Derek Forbort, & Jakub Zboril. With newly acquired Shattenkirk & Mitchell joining the fight for one of the 7 spots, it appears the Bruin's defense should be very good at stifling opponents' offenses.
The reasons for optimism continue in net, with the reigning Vezina Trophy winner Linus Ullmark coming off a season for the ages (40-6-1, 1.89 GAA, .938%). The Bruins also have promising 24 yr old Jeremy Swayman as a solid backup or 1B option (2.27 GAA/.920%), giving them one of the best goaltender tandems in the league.
Going into their 100th NHL season, can the Boston Bruins overcome the retirements of Bergeron & Krejci and remain a playoff team? What players will grasp the opportunity to step into top 6 forwards roles?
End Result:
Honestly, prior to doing my research I was planning on writing something with a "decline of an empire" theme, but the actual data has altered my outlook. The Boston Bruins had a dominant defensive unit (D & goalies) last season and those units are entirely intact (actually improved with Shattenkirk in for Reilly) for 2023-24.
If the Bruins can perform close to the same defensively, they could probably overcome the loss of 50 to 60 goals and still have a +45 to +65 goal differential (8 teams managed a +50 g/dif last yr).
While I can't really state with any certainty how the Boston Bruins season will end, I do expect them to finish in the 3rd to 7th range in the Eastern Conference. I believe the loss of Bergeron, Krejci, & Hall will stop the Bruins from challenging the top teams in the East, but they should still be a force when it comes to claiming a playoff spot.
Should things go really off the rails this season in Boston, the team could try to flip players like DeBrusk, Lucic, van Riemsdyk, Grzelcyk, Forbort, & Shattenkirk for more draft picks/prospects at the deadline.
Buffalo Sabres:
As it stands, the Buffalo Sabres have $8,776,430 left to spend, despite having 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies counting against the cap. Management knows with RFAs like F Casey Mittelstadt, D Rasmus Dahlin, & D Owen Powers on expiring contracts, they will need that cap space next season.
Once free agency began, the Sabres re-signed one of their own UFAs (F Tyson Jost), who put up 22 pts in 59 games after being acquired from Minnesota. GM Kevyn Adams then dipped into the UFA pool again by getting D Erik Johnson & D Connor Clifton to sign contracts with Buffalo. Adams finished off his free agency work by shoring up the franchise's goaltending depth with minor league goalies Dustin Tokarski & Devin Cooley.
Coming off being the 3rd best offense in the NHL last season, Buffalo will be relying on their point producing forwards to keep it up this season (Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt, Jack Quinn, & Victor Olofsson). The remainder of the lineup will be filled by returning players like Jost, Peyton Krebs, Jordan Greenway, Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo, Lukas Rousek, & 21 yr old John-Jason Peterka. There is also a chance that Matthew Savoie makes the NHL roster after putting up 90 & 95 pts the past two seasons in Juniors. Unfortunately, since the 19 yr old was born on January 1st and not December 31st, he won't be eligible for the AHL in 23-24.
The Sabres were the 7th worse in goals against in 22-23 and have added to the defensive unit around stars Rasmus Dahlin & Owen Powers with the FA signings of Clifton & E. Johnson. The other spots will be fought over by Henri Jokiharju, Mattias Samuelsson, Jacob Bryson, & Riley Stillman.
The goaltending situation seems less than ideal for a team with playoff hopes, with Eric Comrie putting up a .886 save % in his first year (19 games) in Buffalo as the highest paid ($1.8M) tender. It seems he will share the net with 24 yr old Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (.892% in 33 starts) since he would need to clear waivers before being assigned to the AHL. The Sabres do have waiver-exempt 21 yr old Devon Levi to call on as well and he put up a .905 save % in his first 7 games with Buffalo.
With five 1st round draft picks close to being NHL ready, but still not on the roster (F Savoie, F Zach Benson, F Isak Rosen, F Juri Kulich, & D Ryan Johnson), are the Buffalo Sabres ready to start making the playoffs or are they a season away?
End Result:
Head coach Don Granato's systems seem to produce plenty of offense, so Buffalo's playoff hopes are going to be in the hands of improvement on the defensive side of things.
The Sabres fell short of the playoffs last season by 1 pt, so you would think that even marginal improvement by their defense and goaltending should result in a berth in 23-24. As I do the math in my head, I start to tick off playoff spots that will be won by other teams in the East and quickly realize that Buffalo will likely have to be happy with securing one of the two wildcard spots. However, there are so many Eastern teams that could be in the hunt for a wildcard spot, it could really make things difficult for the team from upper New York.
While Buffalo aren't my favourite of the six teams vying for the final two spots, they are definitely in the top 4. Let's say I want the Sabres to grab that final playoff spot over the competition, but it will largely depend on whether their goaltending can be much more consistent. Not hugely confident in the masked trio, so will not be surprised if they fall short.
The franchise does have a bunch of players on expiring contracts, but for the most part their UFAs wouldn't be in high demand from playoff teams at the deadline (Olofsson possibly being the exception). The 2023-24 trade deadline might be less active than usual, as I feel the Sabres will be too close to a playoff spot to be sellers, a position many teams in the East & West may find themselves in this year.
Detroit Red Wings:
The Detroit Red Wings have $5,156,527 remaining under the salary cap, with 13 forwards, 8 defensemen, and 2 goalies on their roster. With F Lucas Raymond and D Moritz Seider due big raises in 2024-25, the cap situation will be tighter in future seasons.
GM Steve Yzerman started the off-season out by trading for forwards Klim Kostin & Kailer Yamamoto from the Edmonton Oilers, though he immeditely bought Yamamoto's contract out. He then got busy in free agency, signing F Daniel Sprong (46 pts), F JT Compher (52 pts), F Christian Fischer (27 pts), D Shayne Gostisbehere (41 pts), D Justin Holl (18 pts), & G James Reimer (.890%). Not being done there, the Red Wings also mutually terminated the contract of F Filip Zadina and traded for F Alex Debrincat (OTT - 66 pts) and D Jeff Petry (MTL - 31 pts).
Returning Detroit forwards Raymond, Dylan Larkin, former Jet Andrew Copp, David Perron, Robby Fabri, Jonatan Berggren, & Joseph Veleno will be joined by newcomers Kostin, Debrincat, Sprong, Compher, & Fischer to try and improve on last year's 24th place finish in goals scored.
The Wings were 23rd in goals allowed last season and the team will be looking for the new guys (Gostisbehere, Petry, & Holl) to improve on that. The talented & young Seider, Ben Chiarot, Jake Walman, Olli Maatta, & Jared McIsaac will be returning to fill out the lineup.
Last year's starter Ville Husso (.896%) is coming off a rough season and backup Reimer (.890%) will provide a similar level of play. The Wings do have 20 yr old Sebastian Cossa (.913% in ECHL) in the minors and maybe this is the year the former 15th overall selection takes a big step in his development to provide another option.
With five new forwards, three new defensemen, and a new back up goalie, is Detroit ready to take the next step?
End Result:
Detroit was well out of a playoff spot when the dust settled on the 2022-23 regular season, but the GM was aggressive in adding to his squad in the off-season. Yzerman definitely improved his offensive & defensive units, but will it be enough to become a playoff-caliber franchise.
While I think management is hopeful this group will take a big step forward to qualify for the post-season, I don't think they will be that surprised if they fall short. If I was a GM with this roster and was determined to avoid having my season end early, I would have addressed the goaltending to give my squad their best chance. Would trading for Connor Hellebuyck ensure a playoff spot? No, but it would basically allow the Red Wings to allow one less goal against per game (based on 30 shots per game & Husso/Hellebuyck's save percentages last season). FYI -if the Wings allowed 82 less goals last year, they would have had the second best GA in the NHL with 197.
It's possibly Husso returns to the .919% that he put up in his last year with the St. Louis Blues, but I think it is more likely that Detroit improves just enough to be in a very tight wildcard spot race.
If I'm correct with my projection, then the Wings may miss out on the chance to flip guys like Perron, Sprong, Fischer, & Gostisbehere at the trade deadline.
Florida Panthers:
The Florida Panthers are another NHL team that has injuries making their cap situation more difficult. CapFriendly has the Cats over the salary cap's upper limit by $1,175,001, with 13 forwards, 10 defensemen, and 3 goalies on the roster. With two RDs dealing with injuries (Aaron Ekblad & Brandon Montour) that GM Bill Zito says will keep them out "until November to January", the Panthers will have $11M on injured reserve for part of the season. It sounds like G Spencer Knight will be returning from the NHLPA Assistance Program and that would allow the team to send G Anthony Stolarz's $1.1M contract to the minors along with an extra defender to get under the cap, even with the $11M on LTIR.
Zito had a seriously active opening day of free agency, trading F Anthony Duclair to the SJ Sharks for F Steven Lorentz (19 pts) and then signing FAs D Oliver Ekman-Larsson (22 pts), F Kevin Stenlund (9 pts), D Dmitry Kulikov (16 pts), D Mike Reilly (1 pt), D Niko Mikkola (6 pts), and G Anthony Stolarz. Florida added one last FA to the team on July 2nd in F Evan Rodrigues (39 pts) to complete their off-season moves.
The Panthers just squeaked into the playoffs last season and then grabbed a hold of the opportunity, riding hot goaltending & timely scoring to a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. During the regular season, Florida allowed the 12th most goals against and will have G Sergei Bobrovsky (.901% reg/.915% post) as their starter. Coach Paul Maurice will have free agent signing Stolarz (.899%) and 22 yr old Knight (.901%) as back up options, though the youngster is waiver exempt so that might work against him (though Knight's contract is well over the norm minor league amount).
Team defense will obviously take a hit to start the season with their two best defensemen on the sidelines (Ekblad - 38 pts/Montour - 73 pts), so new players like Ekman-Larsson, Kulikov, Mikkola, & Reilly will have to step up in the mean time. Two other returning defenders will also play key roles (Gustav Forsling - 41 pts & Josh Mahura - 16 pts), while part-timers like Lucas Carlsson (2 games) and Matt Kiersted (20 games) will use training camp to try to secure an NHL spot.
Maurice's squad had the 5th best offense in the NHL in 22-23 with 290 goals scored and Florida has strong top 9 options: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, Eetu Luostarinen, Anton Lundell, and newly added Rodrigues. The staff will fill out the roster with veterans like Nick Cousins, Ryan Lomberg, former Jet Stenlund, and Lorentz. 23 yr old Grigori Denisenko played 18 NHL games last season and will vie for a bigger role in 2023-24.
Can the Panthers build on last season's success despite missing some key cogs early in the season? Can Bobrovsky maintain his return to above average goaltending?
End Result:
Despite Florida coming off a Stanley Cup appearance, I am not comfortable saying that the Panthers will be one of the East's elite teams (top 4) in 2023-24. There are numerous reasons for this, including the Cats' poor regular season performance in 22-23, the injuries to defensemen Ekblad & Montour, and years of watching teams coached by Paul Maurice.
There is no doubt the franchise has some quality offensive players (Tkachuk, Barkov, Verhaeghe, & Reinhart) and the tandem of Bobrovsky & Knight should provide above average goaltending. Florida should be able to ride these things to a playoff berth, but there is a small chance they lose a tight & crowded wildcard race. Let's say a range of 5th to 9th in the Eastern Conference.
The Panthers only have 7 forwards, 2 defenseman, & 1 goalie signed beyond this season, so they will have lots of expiring contracts to consider moving at the deadline, including Reinhart and Forsling. However, I can't see the team being far enough from a wildcard spot at the deadline for this to be an issue for the GM.
Montreal Canadiens:
The CapFriendly page for the Montreal Canadiens is a confusing mess, containing pretty much everything that could happen to a franchise's cap situation. There is a $833,333 buyout hit from Karl Alzner, just over $4M in retained salary on Jeff Petry & Joel Edmundson, and goalie Carey Price's $10.5M on long-term injured reserve. The website adds to the uncertainty by having 14 forwards, 10 defensemen, and 3 goaltenders (four more than the allowed 23). The result of all that is the Canadiens are $4,727,916 over the cap's limit of $83.5M, yet they could shed another $3.5M by sending the lowest four players (3D/1G) to the minors. GM Kent Hughes could get within $500k of being cap compliant if they can find a taker for G Casey DeSmith's $1.8M salary and could probably get under the cap by sending higher paid waiver-exempt players down (D Harris, D Barron, & D Reinbacher) and keeping lower paid defenders such as Kovacevic, Wideman, & Xhekaj. If not, they always have Price's LTIR hit to fall back on.
Montreal wasn't really a player in free agency, but they did make a few trades to try and improve the squad. The first move they made was acquiring F Alex Newhook's 30 pts from Colorada, then the Habs got involved in a 3-way trade with Pittsburgh & San Jose that netted them D Jeff Petry and G DeSmith. Nine days later, Hughes flipped Petry to Detroit for D G Gustav Lindstrom (8 pts in 36 gms) for the Canadiens last transaction.
For a team coming off the 7th least amount of goals last season, they will be betting on improvement from their youth since Montreal only added Newhook to the forwards corp. With proven scorers Nick Suzuki & Cole Caufield leading the offense, the coaching staff will look for improvement from young high-end prospects such as Juraj Slafkozsky & Kirby Dach. The forward unit will be filled out with oft-injured players (Brendan Gallagher & Sean Monahan), veterans (Josh Anderson, Christian Dvorak, Joel Armia, & Jake Evans), and 23-25 yr olds (Michael Pezzetta, Rafael Harvey-Pinard, & Jesse Ylonen).
Coach St. Louis has 10 options to improve last year's 4th worst defense, including veterans like Michael Matheson, David Savard, & Chris Wideman. Mid-agers Johnathan Kovacevic & Lindstrom will vie for spots with a group of young prospects (Jordan Harris, David Reinbacher, Justin Barron, Kaiden Guhle, & Arber Xhekaj).
All three goaltending options for the Canadiens are coming off similar seasons, with Jake Allen putting up .891 save % over 42 games, Samuel Montembeault playing 40 games with a .901 save %, and acquired DeSmith amassing .905 save % in 38 Penguins' games. The plan was obviously to flip DeSmith and run with Allen & Montembeault in the crease, but who knows how it will play out with training camps just days away from starting.
Do the fledgling Habs finally take a big step forward in their rebuild in a very tough division & conference?
End Result:
What are the chances a team will qualify for the post-season a year removed from being the 5th worst team in the NHL? Don't bother pulling out your pencil & paper, I am fairly certain the answer is "pretty slim".
I could be wrong, but I don't see Newhook and DeSmith sparking that huge of a turn-around. Even if all the young players make big strides in their development, the Canadiens are going to be over-matched by every team in their division. Shockingly, the leads me to conclude that Montreal will not make the post-season and will finish dead-last in the Atlantic Division. My crystal ball seems to agree, predicting that the Habs will finish somewhere from 22nd and 29th in 2023-24 (the ball only cost $5, so it's not super specific...you get what you pay for, I guess).
It should be fun for people who like the Canadiens to watch the ongoing development of their youth, but they might not be able to add huge assets as sellers at the trade deadline with limited UFA options to sell (Monahan, DeSmith, Montebeault, & Wideman).
Ottawa Senators:
The Senators have over $5M in dead cap this season due to retained salary/buyouts, making their salary cap situation much harder to manage. CapFriendly has Ottawa with 11 forwards, 7 defensemen, & 2 goalies on their roster and only $895,953 left to sign players with. That matters, as they still have two unsigned RFAs in Shane Pinto (35 pts) & Egor Sokolov (2 pts in 5 NHL games). GM Pierre Dorion has his work cut out for him, but Pinto's qualifying offer is $874,125 and would give them at least 12 forwards if he ends up signing it.
The NHL team from our nation's capital ended up signing three free agents this off-season: G Joonas Korpisalo (.913% w/ Columbus & .921 w/ LA), F Zach MacEwen (10 pts), and F Vladimir Tarasenko (50 pts). The GM was forced to trade F Alex Debrincat and was able to get F Dominik Kubalik (45 pts), a prospect, and some picks in return. Most recently, the Senators locked up one of their young defenders (Jake Sanderson) with a long-term contract, giving him a $7.125M raise in 2024-25.
20th in goals against last season, Ottawa have pushed all their chips in on goalie Korpisalo for a big improvement in between the pipes. The newly acquired masked man had an above average to great season in 22-23, but the two previous years in Columbus were substandard (.877% & .894%) so there is no guarantee the gamble will work. The Sens back up will be Anton Forsberg, who dressed for 28 NHL games last year with a .902 save percentage.
The Senators' defensive core has an average age of 25.6 years and without any new bodies incoming, the franchise will be depending on growth from their youth in order to improve play in their own zone. The three key defenders for Ottawa are the previously mentioned Sanderson, along with Thomas Chabot & Jakob Chychrun. The coach can fill the blue line with players like Artem Zub, Erik Brannstrom, Travis Hamonic, & Jacob Bernard-Docker.
Ottawa's scorers finished 18th in goals for in 2022-23 and will be counting on newbies like Tarasenko and Kubalik to make up the loss of Debrincat's offense. Those two could be joined in the top 6 by point producers such as Tim Stutzle, Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux, & Drake Batherson. Mathieu Joseph, Mark Kastelic, Zach MacEwen, & Parker Kelly are signed to fill out the roster, leaving the unsigned Pinto & Sokolov as the final forwards in the mix.
The Sens have improved from 51 pts in 20-21, 73 pts in 21-22, and 86 pts last season.....can they keep that trajectory up and make the playoffs this year??
End Result:
The Senators added more offense than they lost this off-season and if they get the best version of Korpisalo, the franchise could legitimately challenge for one of those Eastern wildcard spots.
If is a bit difficult to project for Ottawa, since they haven't signed a key player yet and you have to wonder if more moves will occur before the puck drops on the regular season. The Sens were 5 or 6 points from a post-season spot in 22-23 and will have to fight with 5 or 6 teams for one this year.
While I like many of the Senators' components and think they could be significantly improved in 2023-24, I still end up with them missing the playoffs more often than not. Top end, I think they could finish as high as 6th in the East, but it's more likely they end up in the 10th to 12th range.
Should Ottawa be well out of a playoff spot by the trade deadline, they do have Tarasenko & Kubalik as upcoming UFAs to possibly move. My view is that they are another team that will be too close to contention to become sellers.
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Tampa's another NHL team that will be using long-term injured reserve to go beyond the $83.5M limit in 2023-24. Currently CapFriendly has the Lightning $7,748,333 above the cap, but with D Brent Seabrook's $6.875M contract on LTIR, management needs to shed $873,333 to avoid trouble from Gary Bettman & co. With 14 forwards, 8 defensemen, & 2 goalies on Tampa Bay's NHL roster, GM Julien BriseBois will probably have to send a forward & defender down to the minors to get under the cap (since the likely suspects all earn $800k or less).
A franchise used to being without cap space, the team had a typical off-season by re-signing a couple of their players (F Brandon Hagel & F Tanner Jeannot) and then dipping into the free agent bargain bin (F Connor Sheary, F Logan Brown, F Josh Archibald, D Calvin De Haan, F Luke Glendening, & G Jonas Johansson). Archibald's contract ended up being terminated on a mutually agreed basis, resulting in Tampa signing F Tyler Motte to replace him.
After finishing with the 8th best offense last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning have some solid top 9 options in Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Nicholas Paul, Jeannot, & Hagel. In addition to the five previously mentioned free agent forward signings, the Lightning have options in Mikey Eyssimont & Alex Barre-Boulet to pick from to round out the lineup.
Tampa Bay had the 14th best goals against last season and have added De Haan to seven returning defenders (Mikhail Sergachev, Victor Hedman, Erik Cernak, Nick Prebix, Zach Bogosian, Haydn Fleury, & Darren Raddysh). 26 yr old Phillipe Myers could also be in play, but his $1.4M contract might have to stay in the minors due to the cap situation.
The great Andrei Vasilevskiy will once get the vast majority of starts for the Bolts, although the Russian is coming off his lowest season save percentage (.915%) since 2015-16 (his 2nd NHL season). He will be backed up by free agent signing Johansson, who had a .932% in 3 NHL games with Colorado and a .920% in the AHL.
The Lightning saw a 12 pt drop in 2022-23 (98 pts) from 2021-22 (110 pts), will that pattern continue and put them in danger of missing the post-season?
End Result:
The Tampa Bay Lightnings' key players (Kucherov, Point, Hedman, Cirelli, Hagel, Vasilevskiy, & aging Stamkos) will be expected to continue their strong play, but the season may depend more on how much forwards like Jeannot & Paul contribute.
While Vasilevskiy's play was still well above average last season, you should probably expect the 29 yr old tender to return to elite form in 2023-24. Very much like the Bruins, I can see Tampa Bay failing to stick with the top two teams in the conference, but have a hard time putting them outside of the playoffs. Therefore, I will go with the exact same prediction and the Bolts will finish somewhere between 3rd and 7th in the East.
The Lightning probably won't be sellers at the trade deadline and that's probably a good thing as the only attractive upcoming UFA for playoff teams would be Tampa's captain, Steven Stamkos. Not sure if the team is ready to move on from their long-time fan favourite.
Toronto Maple Leafs:
We end with the Toronto Maple Leafs, another team that needs to make further maneuvers to avoid trouble from the NHL's cap police. CapFriendly has the Leafs at $13,256,450 over the cap's limit, spending a massive $96,756,450 on player salaries (including 14F/8 D/4G). However, D Jake Muzzin & G Matt Murray are once again destined for the LTIR giving Toronto the ability to go $10,312,500 over the upper limit. That leaves GM Brad Treliving with $2,943,950 left to shed and I'm not exactly sure how he will pull it off. Yes, the GM can lose G Jones' $875k by sending him to the minors and also save another $775k-$925k by shipping one of the fowards to the Marlies, but that doesn't quite get it done.
While TO lost Bunting's production this off-season, they did sign unrestricted free agents to improve the forward unit: F Max Domi (56 pts), F Tyler Bertuzzi (30 pts), F Ryan Reaves (15 pts), & F Dylan Gambrell (10 pts). Treliving tinkered with his defensive core by signing UFA John Klingberg (33 pts).
The talented trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, & William Nylander led the Maple Leafs to the 11th most goals scored in 22-23. They will be back this season to join usual teammates John Tavares, David Kampf, Calle Jarnkrok, & Pontus Holmberg. New signings Domi, Bertuzzi, Reaves, & Gambrell will fill out the roster with young prospects Matthew Knies & Nicholas Robertson. Toronto also have PTO Noah Gregor as another forward option.
Toronto finished 5th in GA in 2022-23 and are hoping to replicate that feat this season. Besides Klingberg, six returning defenders will be filling out the corps: Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Jake McCabe, Timothy Liljegren, Conor Timmins, & veteran Mark Giordano.
Management ended up having to go to arbitration to get it done, but they eventually inked starter Ilya Samsonov to a new contract after he put up a .919 save % in his first seaon in the blue & white. The Leafs have options for the back up role, with 25 yr old Joseph Woll coming off a .932 save % in 7 NHL games and 33 yr old Martin Jones (.887% in 48 games w/ SEA).
Don't think the playoffs should be in doubt for Toronto, but can their long-suffering fans hope for more from the team that just getting to the dance? Maybe the Leafs can build on winning their first playoff series since 2012-13.
End Result:
The Toronto Maple Leafs appear to be one of the powerhouse franchises in 2023-24 after adding toughness and scoring in Bertuzzi & Domi. The team will be hoping for Samsonov to continue his strong play, but even if he plays closer to the NHL average, the Maple Leafs should challenge for a top 4 finish in the Eastern Conference.
The franchise's defensive core still isn't that impressive, but there is enough talent & depth on the roster to ensure they are above average at keeping pucks out of their net.
I don't think I am going out on a limb by predicting that Toronto will end up winning the Atlantic Division this season. I might even go as far to say that the boys from TO will likely edge out the NJ Devils for the Eastern Conference title.
The Maple Leafs have a slew of upcoming UFAs that could be moved at the deadline, but I doubt we will see guys like Nylander, Domi, Bertuzzi, Brodie, Klingberg, Giordano, & Samsonov up for grabs.
