Just Give Me The Stats: Winnipeg Jets Defensemen
May 18, 2024 15:06:34 GMT -6
hillman, rickybobby, and 1 more like this
Post by bigoljetairliner on May 18, 2024 15:06:34 GMT -6
Hey all. Hope everyone is enjoying the weekend!!
Just finished a look at the stats for Winnipeg Jets' defensemen over at AIH and since the article relies too much on the 4 tables in it that I can't post here (correction: didn't know how to post...but now they are included in additional comments made later in the thread), will have to rely on providing a link for those who are interested in reading it.
www.arcticicehockey.com/just-give-me-the-stats-jets-defensemen/
Guess I can include the individual player write ups here, even though I sometimes reference one of the images in the article, it should still make enough sense without them.
Josh Morrissey:
Where to start with the Winnipeg Jets’ top defenseman? Probably when he’s at his best…with the puck on his stick. Morrissey had another strong offensive season in 2023-24 and finished with the following accolades: 8th highest scoring defenseman in NHL (69 pts), top 10 in NHL for assists by defensemen per 60 minutes (1.26), all situations (dmen) – 27th in Corsi (57%), 20th in Fenwick (58%), tied with Adam Fox & Quinn Hughes for 8th in actual goal percentage (66.7%), and 15th in expected goal percentage (58.8%).
Defensively, Josh is a sound defender and was the only defenseman on the team with a positive takeaway-giveaway differential, but it’s not like his play in the Jets’ end is without flaws (higher than wanted high danger scoring chances against). Also, he sometimes allows an oncoming forechecker to win the race to the puck, immediately putting Winnipeg on the defensive and killing any chance the Jets had at a clean zone exit. His 6′ frame makes it a bit harder to move opposing forwards from the front of the crease, but Morrissey always ended up winning the expected goals battle with all of his 5 defensive partners this season (the only defender to do that) so his defensive acumen is good enough to go against the NHL’s elite competition.
Overall: Yes, Josh Morrissey is certainly an elite #1 defenseman in the NHL offensively, but the shot/expected goal statistics would put him more in the elite #2 category. That being said, it is possible a slightly better playing partner would improve those stats and make the former 13th overall draft pick even more valuable to the franchise. The 29 yr old is just entering his prime years, so you have to hope that Chevy will be able to help him out by adding to Winnipeg’s blueline in the off-season.
Dylan DeMelo:
The Jets’ top right handed defenseman had a career season, putting up his highest point total (31 pts), a team best from the blueline in goal differential (+37), and the 2nd best plus/minus rating in entire NHL (+46). His steady play in Winnipeg’s end allowed his typical partner (Morrissey) to join the offense, though that -40 takeaway/giveaway rating possibly shows a sign of Dylan having difficulty with clean zone exit decisions.
DeMelo was one of the Jets better defensemen at limiting high danger looks this year despite typically facing the opposition’s toughest tests. He also had positive expected goal numbers with every partner besides the exception of very limited minutes along side Pionk.
Overall: Ideally, Dylan DeMelo would be Winnipeg’s 2nd right-hand defenseman next season, but the likelihood the Jets are able to find a top pairing RHD in the off-season is slim. Therefore, as I previously stated, Chevy definitely needs to get the 31 yr old defender to sign another contract and hope that it doesn’t top the $4.5M per year range, nor have more than 3 years but that may be wishful thinking. Unless the Jets can sign one of the key RHD unrestricted free agents (Brandon Montour or Brett Pesce), the franchise might have to bite the bullet on DeMelo’s ask if they hope to remain competitive in 2024-25.
Brenden Dillon:
The Winnipeg Jets most physical player on their roster this season, the rugged defender easily led the team in penalty minutes (92) but there is a down-side to that. While our franchise had no defenseman with more penalties drawn than taken, Dillon had a team-worst 39 minute differential (Morrissey led the team with a 2 minute differential, while Pionk was a distant second-worst at 20 more PIM taken). Though that is to be expected with the way Brenden plays, as is displayed by the Vancouver Canucks’ Nikita Zadorov’s 52 more penalty minutes taken than drawn rating this season.
Overall, the 33 yr old’s advanced stats were not very good this year….but you have to wonder how much of that is a result of his most frequent playing partner? While the 6’4″ left-hander only played 286 minutes at 5 on 5 with other Jets’ defenders, Dillon’s expected goal ratings were 50% or better with all of them so that very much could be the case. The Canadian defenseman also had a decent high danger scoring chances against rating (tied with DeMelo), despite typically facing top six talent consistently.
Overall: While it certainly sounded like Brenden Dillon wanted to re-sign with Winnipeg, the media reports are painting a picture of that being unlikely. Chevy did say that the team was open to having discussions with the veteran’s agent, so the door for his return isn’t closed but it seems he may be able to reach free agency to at least hear what other options are out there for him. I know many fans are frustrated by the possibility of the Jets letting one of the few players who knows how to play with the grit needed to succeed in the post-season. I am too, but I also can see that upgrading the 2 LHD spot may be the easiest way to improve the teams’ defense next year. Just as there is a dearth of good right handed defenders, there is typically a bounty of lefties to pick from which makes it easier to acquire one with elite or near-elite skills (i.e. the Sens’ Jakob Chychrun). While a move like that wouldn’t be as impactful as addressing the player I will discuss below, it would certainly up the talent level on Winnipeg’s back end. At this point, salary cap space may be driving Chevy’s strategy with Dillon at this point, however some moves on the draft floor to free up cap space could allow him to circle back before the defender hits unrestricted free agency status on July 1st.
Neal Pionk:
A lightning rod for fan criticism, the 28 yr old Minnesotan put up decent basic statistics with 33 pts, a +9 plus/minus rating, and a +6 actual goal differential this season. However, the advanced stats are a lot more unkind, putting Pionk near the bottom of every category (two last place finishes in xG% & xG Diff, two 7th place finishes in Fenwick & actual G Diff, two 6th place finishes in Corsi & takeaway/giveaway differential, and one 5th place finish in high danger scoring chances allowed).
With his main partner (Dillon) at his side, Neal was able to win the actual goal differential at even strength (52.1%) but the expected goal numbers were below average (46.7%). With four other players beside the right-handed American over the season, only Morrissey (51.1%) and Samberg (58.8%) were able to put up positive xG percentages in 2023-24.
Overall: We all had high hopes for Neal Pionk after he put up 45 pts in 71 games in his first season in the Peg, but his play since then has shown signs of regression. While he only ended with a negative plus/minus rating in one season with Winnipeg (last year), the fact that so many defensemen struggled statistically with Pionk at their side clearly makes him the weakest link on the Jets’ backend. With only 1 yr left on his current deal, the off-season seems like a perfect time to move on and try to find a better solution for the 2nd RHD spot. In my humble opinion, it’s the best route for the Jets to improve but it may be difficult to nab the right player via free agency or trade. One can dream though…the team might as well try something as I am not sure Pionk is best suited for 2nd pairing minutes.
Dylan Samberg:
With mainly sheltered 3rd pairing minutes over the season, the 25 yr old defenseman finished in the top three in 5 out of 7 of the advanced stats in the 2nd chart (5th in xG% and xG Diff). Samberg doubled his previous career-high point total (18), but he will never be much of an offensive threat so has to make the most of his defensive & penalty killing skills. The American was tied for 3rd in blocked shots on the Jets this season (111), despite playing 6 minutes less per game than the leader (DeMelo’s 139). The former 2nd rounder took more penalties than he drew, but his number was equal to Stanley’s despite playing 874 more minutes.
Samberg ended up with 60%+ of actual goals at 5 on 5 for Winnipeg and the final table shows us that he played well with 5 out of 7 partners in the regular season. He had troubles playing on his off-hand when paired with Big Stan (39.8% xG) and never found his game with newly acquired Colin Miller in the handful of games they were a pair (41.4% xG). My biggest complaint about Sammie’s game this season was the lack of physical play and that is a feeling the stats have supported since he had 26 less hits when compared to last year, despite playing 15 more games in the past season. Not sure if the 6’3″ lefty was banged up or not, but he has to use his big frame better to intimidate opposing players.
Overall: I still have hopes that Dylan Samberg can be a solid #2 LHD at the NHL level if he is paired with the right partner, even though he did struggle quite a bit in the playoffs this year. Heck, he had the best xG% when paired with the apparent anchor Pionk during the regular season (58.8% in 151 mins), so imagine what he could do with Pesce or Montour? I mentioned the need to up his physical game previously and that will be doubly important if Dillon is not retained. There is no doubt that Samberg can function as an above average 3rd pairing guy, but I’m sure the team is hoping he can take a bigger step in the upcoming season.
Nate Schmidt:
I will admit that the 32 yr old’s advanced stats surprised me a bit when I finally finished tabulating everything. I do recall that early on in the season, the pairing with Samberg was extremely efficient at out-scoring opponents but even so to see that Schmidt had positive xG numbers with 5 out of 6 partners caught me off-guard. Nate finished with the best Fenwick, best xG%, and the least number of high danger scoring chances against per 60 mins (1.60).
Despite the good possession numbers, the offense wasn’t there for the American defender this year as he put up his 2nd lowest point total of his career (14). Another negative about the lefty who plays the right side is the fact that he is not really an option on the penalty kill for Winnipeg, putting extra strain on the top two pairings’ stamina limits and that is not really ideal.
Overall: If it wasn’t for his $5.95M per year salary, Nate Schmidt might be a pretty solid 3rd pairing option, especially when you consider his ability to play both sides of the ice. His ability to put up solid xG% numbers with both Samberg & Stanley is valuable, but not irreplaceable. The same can be said for his positive attitude on the bench & in the dressing room, because the tight cap space situation Chevy faces this summer may make keeping a highly paid bottom pairing guy too costly for the Jets to consider.
Colin Miller:
There wasn’t much data available for Miller with the Winnipeg Jets, so I had to use his New Jersey Devils’ stats for some of the tables. When you look at how he performed overall this season, the 31 yr old defenseman ends up near the top of the team in a lot of categories. However, when you focus on how he did with a Jets’ jersey on his back, the numbers are down-right ugly (less than 50% xG with both Samberg & Stanley). His 12.5 xG% in 12.5 minutes playing with Big Stan was particularly horrific, but only getting into a handful of regular season games didn’t allow the right hander to gain any familiarity with his teammates.
Things changed in his one post-season game however, as the 6’1″ RHD didn’t allow a high or medium danger shot attempt against while playing on the 3rd pairing, drew an Avalanche penalty, picked up an assist, and had 4 hits in the game (tied for highest per game average with Dillon & DeMelo).
Overall: I have no idea if Colin Miller would be open to re-signing in the Peg and am totally on the fence about whether Chevy should even try. The defender doesn’t appear to really be a full-time NHLer, as he has only played more than 60 games in 4 of his 9 NHL seasons (1 in past 5 years). He definitely has potential as a depth defender who may be able to up his game come playoff time, but once again salary cap space may prevent Winnipeg from winning his services (even if he should only cost around $1.8-$2M/yr).
Logan Stanley:
And we end things with the 6’7″ giant, who is in his 4th NHL season with the Winnipeg Jets since being drafted 18th overall in 2016. Stanley was far from a regular this season (25 games), but did manage to suit up a bit more often than last season (19). The large lefty’s advanced stats are not very good, with Logan not finishing higher than 6th in any of the 2nd table’s seven categories. While the 25 yr old ended up being on the ice for 59.1% of goals scored at even strength, his expected numbers were much lower (2nd worst on the team at 47.9%).
With 45 hits in 25 games, Big Stan wasn’t in the realm of Winnipeg’s most frequent hitters (Dillon’s 241/Pionk’s 221), but he did use the body as consistently as players like DeMelo & Miller did this season. Stanley did end up with more PIMs this season (36 from 21 mins), but he also did a much better job at drawing penalties (22 from 9 mins). Another positive about the Ontario native is his ability to put the puck on the net, as his average of approximately 3 shots per game is good for a 3rd pairing player. That number was hindered a bit by 24 blocked shot attempts, which was a pity since Logan seemed to create more rebounds with his shots than expected.
Overall: Still a restricted free agent for one more season, Chevy doesn’t really have to make a huge decision on Logan Stanley this summer. Offer him a qualifying offer and you are pretty much guaranteed to get a depth defenseman at a cost around $1.1 to $1.2M for one season. The GM can still move him later in the off-season if the opportunity arises or completely bury his salary in the minors if he doesn’t crack Winnipeg’s top 7 defenders in 2024-25. But an argument could definitely be made that there hasn’t been enough signs that Stanley is “getting it” and it’s time to move on from one of the Jets’ rare whiffs in the 1st round of drafts.
Just finished a look at the stats for Winnipeg Jets' defensemen over at AIH and since the article relies too much on the 4 tables in it that I can't post here (correction: didn't know how to post...but now they are included in additional comments made later in the thread), will have to rely on providing a link for those who are interested in reading it.
www.arcticicehockey.com/just-give-me-the-stats-jets-defensemen/
Guess I can include the individual player write ups here, even though I sometimes reference one of the images in the article, it should still make enough sense without them.
Josh Morrissey:
Where to start with the Winnipeg Jets’ top defenseman? Probably when he’s at his best…with the puck on his stick. Morrissey had another strong offensive season in 2023-24 and finished with the following accolades: 8th highest scoring defenseman in NHL (69 pts), top 10 in NHL for assists by defensemen per 60 minutes (1.26), all situations (dmen) – 27th in Corsi (57%), 20th in Fenwick (58%), tied with Adam Fox & Quinn Hughes for 8th in actual goal percentage (66.7%), and 15th in expected goal percentage (58.8%).
Defensively, Josh is a sound defender and was the only defenseman on the team with a positive takeaway-giveaway differential, but it’s not like his play in the Jets’ end is without flaws (higher than wanted high danger scoring chances against). Also, he sometimes allows an oncoming forechecker to win the race to the puck, immediately putting Winnipeg on the defensive and killing any chance the Jets had at a clean zone exit. His 6′ frame makes it a bit harder to move opposing forwards from the front of the crease, but Morrissey always ended up winning the expected goals battle with all of his 5 defensive partners this season (the only defender to do that) so his defensive acumen is good enough to go against the NHL’s elite competition.
Overall: Yes, Josh Morrissey is certainly an elite #1 defenseman in the NHL offensively, but the shot/expected goal statistics would put him more in the elite #2 category. That being said, it is possible a slightly better playing partner would improve those stats and make the former 13th overall draft pick even more valuable to the franchise. The 29 yr old is just entering his prime years, so you have to hope that Chevy will be able to help him out by adding to Winnipeg’s blueline in the off-season.
Dylan DeMelo:
The Jets’ top right handed defenseman had a career season, putting up his highest point total (31 pts), a team best from the blueline in goal differential (+37), and the 2nd best plus/minus rating in entire NHL (+46). His steady play in Winnipeg’s end allowed his typical partner (Morrissey) to join the offense, though that -40 takeaway/giveaway rating possibly shows a sign of Dylan having difficulty with clean zone exit decisions.
DeMelo was one of the Jets better defensemen at limiting high danger looks this year despite typically facing the opposition’s toughest tests. He also had positive expected goal numbers with every partner besides the exception of very limited minutes along side Pionk.
Overall: Ideally, Dylan DeMelo would be Winnipeg’s 2nd right-hand defenseman next season, but the likelihood the Jets are able to find a top pairing RHD in the off-season is slim. Therefore, as I previously stated, Chevy definitely needs to get the 31 yr old defender to sign another contract and hope that it doesn’t top the $4.5M per year range, nor have more than 3 years but that may be wishful thinking. Unless the Jets can sign one of the key RHD unrestricted free agents (Brandon Montour or Brett Pesce), the franchise might have to bite the bullet on DeMelo’s ask if they hope to remain competitive in 2024-25.
Brenden Dillon:
The Winnipeg Jets most physical player on their roster this season, the rugged defender easily led the team in penalty minutes (92) but there is a down-side to that. While our franchise had no defenseman with more penalties drawn than taken, Dillon had a team-worst 39 minute differential (Morrissey led the team with a 2 minute differential, while Pionk was a distant second-worst at 20 more PIM taken). Though that is to be expected with the way Brenden plays, as is displayed by the Vancouver Canucks’ Nikita Zadorov’s 52 more penalty minutes taken than drawn rating this season.
Overall, the 33 yr old’s advanced stats were not very good this year….but you have to wonder how much of that is a result of his most frequent playing partner? While the 6’4″ left-hander only played 286 minutes at 5 on 5 with other Jets’ defenders, Dillon’s expected goal ratings were 50% or better with all of them so that very much could be the case. The Canadian defenseman also had a decent high danger scoring chances against rating (tied with DeMelo), despite typically facing top six talent consistently.
Overall: While it certainly sounded like Brenden Dillon wanted to re-sign with Winnipeg, the media reports are painting a picture of that being unlikely. Chevy did say that the team was open to having discussions with the veteran’s agent, so the door for his return isn’t closed but it seems he may be able to reach free agency to at least hear what other options are out there for him. I know many fans are frustrated by the possibility of the Jets letting one of the few players who knows how to play with the grit needed to succeed in the post-season. I am too, but I also can see that upgrading the 2 LHD spot may be the easiest way to improve the teams’ defense next year. Just as there is a dearth of good right handed defenders, there is typically a bounty of lefties to pick from which makes it easier to acquire one with elite or near-elite skills (i.e. the Sens’ Jakob Chychrun). While a move like that wouldn’t be as impactful as addressing the player I will discuss below, it would certainly up the talent level on Winnipeg’s back end. At this point, salary cap space may be driving Chevy’s strategy with Dillon at this point, however some moves on the draft floor to free up cap space could allow him to circle back before the defender hits unrestricted free agency status on July 1st.
Neal Pionk:
A lightning rod for fan criticism, the 28 yr old Minnesotan put up decent basic statistics with 33 pts, a +9 plus/minus rating, and a +6 actual goal differential this season. However, the advanced stats are a lot more unkind, putting Pionk near the bottom of every category (two last place finishes in xG% & xG Diff, two 7th place finishes in Fenwick & actual G Diff, two 6th place finishes in Corsi & takeaway/giveaway differential, and one 5th place finish in high danger scoring chances allowed).
With his main partner (Dillon) at his side, Neal was able to win the actual goal differential at even strength (52.1%) but the expected goal numbers were below average (46.7%). With four other players beside the right-handed American over the season, only Morrissey (51.1%) and Samberg (58.8%) were able to put up positive xG percentages in 2023-24.
Overall: We all had high hopes for Neal Pionk after he put up 45 pts in 71 games in his first season in the Peg, but his play since then has shown signs of regression. While he only ended with a negative plus/minus rating in one season with Winnipeg (last year), the fact that so many defensemen struggled statistically with Pionk at their side clearly makes him the weakest link on the Jets’ backend. With only 1 yr left on his current deal, the off-season seems like a perfect time to move on and try to find a better solution for the 2nd RHD spot. In my humble opinion, it’s the best route for the Jets to improve but it may be difficult to nab the right player via free agency or trade. One can dream though…the team might as well try something as I am not sure Pionk is best suited for 2nd pairing minutes.
Dylan Samberg:
With mainly sheltered 3rd pairing minutes over the season, the 25 yr old defenseman finished in the top three in 5 out of 7 of the advanced stats in the 2nd chart (5th in xG% and xG Diff). Samberg doubled his previous career-high point total (18), but he will never be much of an offensive threat so has to make the most of his defensive & penalty killing skills. The American was tied for 3rd in blocked shots on the Jets this season (111), despite playing 6 minutes less per game than the leader (DeMelo’s 139). The former 2nd rounder took more penalties than he drew, but his number was equal to Stanley’s despite playing 874 more minutes.
Samberg ended up with 60%+ of actual goals at 5 on 5 for Winnipeg and the final table shows us that he played well with 5 out of 7 partners in the regular season. He had troubles playing on his off-hand when paired with Big Stan (39.8% xG) and never found his game with newly acquired Colin Miller in the handful of games they were a pair (41.4% xG). My biggest complaint about Sammie’s game this season was the lack of physical play and that is a feeling the stats have supported since he had 26 less hits when compared to last year, despite playing 15 more games in the past season. Not sure if the 6’3″ lefty was banged up or not, but he has to use his big frame better to intimidate opposing players.
Overall: I still have hopes that Dylan Samberg can be a solid #2 LHD at the NHL level if he is paired with the right partner, even though he did struggle quite a bit in the playoffs this year. Heck, he had the best xG% when paired with the apparent anchor Pionk during the regular season (58.8% in 151 mins), so imagine what he could do with Pesce or Montour? I mentioned the need to up his physical game previously and that will be doubly important if Dillon is not retained. There is no doubt that Samberg can function as an above average 3rd pairing guy, but I’m sure the team is hoping he can take a bigger step in the upcoming season.
Nate Schmidt:
I will admit that the 32 yr old’s advanced stats surprised me a bit when I finally finished tabulating everything. I do recall that early on in the season, the pairing with Samberg was extremely efficient at out-scoring opponents but even so to see that Schmidt had positive xG numbers with 5 out of 6 partners caught me off-guard. Nate finished with the best Fenwick, best xG%, and the least number of high danger scoring chances against per 60 mins (1.60).
Despite the good possession numbers, the offense wasn’t there for the American defender this year as he put up his 2nd lowest point total of his career (14). Another negative about the lefty who plays the right side is the fact that he is not really an option on the penalty kill for Winnipeg, putting extra strain on the top two pairings’ stamina limits and that is not really ideal.
Overall: If it wasn’t for his $5.95M per year salary, Nate Schmidt might be a pretty solid 3rd pairing option, especially when you consider his ability to play both sides of the ice. His ability to put up solid xG% numbers with both Samberg & Stanley is valuable, but not irreplaceable. The same can be said for his positive attitude on the bench & in the dressing room, because the tight cap space situation Chevy faces this summer may make keeping a highly paid bottom pairing guy too costly for the Jets to consider.
Colin Miller:
There wasn’t much data available for Miller with the Winnipeg Jets, so I had to use his New Jersey Devils’ stats for some of the tables. When you look at how he performed overall this season, the 31 yr old defenseman ends up near the top of the team in a lot of categories. However, when you focus on how he did with a Jets’ jersey on his back, the numbers are down-right ugly (less than 50% xG with both Samberg & Stanley). His 12.5 xG% in 12.5 minutes playing with Big Stan was particularly horrific, but only getting into a handful of regular season games didn’t allow the right hander to gain any familiarity with his teammates.
Things changed in his one post-season game however, as the 6’1″ RHD didn’t allow a high or medium danger shot attempt against while playing on the 3rd pairing, drew an Avalanche penalty, picked up an assist, and had 4 hits in the game (tied for highest per game average with Dillon & DeMelo).
Overall: I have no idea if Colin Miller would be open to re-signing in the Peg and am totally on the fence about whether Chevy should even try. The defender doesn’t appear to really be a full-time NHLer, as he has only played more than 60 games in 4 of his 9 NHL seasons (1 in past 5 years). He definitely has potential as a depth defender who may be able to up his game come playoff time, but once again salary cap space may prevent Winnipeg from winning his services (even if he should only cost around $1.8-$2M/yr).
Logan Stanley:
And we end things with the 6’7″ giant, who is in his 4th NHL season with the Winnipeg Jets since being drafted 18th overall in 2016. Stanley was far from a regular this season (25 games), but did manage to suit up a bit more often than last season (19). The large lefty’s advanced stats are not very good, with Logan not finishing higher than 6th in any of the 2nd table’s seven categories. While the 25 yr old ended up being on the ice for 59.1% of goals scored at even strength, his expected numbers were much lower (2nd worst on the team at 47.9%).
With 45 hits in 25 games, Big Stan wasn’t in the realm of Winnipeg’s most frequent hitters (Dillon’s 241/Pionk’s 221), but he did use the body as consistently as players like DeMelo & Miller did this season. Stanley did end up with more PIMs this season (36 from 21 mins), but he also did a much better job at drawing penalties (22 from 9 mins). Another positive about the Ontario native is his ability to put the puck on the net, as his average of approximately 3 shots per game is good for a 3rd pairing player. That number was hindered a bit by 24 blocked shot attempts, which was a pity since Logan seemed to create more rebounds with his shots than expected.
Overall: Still a restricted free agent for one more season, Chevy doesn’t really have to make a huge decision on Logan Stanley this summer. Offer him a qualifying offer and you are pretty much guaranteed to get a depth defenseman at a cost around $1.1 to $1.2M for one season. The GM can still move him later in the off-season if the opportunity arises or completely bury his salary in the minors if he doesn’t crack Winnipeg’s top 7 defenders in 2024-25. But an argument could definitely be made that there hasn’t been enough signs that Stanley is “getting it” and it’s time to move on from one of the Jets’ rare whiffs in the 1st round of drafts.
