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Post by mikecubs on Jun 26, 2012 3:03:19 GMT -6
I actually think an MLB team in Vancouver could potentially work. Seattle loves playing the Jays at home because the Jays bring tons of paying fans from Vancouver. Back around the time the Jays won the championship two years in a row they played an exhibition game (might have been more than one, I dunno) against the Mariners in Vancouver. It drew a huge crowd. If the Rays were to move to a Canadian city, I'm positive it would be in Vancouver before Montreal. Anybody that followed the Expos knew that barring some exceptions, attendance there was god awful. The team was abysmal and they got absolutely screwed over in the short season of 94. I don't know if people would take kindly to the MLB again. If the Rays were to move to a Canadian city though, it would give me even more reason to love them. No way could it work. Way way too small. Baseball is a big city sport. The demographics are not there. A couple series against the Jays in Seattle or an exhibition game doesn't mean it would work full time. 81 home games year after year is a lot different than a handful of games. It's a moot point anyway. After spending that much on BC Place they are Not going to blow another 600 million bucks on something as shakey as MLB in Vancouver. I really think the NHL would have a better chance of working in Atlanta or Phoenix than MLB in Vancouver. Overall I'm almost certain neither city gets MLB but I'm 100% certain they'd give Montreal another shot over Vancouver just due to the demographics and history of having the sport for 36 years. There is a small argument that maybe it could work at a weak level. Olympic Stadium was probably the worst or one of the top 5 worst stadiums in sports history. Expos fans never had the chance to go to a real park. Olympic stadium was located a zillion miles away from downtown. If Montreal could totally forget what happened from 94 on and had a downtown park you could make a case that Montreal could be another Pittsburgh or Kansas City (ie. a small market that is not great but can make a profit and survive)
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Post by Tim on Jun 26, 2012 5:44:59 GMT -6
I could see another MLB team working in either Van or MTL what do u guys think? No, until they implement a salary cap in that league I can't see it coming to Canada. Hard to sell tickets to fans when you know before the season starts that you just don't stand a chance of being the champs.
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Post by Tim on Jun 26, 2012 5:54:05 GMT -6
As far as other sports go I think within 10-15 years the NBA goes back to Vancouver. David Stern has called Vancouver his "biggest regret" as commissioner. Vancouver probably isn't big enough for the NBA yet only 2.3 million people. The smallest NBA/NHL market is Denver at 3.15 million. In 10-15 years given present growth rates Vancouver will be about the size Denver currently is. Vancouver has an NBA ready arena so the only thing missing is some more population growth and perhaps interest in the NBA. That's why I think the return of the Grizzlies will happen some day but not soon. Currently there are NOT a lot of struggling teams in the NBA right now. The new CBA is very owner friendly. The only ones that qualify are Sacramento and Milwaukee due to bad arenas and Memphis(they were just sold). New Orleans would also qualify as a struggling team but the state gave them a subsidy to stay until 2024 so they don't count. The next team that does move is going to Seattle. For baseball again there are NOT many struggling teams. MLB attendance is booming and local TV deals are exploding. Even for small and mid markets. Check out Seattle and San Diego's new TV deals. The Washington Nationals TV deal is about to triple. Even teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City make money. Baseball has been the most stable sport by far in terms of franchise movement. Since 1972 there has been only 1 relocation. That's right 1 relocation for a sport without a salary cap. That is a great record! The only teams in trouble are Oakland(due to a bad stadium and the San Francisco Giants blocking a move to San Jose) and Tampa Bay(bad stadium and questionable interest anyway). Baseball is out of markets to move to due to expansion of the 90's. If Tampa or Oakland did have to move and Montreal was interested the would be 0 US competition for them. Portland, San Antonio and Vegas would be the leading "contenders" in the US. However a return of MLB to Montreal is unlikely. Montreal hardly drew well even before the 94 strike. The attendance fall off didn't begin after 94 like many think but it started in 1984. I know Olympic Stadium was horrific but even with a nice new retro park downtown could a Montreal team draw? Especially since it would still be a small market team that would lose popular players to the Yankees/red sox etc. Another problem is I can't see a 500M dollar new stadium passing. Being a small market team the city and province would have to pay for most of the stadium. Small market teams do NOT privately fund their own stadiums in MLB. The team couldn't afford it. Given how ugly it ended for the Expos 1.0 and how little people cared at the end if they announced they are giving away 500M to MLB I think there would be blood in the streets. Overall I don't see Montreal as very likely. Baseball was never that popular to begin with even pre 94 in Montreal except for 5 years in the early 80s. With the way it ended the last 7 years, the strike etc... I think the market is too scorched to ever try again. I think the average Montrealer not only doesn't care much for baseball but absolutely hates baseball with a passion. I don't think MLB wants to return either. One reason you can't rule out Montreal 100% is because 3.8 million people is more than enough to support a team demographically. There were rumors last summer of a group being interested in returning MLB but there has been nothing since. If the government did want to go through with a new stadium and there was an owner and league interest I would require a ticket drive making stadium construction contingent on having enough interest. I wouldn't build a stadium for 500M on the "build it and they will come" philosophy. That's how mistakes like Glendale get made. For sure MLB will never go to Vancouver. Vancouver would be the 3rd smallest market in a sport without a cap. MLB would reject BC Place. MLB likes retro parks not multipurpose stadiums. Vancouver just spent 500 M??? on that new roof for BC place so they are not going to fund a new MLB park. Another problem is a new park in the Pacific Northwest would require a retractable roof like Safeco Field in Seattle. That would add another 200M to the cost of a stadium. For NBA to Montreal I'd love to see it, they have everything needed(the arena/no need for a public handout, the demographics) but I'm sure there is little interest unfortunately. If there ever was the interest David Stern would put a team in Montreal faster than you can snap your fingers. Overall my likelyhood on teams moving is 1.Vancouver(nba)- good odds 10-15 years 2.Toronto(NFL) so-so odds for a team in 10 years 3.Montreal(MLB)- Long shot 4.Montreal(NBA)- almost no shot but that could change if interest was shown to a slam dunk 5.Vancouver(MLB)- Not a chance in hell Population means nothing!Example, " Hockey VS Phoenix"A Pro Sports Team will never grow in a market were it is not played as a child!
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Post by jetsorbust on Jun 26, 2012 6:53:36 GMT -6
I could see another MLB team working in either Van or MTL what do u guys think? No, until they implement a salary cap in that league I can't see it coming to Canada. Hard to sell tickets to fans when you know before the season starts that you just don't stand a chance of being the champs. BING BING BING! We have a winner! Baseball is run by idiots. I used to be a huge Jays fan, watching literally at least 100 games a year on TV when I was a kid. Now I'll watch maybe a half hour of a handful of games. It's just impossible to get into it when you know there's 140 games left to go and your team won't even make the playoffs. Parity makes the whole league better, I don't understand how the MLB doesn't see that.
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Post by mikecubs on Jun 26, 2012 7:55:12 GMT -6
As far as other sports go I think within 10-15 years the NBA goes back to Vancouver. David Stern has called Vancouver his "biggest regret" as commissioner. Vancouver probably isn't big enough for the NBA yet only 2.3 million people. The smallest NBA/NHL market is Denver at 3.15 million. In 10-15 years given present growth rates Vancouver will be about the size Denver currently is. Vancouver has an NBA ready arena so the only thing missing is some more population growth and perhaps interest in the NBA. That's why I think the return of the Grizzlies will happen some day but not soon. Currently there are NOT a lot of struggling teams in the NBA right now. The new CBA is very owner friendly. The only ones that qualify are Sacramento and Milwaukee due to bad arenas and Memphis(they were just sold). New Orleans would also qualify as a struggling team but the state gave them a subsidy to stay until 2024 so they don't count. The next team that does move is going to Seattle. For baseball again there are NOT many struggling teams. MLB attendance is booming and local TV deals are exploding. Even for small and mid markets. Check out Seattle and San Diego's new TV deals. The Washington Nationals TV deal is about to triple. Even teams like Pittsburgh and Kansas City make money. Baseball has been the most stable sport by far in terms of franchise movement. Since 1972 there has been only 1 relocation. That's right 1 relocation for a sport without a salary cap. That is a great record! The only teams in trouble are Oakland(due to a bad stadium and the San Francisco Giants blocking a move to San Jose) and Tampa Bay(bad stadium and questionable interest anyway). Baseball is out of markets to move to due to expansion of the 90's. If Tampa or Oakland did have to move and Montreal was interested the would be 0 US competition for them. Portland, San Antonio and Vegas would be the leading "contenders" in the US. However a return of MLB to Montreal is unlikely. Montreal hardly drew well even before the 94 strike. The attendance fall off didn't begin after 94 like many think but it started in 1984. I know Olympic Stadium was horrific but even with a nice new retro park downtown could a Montreal team draw? Especially since it would still be a small market team that would lose popular players to the Yankees/red sox etc. Another problem is I can't see a 500M dollar new stadium passing. Being a small market team the city and province would have to pay for most of the stadium. Small market teams do NOT privately fund their own stadiums in MLB. The team couldn't afford it. Given how ugly it ended for the Expos 1.0 and how little people cared at the end if they announced they are giving away 500M to MLB I think there would be blood in the streets. Overall I don't see Montreal as very likely. Baseball was never that popular to begin with even pre 94 in Montreal except for 5 years in the early 80s. With the way it ended the last 7 years, the strike etc... I think the market is too scorched to ever try again. I think the average Montrealer not only doesn't care much for baseball but absolutely hates baseball with a passion. I don't think MLB wants to return either. One reason you can't rule out Montreal 100% is because 3.8 million people is more than enough to support a team demographically. There were rumors last summer of a group being interested in returning MLB but there has been nothing since. If the government did want to go through with a new stadium and there was an owner and league interest I would require a ticket drive making stadium construction contingent on having enough interest. I wouldn't build a stadium for 500M on the "build it and they will come" philosophy. That's how mistakes like Glendale get made. For sure MLB will never go to Vancouver. Vancouver would be the 3rd smallest market in a sport without a cap. MLB would reject BC Place. MLB likes retro parks not multipurpose stadiums. Vancouver just spent 500 M??? on that new roof for BC place so they are not going to fund a new MLB park. Another problem is a new park in the Pacific Northwest would require a retractable roof like Safeco Field in Seattle. That would add another 200M to the cost of a stadium. For NBA to Montreal I'd love to see it, they have everything needed(the arena/no need for a public handout, the demographics) but I'm sure there is little interest unfortunately. If there ever was the interest David Stern would put a team in Montreal faster than you can snap your fingers. Overall my likelyhood on teams moving is 1.Vancouver(nba)- good odds 10-15 years 2.Toronto(NFL) so-so odds for a team in 10 years 3.Montreal(MLB)- Long shot 4.Montreal(NBA)- almost no shot but that could change if interest was shown to a slam dunk 5.Vancouver(MLB)- Not a chance in hell Population means nothing!Example, " Hockey VS Phoenix"A Pro Sports Team will never grow in a market were it is not played as a child! Population means nothing for the NHL(because small Canadien cities rule and the mostly failed sun belt experiment). It does in baseball or when a city is trying to support both the NBA and NHL(only so much disposable $ to go around). Don't confuse the business of hockey and baseball. They are completely 100% different. This is a mistake a lot of the naysayers on the old Jets owner board made with regards to the NHL. They only knew about baseball(big cities rule) so they couldn't comprehend a city like Winnipeg could do well in the NHL. MLB is not like that. For example name me one elite team that is bottom 10 in population(excluding St. Louis) for MLB. Name one comparison in MLB of a big city like Phoenix totally failing in MLB(exluding Oakland due to the Coliseum sucking). Take the teams payroll list or forbes franchise value list. Compare that to the city sizes. The big population cities rule. There isn't an equivalent of a Winnipeg, Ottawa, Edmonton or Calgary in MLB. The only real exception to the rule for a smaller market population wise being close to elite is St. Louis. Other than that they kind of follow in order or close to the same order as the population chart.
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Post by mikecubs on Jun 26, 2012 8:09:47 GMT -6
No, until they implement a salary cap in that league I can't see it coming to Canada. Hard to sell tickets to fans when you know before the season starts that you just don't stand a chance of being the champs. BING BING BING! We have a winner! Baseball is run by idiots. I used to be a huge Jays fan, watching literally at least 100 games a year on TV when I was a kid. Now I'll watch maybe a half hour of a handful of games. It's just impossible to get into it when you know there's 140 games left to go and your team won't even make the playoffs. Parity makes the whole league better, I don't understand how the MLB doesn't see that. There is parity in baseball. Look at how bunched up the standing are. Look at how many different world series winners there have been the past decade. The deeply troubled Tampa Bay Rays(the closest thing MLB has to the Coyotes) have made the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years in the brutal AL east with the Yankees and Bo Sox!!! If they can do it Toronto has no excuse. Anyone can win it's just that the small markets have to trade some players away when they become too expensive and rebuild more often than big market teams but they can win. Small market fans just can't get attached to certain players. They come and go. And you really can't blame MLB for not having a cap. They tried in 94 and lost. It's not like they never thought about it. The MLB players union is a much different beast than any other players union. To break the union they would have to shut the game down for years. MLB is making too much money to do that. This year MLB expects to make 7.2-7.4 billion dollars. They make break the attendance record even. www.ballparkdigest.com/201206255094/major-league-baseball/news/mlb-attendance-could-hit-80m-this-season
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Post by jetsorbust on Jun 26, 2012 8:46:59 GMT -6
BING BING BING! We have a winner! Baseball is run by idiots. I used to be a huge Jays fan, watching literally at least 100 games a year on TV when I was a kid. Now I'll watch maybe a half hour of a handful of games. It's just impossible to get into it when you know there's 140 games left to go and your team won't even make the playoffs. Parity makes the whole league better, I don't understand how the MLB doesn't see that. There is parity in baseball. Look at how bunched up the standing are. Look at how many different world series winners there have been the past decade. The deeply troubled Tampa Bay Rays(the closest thing MLB has to the Coyotes) have made the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years in the brutal AL east with the Yankees and Bo Sox!!! If they can do it Toronto has no excuse. Anyone can win it's just that the small markets have to trade some players away when they become too expensive and rebuild more often than big market teams but they can win. Small market fans just can't get attached to certain players. They come and go. And you really can't blame MLB for not having a cap. They tried in 94 and lost. It's not like they never thought about it. The MLB players union is a much different beast than any other players union. To break the union they would have to shut the game down for years. MLB is making too much money to do that. This year MLB expects to make 7.2-7.4 billion dollars. They make break the attendance record even. www.ballparkdigest.com/201206255094/major-league-baseball/news/mlb-attendance-could-hit-80m-this-season You're going to honestly tell me there is parity in the MLB? Since 1995 the AL East has been won by someone other than the Yankees/Red Sox a total of 3 times. There are 2 BIG problems with the MLB - not enough teams make the playoffs and no salary cap. Adding a 2nd wild card team was a step in the right direction but the big thing is the salary cap. The Jays may not have been the best managed team in the league for the last 15 years, but they haven't been the worst and they've had no chance of making the playoffs in ages. It's boring to see the Yankees win every year unless you are a Yankees fan. I hate the way the MLB is structured.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2012 9:01:31 GMT -6
Go Mets!
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Post by mikecubs on Jun 26, 2012 9:33:22 GMT -6
There is parity in baseball. Look at how bunched up the standing are. Look at how many different world series winners there have been the past decade. The deeply troubled Tampa Bay Rays(the closest thing MLB has to the Coyotes) have made the playoffs for 3 of the past 4 years in the brutal AL east with the Yankees and Bo Sox!!! If they can do it Toronto has no excuse. Anyone can win it's just that the small markets have to trade some players away when they become too expensive and rebuild more often than big market teams but they can win. Small market fans just can't get attached to certain players. They come and go. And you really can't blame MLB for not having a cap. They tried in 94 and lost. It's not like they never thought about it. The MLB players union is a much different beast than any other players union. To break the union they would have to shut the game down for years. MLB is making too much money to do that. This year MLB expects to make 7.2-7.4 billion dollars. They make break the attendance record even. www.ballparkdigest.com/201206255094/major-league-baseball/news/mlb-attendance-could-hit-80m-this-season You're going to honestly tell me there is parity in the MLB? Since 1995 the AL East has been won by someone other than the Yankees/Red Sox a total of 3 times. There are 2 BIG problems with the MLB - not enough teams make the playoffs and no salary cap. Adding a 2nd wild card team was a step in the right direction but the big thing is the salary cap. The Jays may not have been the best managed team in the league for the last 15 years, but they haven't been the worst and they've had no chance of making the playoffs in ages. It's boring to see the Yankees win every year unless you are a Yankees fan. I hate the way the MLB is structured. Perfect parity. No, but it's not hopeless like you guys make it out to be. Small markets can win. Just draft well. The Florida Marlins won 2 world series playing in a football stadium with a tiny payroll. Cincinnati, Kansas City, Minnesota have won world series in my lifetime. Colorado, Cleveland and Tampa have been in the world series the last 17 years. The Expos could have won in 94. Milwaukee made the playoff twice recently and the Cincinnati Reds are about to do the same. Oakland made the playoffs a ton of times in the early 2000's and a hit movie was made about how smart the general manager was(moneyball) There is no question MLB would be better off with a cap. I don't disagree with that. I'd love a cap. But it isn't ever going to happen. The pain to get it would be way too much. Yes a team like the Yankees has a big advantage. But to say small markets have no chance is wrong. There is no excuse for teams like the Pirates and Royals never winning. It goes beyond payroll and market size. Those teams have crap management. How many good prospects have the Pirates and Royals developed the last 20 years? Not many. I agree with the part on not enough playoff teams. 4 was too few. I like 5. More than that takes away from the regular season. The playoffs are too much of a crap shoot in MLB. If you had like 8 teams you'd have the 8th seed winning way too much. Usually the team with the top record doesn't win in the playoffs. Look at the amount of wild cards that have been in the world series the past 10 years. As far as Toronto goes even if there is a huge disadvantage like you say Toronto can't use it as an excuse like a Pittsburgh, Cleveland or Kansas City can. Toronto is the 4th biggest city in North American when you use the CSA statistic. Toronto used to be a big market baseball wise in the early 90's signing guys like David Cone, Paul Molitor etc... They were usually a top payroll team. I bet you didn't complain then. How about doing these 2 things to change Toronto's status back to big market like the early 90's 1.Build a new retro park. make it 34,000-37,000 seats. have the team pay for a good portion of it. I feel the dome is hurting the team. It's the last multipurpose stadium built in MLB. Baseball isn't meant to be played in a circular stadium with a rug with no view of the outside of the stadium 2. Once the park is built have the fans show more interest like the early 90's Do these 2 things and manage the team better and Toronto becomes a big market again just like old times.
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Post by floatyghosthat on Jun 30, 2012 7:43:26 GMT -6
I'm not completely versed in MLB economics, but do they not have a "cap-esque" luxury tax? I realize that in its current state, it's way too insufficient to regulate parity, but over a few CBAs, could they not strengthen it (tougher penalties, fewer loopholes) to serve as a cap?
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Post by mikecubs on Jun 30, 2012 9:56:28 GMT -6
yes and no. They do have a luxury tax but it's so high the only one that usually pays anything is the Yankees. Once in a while the Red Sox pay a small small amount. If they tried to put more teeth in it there would be big trouble with the players union. I'll find more on the exact numbers later when I have time .....
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Post by mikecubs on Jul 2, 2012 20:14:23 GMT -6
Here is a good summary on the history of MLB's luxury tax(the thresholds and who paid what). www.stevetheump.com/luxury_tax.htmThe only thing it does is prevent the Yankees payroll from completely running away from the rest of the league.
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Post by wolfmannick on Aug 10, 2012 1:39:06 GMT -6
Report: Montreal can support Major League Baseball
It was not because their fans didn't care or that the city couldn't support them that the Expos left Montreal in 2004, according to a report by the Conference Board of Canada. But one of the key problems that helped drive the Expos out seven years ago — an uneven economic playing field between teams — makes it unlikely that the city will get another Major League Baseball team any time soon, the report concludes. “Montreal has a long and proud baseball history,” Mario Lefebvre, a co-author of The Future of Major League Baseball in Canada with Glen Hodgson, said in a statement on Friday. “It was the city where Jackie Robinson broke the colour barrier in professional baseball. “It was the first city outside the United States to obtain a major league team in 1969 and the first Canadian franchise to make the playoffs in 1981. But MLB broke the hearts of Montreal fans in 1994, when the season was cancelled while the Expos had the best record in baseball. MLB has done little to change its business model so more teams can be competitive consistently. Without a more level playing field, the Expos' tri-colour caps are likely to remain collectors' items.” The report said the Toronto Blue Jays are in no trouble despite being in a division with two of the richest teams, Boston and the New York Yankess. It said a solid market, stable ownership linked to broadcasting and an attractive stadium make the Blue Jays a viable franchise. The wide disparity in revenue between clubs and a weak Canadian dollar are seen as the main reasons the Expos were bought out by MLB and moved to Washington. The report said Montreal has everything needed to support a team, especially with a much stronger dollar in recent years. They are: — A team needs a population of at least 2.5 million to support a team and Montreal's metropolitan area has 3.8 million. — While Montreal ranks eighth among urban centres in Canada in disposable income, its people have “an appetite for entertainment” and enough money to attend games. — It has enough of a corporate presence. It has 98 of Canada's 800 largest companies, ranking third behind Toronto and Calgary. However, the report points out that the economic playing field in baseball is “the least-level of the four major North American sports. “The lack of a hard cap on player salaries and massive differences in revenue (including attendance, sale of broadcasting rights, merchandise and other income) among franchises make consistent winning very difficult for all but a handful of rich teams.” It said a new Montreal franchise would not be among the richest clubs so companies may be reluctant to invest. The team would also likely need a new stadium due to “the many problems of the Olympic Stadium as a baseball venue.” The authors said perceptions that baseball fans no longer wanted the team are false. “Today's generation of sports fans may think Montreal is not a baseball city, but Montreal was at one time very much a baseball city,” it said. “So lets get this straight: the love for the game was there. While the Expos eventually did leave, it wasn't because the fans didn't care. Neither was it because, as our market pillars show, the city couldn't support a Major League Baseball team.” The Conference Board is one of Canada's leading not-for-profit research organizations.
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Post by slippy on Aug 10, 2012 2:48:42 GMT -6
I've always wondered why Montreal never pursued an NBA franchise, considering they already have the modern venue for it (Bell Centre).
Talking about things like a Vancouver or Montreal MLB franchise is a waste of time, considering there are absolutely no plans to build new $500 MILLION ballparks.
Like I said, a Montreal NBA venue is ready to go tomorrow, if necessary.
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Post by wolfmannick on Aug 10, 2012 14:16:41 GMT -6
^ I think a big reason Montreal isn't interested in basketball is the same reason Seattle isn't interested in hockey, they want their old teams back. Would those sports work in the market? possibly, but I don't think we will know until the leagues try to put a team there, or until they get their old teams back.
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