Early Look at the Offseason: UFAs, RFAs, Unsigned Prospects
Mar 27, 2023 12:24:52 GMT -6
Ric O., lenny, and 3 more like this
Post by bigoljetairliner on Mar 27, 2023 12:24:52 GMT -6
Since this year's Winnipeg Jets squad seems to be in freefall that is destined to end in a crash landing, my thoughts have started to move onto the upcoming offseason.
Here's a brief synopsis of what Chevy or whomever is the Jets' GM at that point will be looking at when it comes to unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents, and unsigned prospects. I think we all know that changes involving some of the signed players must occur and I have started researching everything to make a post to prompt more discussions. But for now, I hope you find some of the below interesting. Cheers.
Unrestricted Free Agents:
This offseason, the General Manager will have to deal with 8 unrestricted free agents. Personally, I don't think this should cause much lost sleep, since any decent GM would know there shouldn't be many contract offers to make.
Let's start off with the oldest player, 33 yr old Sam Gagner. The veteran forward brought his experience to the lineup and gave the coaching some flexibility when the injuries started to pile up. That being said, he still only produced at a 24 pt pace for a full 82 game season, so it's not like his offense can't be replaced by someone who isn't coming off bilateral hip surgeries.
The next two oldest players are the ones I personally would at least consider re-signing. Newly acquired Vladislav Namestnikov will be 31 yrs old next season and if the veteran would consider signing in the Peg, I definitely would have to give it some thought. His 6 pts in 11 games with the Jets is more than Namestnikov normally puts up, but he certainly has seemed to develop some good chemistry with his bottom 6 linemates. With so much unknown about how the offseason will play out regarding forwards like Scheifele & Dubois, it seems there may be a need for Winnipeg to have some good depth options.
I probably would be a bit less likely to consider re-signing back up David Rittich, who will also be 31 next season. While his .902 save percentage is his best since his prime days in Calgary (.904-.911%), I think the Jets could find better options in free agency or within the organization. Of course, things could really blow up and Hellebuyck may want out after another disappointing season for the squad & one year left on his deal, then anything could happen.
Next up is 29 yr old Dominic Toninato, who has put up 25 pts in 40 games with the Manitoba Moose this season. After 3 seasons with the organization and 16 pts in 83 NHL games, I think the American's time with Winnipeg is coming to an end.
One of two 28 year old UFAs, Ashton Sautner came to the Jets in the offseason to mainly provide depth for the AHL. Typically playing in the top 4, the Manitoban has put up 10 pts & 46 PIMs in 58 games. With so much unknown about if the Jets finally move some of their defensemen, there is no way to know if Sautner will be signed as organizational depth or possibly by the Moose. At this point, the Jets would have 4 defensemen in the AHL next season with potential decisions on where Heinola and prospect Kuzmin play increasing that number.
The other 28 yr old player is Saku Maenalanen, who signed with Winnipeg after putting up 41 pts in 47 games in Liiga in 2021-22. The Finn has amassed 10 pts in 56 games in his 1st season as a Jet. Strong defensive play, penalty killing, and size kept the winger as one of Bowness' regular bottom 6 players, but is that really enough to earn a new contract? Unfortunately, he just might be one of those players that can score in Liiga but can't make the transition to the NHL.
Next up is everyone's favourite waiver-wire pick up, Karlson Kuhlman. After putting up 3 pts in 14 games (.214%) with Seattle, the Jets selected the right hand forward off the waiver wire. In 30 games with Winnipeg, Kuhlman's production has gotten worse: 4 pts (.133%) Those are hardly numbers that scream for the need to be re-signed, but who knows with this organization.
Our final free agent is goaltender Mikhail Berdin, who has spent the season in the KHL after four seasons with the Manitoba Moose. Because he is 25 yrs old, Winnipeg needed to get him into a certain number of NHL games in order to extend his RFA status, but the loan to Sochi this season didn't allow that to occur. The Russian keeper had a decent year, putting up a 3.26 GAA and a .914 save percentage. I'm not sure that Berdin is an improvement over Holm/Salminen and with the other goaltending options noted in the section below, so even if he was open to coming back to North America, I'm not sure signing him would be a priority if I was running things.
Unsigned Prospects:
Dmitri Rashevsky is the one prospect that definitely won't be signing with the Winnipeg Jets this offseason. The 6'1" winger has re-upped in the KHL for two more seasons, so the GM will have plenty of time to determine what the team has with the 2021 5th round draft pick. After being selected by Chevy in 2021, Rashevsky exploded with 19 goals (35 pts) in 48 games (.729%) in the KHL last season, a performance in the top 5 all time seasons for a player his age. This season hasn't been as kind to the 22 yr old, with 19 goals (38 pts) in 67 games (.567%).
Rutger McGroarty is one of two unsigned 1st round draft picks the Jets currently have. The big forward is entering the Final Four with Michigan in his first NCAA season. With 34 pts in 36 games (incl. 15 goals), the 6'1" winger has a .944 pt percentage on the season. He finished the regular season strong with 9 pts (5 G) in the final four matches. The gritty American can opt to turn pro in the offseason, but I think it's more likely that the 18 yr old will return for another season in the NCAA. Winnipeg has until August 15, 2026 to get his name on a contract.
The other unsigned 1st rounder is Kristian Vesalainen, who opted to return to Europe rather than re-sign with Winnipeg. After he was drafted in 2017, the Finnish winger had a career year in Liiga, putting up 43 pts in 49 games (.878%). We all know his struggles to score in North America, where his offensive output wasn't great in either the NHL or AHL. Initially, Ves's return to the Old World didn't go well, when 3 pts in 15 games was disappointing enough for Malmo of the SHL to release him from his contract. The Finn landed on his feet back where it all began, Liiga, and once again lived up to his potential, netting 37 pts in 40 games (.925%). While it's doubtful that he'll return to the Jets, Winnipeg does control his NHL rights until June 30, 2026, and it's better that he does well and possibly increase whatever trade value he has at 24 yrs old.
Along with McGroarty, the Jets also have three other unsigned players from that 2022 NHL Draft. One of those is goaltender Domenic DiVincentiis, who was drafted in the 7th round by Winnipeg after putting up a 2.59 GAA/.907 save percentage as a back up in his first year with the OHL's North Bay Battalion. His progression has gone very well in his sophmore campaign, as he has put up career-high numbers (2.37/.919%) so far as the team's starting tender. If one of Holm or Salminen gets promoted to the Jets' back up next year, then it's possible the GM gets Dom to sign a contract this offseason. Although, there is no rush as the team has until June 1st, 2024 to get a deal done.
The Winnipeg Jets used their 4th round pick of the 2022 NHL Draft on defenseman Garrett Brown. The 6'2" right hander is likely just starting his potential path to the NHL, since he is still playing in the US high school league this season (16 pts in 43 games). The American will likely go the NCAA route and it'll probably be a couple of seasons before turning pro becomes a consideration. The Jets GM has until August 15, 2026 to figure out if he deserves an NHL contract.
Fabian Wagner is the final 2022 draft alumni still unsigned. After putting up 38 pts in 43 games in Sweden's under 20 league in 2021-22, the Jets selected the left hand center in the 6th round. This season, Wagner has impressed in J20 league again (33 pts in 33 games) and at the World Juniors (6 pts in 7 games), but has failed to make an impact in the SHL (0 pts in 22 games). From the games I watched, his style of play reminded me of former Jet Andrew Copp. With no decision having to be made until 2026, the Jets will have to decide whether the 5'11" Swede is ready to make the leap to the AHL or whether they should let him find his feet in the SHL first.
Along with Rashevsky, Winnipeg also selected another Russian that draft, with Nikita Chibrikov being added with a 2nd round selection. Having his draft position increased by a 13 pts in 7 games at the under 18 World Juniors, the expectation was that the Jets were geting an prospect with an offensive upside. While Nikita has produced in the 2nd tier league (41 pts in 44 games), that offense hasn't translated to the KHL yet (2 pts in 31 games). The 20 year old's contract in Russia does end this year, so he could opt to make the jump to North America in the offseason. However, with the AHL or KHL the likely options for the right winger, I suspect he will stay over there for another season or two.
With a 5th round selection in 2020, the Jets took a chance on a diminutive defender, Anton Johannesson. Prior to being drafted, the 5'9" left hand defenseman showed his size didn't limit his offense in the J20 Swedish league, putting up 24 pts in 20 games. Last season, he failed to make the jump to the SHL and put up 18 pts in 24 games in J20. Unfortunately for the Swede, he just hasn't developed physically and that has resulted in him playing in HockeyEttan (3rd tier in Sweden). The Jets' GM has until June of 2024 to figure out if he's worth a NHL/AHL contract, but at this point it is looking unlikely.
Austin Wong was selected with a 7th round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, after an impressive season in Alberta's high school league (62 pts in 47 games). The 5'11" forward opted for the NCAA path, but his offense hasn't translated to that league (15 pts in 83 games). It's unlikely that Winnipeg offers Wong a contract, but they do have until August 15, 2024 to do so.
That leaves three players that the Jets' GM will have to make decisions on this upcoming offseason. The first is Harrison Blaisdell, a smaller center was selected in the 5th round in 2019 after putting up 58 pts in 51 games in the BC high school league. Another Canadian selecting the NCAA for their next step, the 22 yr old hasn't exactly taken the league by storm (28 pts in 108 games). This makes it highly unlikely he gets a contract offer before his rights with Winnipeg expires.
Another 5th round pick from 2019 was goaltender Logan Neaton, who used his 1.92 GAA/.912% in the BC high schoold league to catch Chevy's eye. The American returned south of the border and spent the next three seasons putting up less than impressive numbers (.869/.855/.887) in the NCAA. Neaton has had his best year in 22-23, putting up a .900 save percentage, but with only 9 games played it's clear that he has failed to break out of the back up role at that level. His play since being drafted, combined with decent goalie options for the AHL level (Holm/Salminen/DiVincentiis), I think it's improbable that he gets to put ink to a contract with the Jets.
The final player was drafted in the 6th round of the 2018 NHL Draft. Jared Moe put up a 2.23 GAA/.919% in the US high school league prior to being drafted and followed that up with a solid season at the same level. Moe then made the jump to the NCAA, which started well with .915% in 16 games with Minnesota. After being demoted to a rarely used back up option the following season, the American goalie transferred the next year to Wisconsin for a starter's job. Last season saw the 6'3" tender bounce back, with a 2.97GAA/.917% in 31 games, but he has regressed slightly this year in 30 games (3.31GAA/.898%). Facing the same crowded field that Neaton is and only flashes of elite play, Moe is facing an uphill battle to get a contract. Definitely the toughest decision on the pending three contracts.
Restricted Free Agents:
Winnipeg's GM will have to deal with a total of 11 restricted free agents (RFAs) this summer. The Jets will have to submit a qualifying offer by late June (typically the Monday following the NHL Entry Draft) in order to keep team control of the players, otherwise they automatically become unrestricted free agents. A qualifying offer by Winnipeg also protects it from offer sheets by other teams to their RFAs, as it will allow them to either match the offer or receive draft pick compensation.
FYI, a player has to be 27 years old by June 30th or have seven years of NHL service (min of 40 games/season) to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
The above is important when we get to the big French elephant in the Jets' dressing room, RFA Pierre Luc Dubois, who will be entering his 7th NHL season in 2023-24. Personally, I don't think a long-term contract is in the cards for PLD with the Jets, so that takes one option off the table for the GM and really makes a trade the most likely outcome. And really there is only one time that provides Winnipeg's management the opportunity to get the best return for the large talented center....the NHL's Entry Draft. If a team acquires him during the draft, then they have the opportunity to negotiate their own long-term deal. Should the Jets still have Dubois on their team after the draft is done, then they will need to submit a qualifying offer to retain his rights. If he accepts that offer, then his trade value is diminished since he is stuck on a one year deal that walks him straight into unrestricted free agency. The other options are to keep PLD in Winnipeg for one more year and make one last run with this core, getting nothing when he walks away to another team in the offseason OR keeping Dubois until the trade deadline and then shipping him out. The first of those is a horrible option, basically getting 3 years of PLD for Laine & Roslovic. The latter is more appealing when you consider the bounties given out by teams at the deadline, but is Winnipeg really going to make that trade if they are in a playoff position at that point? Really, a trade at the Entry Draft expands the amount of interested teams, giving them the hope that a large market/nice climate franchise could feel that they can entice Dubois to put his Habs dreams on hold after a full season with them. In the end, what the Jets end up getting for PLD could point to the direction the team will take in the upcoming years. If they get established players in return, then it's less likely the team will take a pro-active approach (i.e. consider trades this offseason) with the upcoming pivotal Hellebuyck/Scheifele decisions.
The next RFA in terms of importance is probably defenseman Dylan Samberg (8 pts in 54 games/+5). The 6'3" Minnesotan appears to have the inside track on the 3rd pairing LHD spot over the likes of Stanley, Capobianco, & Heinola - but he can't feel too comfortable since he still ends up a healthy scratch at times. With the possibility of any left handed defenseman other than Morrissey being moved in the offseason, it's impossible to predict exactly where Samberg will fit in. Regardless, Winnipeg still has 3 years of team control over the American defenseman, so it is likely that the Jets re-sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal.
Another RFA that comes close in terms of value to Winnipeg is winger Morgan Barron (18 pts in 61 games/+2). The 6'4" Canadian hasn't had a great season, but has gotten better as the year progressed and is an important member of a decent 4th line for the Jets. With the lack of NHL-ready forward depth in the organization, I can't see Winnipeg not offering Barron a new contract. Like Samberg, the Halifax-born skater hasn't seen enough NHL time to reach UFA status early, so he is under team control until 27 (3 more seasons).
The next three RFAs likely have similar values, so let's start with former 1st rounder Logan Stanley (3 pts in 17 games/-1). The 6'6" LHD has failed to break through the logjam in the Jets defense and since he has apparently asked for a trade, this probably won't be a simple negotiation. The Winnipeg Jets do have team control of the big defenseman for another 3 seasons, so Stanley has very little control of the situation. My very faulty crystal ball predicts the Jets will grant his request and move on from the 18th overall pick.
Kevin Stenlund came to Winnipeg for a fresh start this past offseason and it paid off when he worked his way up from the Manitoba Moose to the Jets. His season has been far from spectacular (7 pts in 45 games/+1), but he has found a niche on the 4th line with his strong defensive/penalty killing, as well as his decent face-off percentage. While Stenlund won't be a high priority for Winnipeg's management, they still might offer him another contract in his final RFA season to once again fight for a 4th line or AHL spot.
The final RFA currently on the Winnipeg Jets roster is Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (13 pts in 49 games/-2). The speedy winger was on pace for 22 pts in a full regular season, not exactly astonishing numbers, but enough to likely put him in the running for a 4th line spot next season. The Jets have team control of the waiver-claimed Swede for two more seasons, so it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted his qualifying offer and was back on a 1 yr deal. What does bother me is having him sitting in the pressbox watching the Jets play terrible hockey when he could be playing with the Moose, who happen to be in a 3-way battle for the top spot in the AHL's Central Division.
The Manitoba Moose currently have five RFAs currently playing for them, with four playing large roles for the antlered ones. Arvid Holm came over to the Moose last season and put up a 2.90 GAA/.0877 save % in his rookie campaign. The 6'4" Swedish goalie has used this season in the AHL to jump into the #1 spot for Winnipeg's goaltending prospects, posting a 2.62 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 31 games as Holm emerged as Manitoba's starter (15th in the league in GAA and his save % placing him in 10th in the AHL). With 3 years of team control and numbers possibly suggesting that the 6th round pick from 2017 may be ready for an NHL back up position, I am certain the Jets' GM will get him signed for another year or two.
Declan Chisholm was selected by the Jets in the 5th round in 2018 and has been playing in the AHL since the 2020-21 season. The smooth skating 6'1" LHD has shown signs of being similar in style to Morrissey, though a bit less talented in the skating department. The Ontario-born d-man has improved his offensive numbers steadily in the AHL, going from .464 to .566 to .729 in points percentages in the three seasons, ending with an impressive 5 goals & 43 pts in 59 games this year. Unfortunately, Chisholm recently sustained a high ankle sprain when he went awkwardly into the boards and his return date is unknown at this time, but unlikely before the end of the regular season, if not the playoffs. Winnipeg has team control of the 23 year old defenseman for another 4 seasons, so a 2 or 3 year extension is a possibility.
Next up is Chisholm's regular playing partner, right hand defenseman Leon Gawanke. Another 5th round pick, this time from the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, the 23 yr old German is in his 4th AHL campaign. Gawanke has been fairly consistent offensively with the Moose, having 3 good seasons (.542/.554/.627 pts %) and one bad one (.269 pts %). This season, the RHD has 15 goals on the season, which is one away from tying Sami Niku's AHL career best and two away from tying the Moose all-time record for goals by a defenseman in a season (Brett Hauer). Despite the duo of Chisholm & Gawanke putting up career-high numbers, their defensive play has slipped a bit this year. The Jets have control of the 6'1" d-man for another 4 seasons, so look for Gawanke to be battling for a 3rd pairing roster spot with the Jets next season or more likely to be on the top pairing in the AHL.
Alex Limoges put up 40 pts in 62 games (.645%) with the San Diego Gulls of the AHL in 2021-22, leading to the Winnipeg Jets signing him to a one year deal in the past offseason. The West Virginian has responded with 50 pts in 55 games (.909%) with Manitoba's top line in 2022-23. He is tied for the team lead in PPG with Gawanke (7) and has one of the better plus/minus ratings on the Moose (+8). The Jets do have team control of Limoges for two more seasons, but since he was never given a chance during the string of injuries Winnipeg sustained this year, I wonder if the team sees him only as an AHL player. That won't stop them from re-signing him though, since the AHL squad should be full of young prospects next season and can always use a proven scoring veteran to fill out the roster.
The last RFA is one that has very little chance of being re-signed by Winnipeg, goaltender Evan Cormier. Chevy did his annual late signing of a 5th goaltender to ensure depth for both the Jets and Moose as they approach the playoffs and in 2022-23 it was the ECHL/AHL veteran. Prior to being signed by the Peg, Cormier posted a .909 save % in 31 ECHL games with Kalamazoo, but hasn't cracked the lineup with Manitoba since he put pen to paper. The team has two years of control on the 25 yr old goalie, but it seems unlikely that he is given a qualifying offer.
Here's a brief synopsis of what Chevy or whomever is the Jets' GM at that point will be looking at when it comes to unrestricted free agents, restricted free agents, and unsigned prospects. I think we all know that changes involving some of the signed players must occur and I have started researching everything to make a post to prompt more discussions. But for now, I hope you find some of the below interesting. Cheers.
Unrestricted Free Agents:
This offseason, the General Manager will have to deal with 8 unrestricted free agents. Personally, I don't think this should cause much lost sleep, since any decent GM would know there shouldn't be many contract offers to make.
Let's start off with the oldest player, 33 yr old Sam Gagner. The veteran forward brought his experience to the lineup and gave the coaching some flexibility when the injuries started to pile up. That being said, he still only produced at a 24 pt pace for a full 82 game season, so it's not like his offense can't be replaced by someone who isn't coming off bilateral hip surgeries.
The next two oldest players are the ones I personally would at least consider re-signing. Newly acquired Vladislav Namestnikov will be 31 yrs old next season and if the veteran would consider signing in the Peg, I definitely would have to give it some thought. His 6 pts in 11 games with the Jets is more than Namestnikov normally puts up, but he certainly has seemed to develop some good chemistry with his bottom 6 linemates. With so much unknown about how the offseason will play out regarding forwards like Scheifele & Dubois, it seems there may be a need for Winnipeg to have some good depth options.
I probably would be a bit less likely to consider re-signing back up David Rittich, who will also be 31 next season. While his .902 save percentage is his best since his prime days in Calgary (.904-.911%), I think the Jets could find better options in free agency or within the organization. Of course, things could really blow up and Hellebuyck may want out after another disappointing season for the squad & one year left on his deal, then anything could happen.
Next up is 29 yr old Dominic Toninato, who has put up 25 pts in 40 games with the Manitoba Moose this season. After 3 seasons with the organization and 16 pts in 83 NHL games, I think the American's time with Winnipeg is coming to an end.
One of two 28 year old UFAs, Ashton Sautner came to the Jets in the offseason to mainly provide depth for the AHL. Typically playing in the top 4, the Manitoban has put up 10 pts & 46 PIMs in 58 games. With so much unknown about if the Jets finally move some of their defensemen, there is no way to know if Sautner will be signed as organizational depth or possibly by the Moose. At this point, the Jets would have 4 defensemen in the AHL next season with potential decisions on where Heinola and prospect Kuzmin play increasing that number.
The other 28 yr old player is Saku Maenalanen, who signed with Winnipeg after putting up 41 pts in 47 games in Liiga in 2021-22. The Finn has amassed 10 pts in 56 games in his 1st season as a Jet. Strong defensive play, penalty killing, and size kept the winger as one of Bowness' regular bottom 6 players, but is that really enough to earn a new contract? Unfortunately, he just might be one of those players that can score in Liiga but can't make the transition to the NHL.
Next up is everyone's favourite waiver-wire pick up, Karlson Kuhlman. After putting up 3 pts in 14 games (.214%) with Seattle, the Jets selected the right hand forward off the waiver wire. In 30 games with Winnipeg, Kuhlman's production has gotten worse: 4 pts (.133%) Those are hardly numbers that scream for the need to be re-signed, but who knows with this organization.
Our final free agent is goaltender Mikhail Berdin, who has spent the season in the KHL after four seasons with the Manitoba Moose. Because he is 25 yrs old, Winnipeg needed to get him into a certain number of NHL games in order to extend his RFA status, but the loan to Sochi this season didn't allow that to occur. The Russian keeper had a decent year, putting up a 3.26 GAA and a .914 save percentage. I'm not sure that Berdin is an improvement over Holm/Salminen and with the other goaltending options noted in the section below, so even if he was open to coming back to North America, I'm not sure signing him would be a priority if I was running things.
Unsigned Prospects:
Dmitri Rashevsky is the one prospect that definitely won't be signing with the Winnipeg Jets this offseason. The 6'1" winger has re-upped in the KHL for two more seasons, so the GM will have plenty of time to determine what the team has with the 2021 5th round draft pick. After being selected by Chevy in 2021, Rashevsky exploded with 19 goals (35 pts) in 48 games (.729%) in the KHL last season, a performance in the top 5 all time seasons for a player his age. This season hasn't been as kind to the 22 yr old, with 19 goals (38 pts) in 67 games (.567%).
Rutger McGroarty is one of two unsigned 1st round draft picks the Jets currently have. The big forward is entering the Final Four with Michigan in his first NCAA season. With 34 pts in 36 games (incl. 15 goals), the 6'1" winger has a .944 pt percentage on the season. He finished the regular season strong with 9 pts (5 G) in the final four matches. The gritty American can opt to turn pro in the offseason, but I think it's more likely that the 18 yr old will return for another season in the NCAA. Winnipeg has until August 15, 2026 to get his name on a contract.
The other unsigned 1st rounder is Kristian Vesalainen, who opted to return to Europe rather than re-sign with Winnipeg. After he was drafted in 2017, the Finnish winger had a career year in Liiga, putting up 43 pts in 49 games (.878%). We all know his struggles to score in North America, where his offensive output wasn't great in either the NHL or AHL. Initially, Ves's return to the Old World didn't go well, when 3 pts in 15 games was disappointing enough for Malmo of the SHL to release him from his contract. The Finn landed on his feet back where it all began, Liiga, and once again lived up to his potential, netting 37 pts in 40 games (.925%). While it's doubtful that he'll return to the Jets, Winnipeg does control his NHL rights until June 30, 2026, and it's better that he does well and possibly increase whatever trade value he has at 24 yrs old.
Along with McGroarty, the Jets also have three other unsigned players from that 2022 NHL Draft. One of those is goaltender Domenic DiVincentiis, who was drafted in the 7th round by Winnipeg after putting up a 2.59 GAA/.907 save percentage as a back up in his first year with the OHL's North Bay Battalion. His progression has gone very well in his sophmore campaign, as he has put up career-high numbers (2.37/.919%) so far as the team's starting tender. If one of Holm or Salminen gets promoted to the Jets' back up next year, then it's possible the GM gets Dom to sign a contract this offseason. Although, there is no rush as the team has until June 1st, 2024 to get a deal done.
The Winnipeg Jets used their 4th round pick of the 2022 NHL Draft on defenseman Garrett Brown. The 6'2" right hander is likely just starting his potential path to the NHL, since he is still playing in the US high school league this season (16 pts in 43 games). The American will likely go the NCAA route and it'll probably be a couple of seasons before turning pro becomes a consideration. The Jets GM has until August 15, 2026 to figure out if he deserves an NHL contract.
Fabian Wagner is the final 2022 draft alumni still unsigned. After putting up 38 pts in 43 games in Sweden's under 20 league in 2021-22, the Jets selected the left hand center in the 6th round. This season, Wagner has impressed in J20 league again (33 pts in 33 games) and at the World Juniors (6 pts in 7 games), but has failed to make an impact in the SHL (0 pts in 22 games). From the games I watched, his style of play reminded me of former Jet Andrew Copp. With no decision having to be made until 2026, the Jets will have to decide whether the 5'11" Swede is ready to make the leap to the AHL or whether they should let him find his feet in the SHL first.
Along with Rashevsky, Winnipeg also selected another Russian that draft, with Nikita Chibrikov being added with a 2nd round selection. Having his draft position increased by a 13 pts in 7 games at the under 18 World Juniors, the expectation was that the Jets were geting an prospect with an offensive upside. While Nikita has produced in the 2nd tier league (41 pts in 44 games), that offense hasn't translated to the KHL yet (2 pts in 31 games). The 20 year old's contract in Russia does end this year, so he could opt to make the jump to North America in the offseason. However, with the AHL or KHL the likely options for the right winger, I suspect he will stay over there for another season or two.
With a 5th round selection in 2020, the Jets took a chance on a diminutive defender, Anton Johannesson. Prior to being drafted, the 5'9" left hand defenseman showed his size didn't limit his offense in the J20 Swedish league, putting up 24 pts in 20 games. Last season, he failed to make the jump to the SHL and put up 18 pts in 24 games in J20. Unfortunately for the Swede, he just hasn't developed physically and that has resulted in him playing in HockeyEttan (3rd tier in Sweden). The Jets' GM has until June of 2024 to figure out if he's worth a NHL/AHL contract, but at this point it is looking unlikely.
Austin Wong was selected with a 7th round pick in the 2018 NHL Draft, after an impressive season in Alberta's high school league (62 pts in 47 games). The 5'11" forward opted for the NCAA path, but his offense hasn't translated to that league (15 pts in 83 games). It's unlikely that Winnipeg offers Wong a contract, but they do have until August 15, 2024 to do so.
That leaves three players that the Jets' GM will have to make decisions on this upcoming offseason. The first is Harrison Blaisdell, a smaller center was selected in the 5th round in 2019 after putting up 58 pts in 51 games in the BC high school league. Another Canadian selecting the NCAA for their next step, the 22 yr old hasn't exactly taken the league by storm (28 pts in 108 games). This makes it highly unlikely he gets a contract offer before his rights with Winnipeg expires.
Another 5th round pick from 2019 was goaltender Logan Neaton, who used his 1.92 GAA/.912% in the BC high schoold league to catch Chevy's eye. The American returned south of the border and spent the next three seasons putting up less than impressive numbers (.869/.855/.887) in the NCAA. Neaton has had his best year in 22-23, putting up a .900 save percentage, but with only 9 games played it's clear that he has failed to break out of the back up role at that level. His play since being drafted, combined with decent goalie options for the AHL level (Holm/Salminen/DiVincentiis), I think it's improbable that he gets to put ink to a contract with the Jets.
The final player was drafted in the 6th round of the 2018 NHL Draft. Jared Moe put up a 2.23 GAA/.919% in the US high school league prior to being drafted and followed that up with a solid season at the same level. Moe then made the jump to the NCAA, which started well with .915% in 16 games with Minnesota. After being demoted to a rarely used back up option the following season, the American goalie transferred the next year to Wisconsin for a starter's job. Last season saw the 6'3" tender bounce back, with a 2.97GAA/.917% in 31 games, but he has regressed slightly this year in 30 games (3.31GAA/.898%). Facing the same crowded field that Neaton is and only flashes of elite play, Moe is facing an uphill battle to get a contract. Definitely the toughest decision on the pending three contracts.
Restricted Free Agents:
Winnipeg's GM will have to deal with a total of 11 restricted free agents (RFAs) this summer. The Jets will have to submit a qualifying offer by late June (typically the Monday following the NHL Entry Draft) in order to keep team control of the players, otherwise they automatically become unrestricted free agents. A qualifying offer by Winnipeg also protects it from offer sheets by other teams to their RFAs, as it will allow them to either match the offer or receive draft pick compensation.
FYI, a player has to be 27 years old by June 30th or have seven years of NHL service (min of 40 games/season) to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA).
The above is important when we get to the big French elephant in the Jets' dressing room, RFA Pierre Luc Dubois, who will be entering his 7th NHL season in 2023-24. Personally, I don't think a long-term contract is in the cards for PLD with the Jets, so that takes one option off the table for the GM and really makes a trade the most likely outcome. And really there is only one time that provides Winnipeg's management the opportunity to get the best return for the large talented center....the NHL's Entry Draft. If a team acquires him during the draft, then they have the opportunity to negotiate their own long-term deal. Should the Jets still have Dubois on their team after the draft is done, then they will need to submit a qualifying offer to retain his rights. If he accepts that offer, then his trade value is diminished since he is stuck on a one year deal that walks him straight into unrestricted free agency. The other options are to keep PLD in Winnipeg for one more year and make one last run with this core, getting nothing when he walks away to another team in the offseason OR keeping Dubois until the trade deadline and then shipping him out. The first of those is a horrible option, basically getting 3 years of PLD for Laine & Roslovic. The latter is more appealing when you consider the bounties given out by teams at the deadline, but is Winnipeg really going to make that trade if they are in a playoff position at that point? Really, a trade at the Entry Draft expands the amount of interested teams, giving them the hope that a large market/nice climate franchise could feel that they can entice Dubois to put his Habs dreams on hold after a full season with them. In the end, what the Jets end up getting for PLD could point to the direction the team will take in the upcoming years. If they get established players in return, then it's less likely the team will take a pro-active approach (i.e. consider trades this offseason) with the upcoming pivotal Hellebuyck/Scheifele decisions.
The next RFA in terms of importance is probably defenseman Dylan Samberg (8 pts in 54 games/+5). The 6'3" Minnesotan appears to have the inside track on the 3rd pairing LHD spot over the likes of Stanley, Capobianco, & Heinola - but he can't feel too comfortable since he still ends up a healthy scratch at times. With the possibility of any left handed defenseman other than Morrissey being moved in the offseason, it's impossible to predict exactly where Samberg will fit in. Regardless, Winnipeg still has 3 years of team control over the American defenseman, so it is likely that the Jets re-sign him to a 1 or 2 year deal.
Another RFA that comes close in terms of value to Winnipeg is winger Morgan Barron (18 pts in 61 games/+2). The 6'4" Canadian hasn't had a great season, but has gotten better as the year progressed and is an important member of a decent 4th line for the Jets. With the lack of NHL-ready forward depth in the organization, I can't see Winnipeg not offering Barron a new contract. Like Samberg, the Halifax-born skater hasn't seen enough NHL time to reach UFA status early, so he is under team control until 27 (3 more seasons).
The next three RFAs likely have similar values, so let's start with former 1st rounder Logan Stanley (3 pts in 17 games/-1). The 6'6" LHD has failed to break through the logjam in the Jets defense and since he has apparently asked for a trade, this probably won't be a simple negotiation. The Winnipeg Jets do have team control of the big defenseman for another 3 seasons, so Stanley has very little control of the situation. My very faulty crystal ball predicts the Jets will grant his request and move on from the 18th overall pick.
Kevin Stenlund came to Winnipeg for a fresh start this past offseason and it paid off when he worked his way up from the Manitoba Moose to the Jets. His season has been far from spectacular (7 pts in 45 games/+1), but he has found a niche on the 4th line with his strong defensive/penalty killing, as well as his decent face-off percentage. While Stenlund won't be a high priority for Winnipeg's management, they still might offer him another contract in his final RFA season to once again fight for a 4th line or AHL spot.
The final RFA currently on the Winnipeg Jets roster is Axel Jonsson-Fjallby (13 pts in 49 games/-2). The speedy winger was on pace for 22 pts in a full regular season, not exactly astonishing numbers, but enough to likely put him in the running for a 4th line spot next season. The Jets have team control of the waiver-claimed Swede for two more seasons, so it wouldn't surprise me if he accepted his qualifying offer and was back on a 1 yr deal. What does bother me is having him sitting in the pressbox watching the Jets play terrible hockey when he could be playing with the Moose, who happen to be in a 3-way battle for the top spot in the AHL's Central Division.
The Manitoba Moose currently have five RFAs currently playing for them, with four playing large roles for the antlered ones. Arvid Holm came over to the Moose last season and put up a 2.90 GAA/.0877 save % in his rookie campaign. The 6'4" Swedish goalie has used this season in the AHL to jump into the #1 spot for Winnipeg's goaltending prospects, posting a 2.62 GAA and a .914 save percentage in 31 games as Holm emerged as Manitoba's starter (15th in the league in GAA and his save % placing him in 10th in the AHL). With 3 years of team control and numbers possibly suggesting that the 6th round pick from 2017 may be ready for an NHL back up position, I am certain the Jets' GM will get him signed for another year or two.
Declan Chisholm was selected by the Jets in the 5th round in 2018 and has been playing in the AHL since the 2020-21 season. The smooth skating 6'1" LHD has shown signs of being similar in style to Morrissey, though a bit less talented in the skating department. The Ontario-born d-man has improved his offensive numbers steadily in the AHL, going from .464 to .566 to .729 in points percentages in the three seasons, ending with an impressive 5 goals & 43 pts in 59 games this year. Unfortunately, Chisholm recently sustained a high ankle sprain when he went awkwardly into the boards and his return date is unknown at this time, but unlikely before the end of the regular season, if not the playoffs. Winnipeg has team control of the 23 year old defenseman for another 4 seasons, so a 2 or 3 year extension is a possibility.
Next up is Chisholm's regular playing partner, right hand defenseman Leon Gawanke. Another 5th round pick, this time from the 2017 NHL Entry Draft, the 23 yr old German is in his 4th AHL campaign. Gawanke has been fairly consistent offensively with the Moose, having 3 good seasons (.542/.554/.627 pts %) and one bad one (.269 pts %). This season, the RHD has 15 goals on the season, which is one away from tying Sami Niku's AHL career best and two away from tying the Moose all-time record for goals by a defenseman in a season (Brett Hauer). Despite the duo of Chisholm & Gawanke putting up career-high numbers, their defensive play has slipped a bit this year. The Jets have control of the 6'1" d-man for another 4 seasons, so look for Gawanke to be battling for a 3rd pairing roster spot with the Jets next season or more likely to be on the top pairing in the AHL.
Alex Limoges put up 40 pts in 62 games (.645%) with the San Diego Gulls of the AHL in 2021-22, leading to the Winnipeg Jets signing him to a one year deal in the past offseason. The West Virginian has responded with 50 pts in 55 games (.909%) with Manitoba's top line in 2022-23. He is tied for the team lead in PPG with Gawanke (7) and has one of the better plus/minus ratings on the Moose (+8). The Jets do have team control of Limoges for two more seasons, but since he was never given a chance during the string of injuries Winnipeg sustained this year, I wonder if the team sees him only as an AHL player. That won't stop them from re-signing him though, since the AHL squad should be full of young prospects next season and can always use a proven scoring veteran to fill out the roster.
The last RFA is one that has very little chance of being re-signed by Winnipeg, goaltender Evan Cormier. Chevy did his annual late signing of a 5th goaltender to ensure depth for both the Jets and Moose as they approach the playoffs and in 2022-23 it was the ECHL/AHL veteran. Prior to being signed by the Peg, Cormier posted a .909 save % in 31 ECHL games with Kalamazoo, but hasn't cracked the lineup with Manitoba since he put pen to paper. The team has two years of control on the 25 yr old goalie, but it seems unlikely that he is given a qualifying offer.