Winnipeg Jets' Off-Season Road Map: Part 2
May 10, 2024 14:08:05 GMT -6
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Post by bigoljetairliner on May 10, 2024 14:08:05 GMT -6
Winnipeg Jets' Off-Season Road Map: Part 2
As we travel with the Winnipeg Jets through the upcoming off-season, a big date on Kevin Cheveldayoff’s calendar approaches as we near July 1st. This not only represents the official start date of the 2024-25 National Hockey League season, but it’s also the beginning of the free agent frenzy. However, before we get to that, Chevy has a few more things to get done….
Lets start off with the Jets’ pending seven restricted free agents (RFAs) and see whether Winnipeg’s GM will make them qualifying offers (QOs) to retain their rights. Should an NHL team not qualify a RFA player without a contract, they become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) on July 1st. When an NHL team does offer a qualify offer, it guarantees the player of a 1 year contract at a rate slightly higher than their previous salary should they accept it. Often, the QO is just a way to retain the player’s rights while they negotiate a similar or longer contract over the off-season and if that doesn’t work, things can go to arbitration to decide the yearly amount.
The Jets’ pending RFAs fall into three categories: Low, Medium, and High importance decisions. The Low group contains two players that I don’t expect to be re-signed by Winnipeg – goalie Oskari Salminen & defender Artemi Kniazev. Both players started last season with the Manitoba Moose, but ended up finishing in another league due to poor performances (ECHL & KHL respectively). Salminen is a big bodied goaltender that has shown some promise, but consistency has been beyond his grasp and the 25 yr old will likely be squeezed out of the Manitoba Moose depth chart by two other goaltenders already under contract for next season (Thomas Milic & Dominic DiVincentiis). Kniazev never really panned out since coming over from the San Jose Sharks after 28 pts in 61 game season with their AHL affiliate. The smooth skating Russian was a disaster in his own end and when the offense dried up too (5 assists in 20 AHL games) he was loaned to a KHL team (0 pts in 18 games). Since Kniazev is only 23 yrs old, Winnipeg does have the option of offering a qualifying offer to retain his rights indefinitely but not really sure it’s worth it.
The Medium group consists of two players who receive a lot of criticism from the fans, so some may see the calls as no-brainers. But I would probably rate it closer to a coin-flip in my mind…it could go either way when it comes to David Gustafsson & Logan Stanley. I’ve always had a soft spot for Gus due to watching him for years on the Manitoba Moose, where he scored a goal approximately every 3 games and gave me hope Winnipeg had found a grinding bottom sixer with a decent amount of scoring touch. Unfortunately, it hasn’t really worked out for Gustafsson on the offensive side so Chevy has to decide when the defensive & face-off abilities the 24 yr old Swede has are enough to keep him around as a depth option. For what its worth, I would opt to keep him as there isn’t a shortage of contract slots available (32 of 50 used as of July 1st). Then we get to the polarizing Stanley, the massive defenseman who can excite fans with big bodychecks but also have them slapping their foreheads in frustration with erratic play in his own end. Big Stan will be 26 yrs old later this month and I believe will qualify for UFA status next off-season…should Chevy let him get there a year early? Unless he can include him in some sort of draft day package, I would say yes. But since Winnipeg has allowed the logjam on the left side to go on for years, who really knows?
The High importance category include the three remaining players, who were all drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds. The youngest of the group is 22 yr old Cole Perfetti, who has put up 75 pts in 140 NHL games (0.536 pts/gm) since being drafted 10th overall in 2020. Perfetti narrowly missed the 20 goal mark this season in what he will admit was a disappointing campaign, but as I mentioned in my earlier article the upside is too great for the Jets to let go. There is no doubt about Fetti being offered a qualifying offer (QO), more a matter whether his next contract will be a bridge or long-term deal. Leaning to a shorter term agreement, since Cole isn’t negotiating from a position of strength after an up & down year. Next up is a recently turned 23 yr old Ville Heinola, who seems to have been around forever after being selected with the 18th pick in the 2019 draft. Despite that feeling, the offensive lefty has only dressed for 35 NHL games (11 pts) over 5 seasons. Heinola has performed well with the Moose though, putting up 102 pts over 152 AHL games (0.67 pts/gm) and a +35 rating. Once again, I droned on about the Finn’s upside in Part One during the discussion about whether to trade him for a draft pick, so I won’t repeat myself. A QO will definitely occur but I don’t see the Jets or the defenseman going longer than a 1 yr deal at this point….another prove it season before Ville can potentially cash in with a longer deal. The final player is another 23 yr old defenseman, this time in the form of righty Simon Lundmark. The Swede has played three campaigns with Manitoba and put up 48 pts in 188 AHL games (0.255 pts/gm). While Lundmark will never be a flashy offensive threat from the back end, his defensive play along with his 6’2″ frame & right-handedness makes him worthwhile to keep around with a qualifying offer. Still probably a year away from being a potential 3rd pairing guy in the NHL, Simon will provide depth in the organization and help out the Moose next year.
Before Cheveldayoff lets July 1st creep up on him, he also has to decide if he wants to make a run at re-signing any of his 12 UFAs before the other NHL teams get in the mix. Once again we will use the same three categories as above and start off with the group that requires the least thought for the Jets’ GM. The Low importance group only has two players in it, Tyler Toffoli and Kristian Reichel. Despite giving up a 2nd & 3rd round pick for Toffoli and the fact that his scoring wasn’t that bad in a Jets’ jersey (0.611 pts/gm with Winnipeg compared to 0.721 pts/gm with New Jersey), the player never really seemed to gel very well. That combined with Tyler having no interest in re-upping in the Peg makes this an easy call for Chevy. Kristian Reichel exploded offensively for Manitoba and was a big part in their surge to qualify for the post-season as he put up career-high AHL numbers (23 G/42 Pts/70 GM). But he has taken the ball out of the GM’s hands by signing with the German league.
The Medium section is much larger, consisting of 6 players of varying importance. The first player is recently acquired defenseman Colin Miller (cost a 4th in 2026), who only got into 6 out of a possible 19 games with Winnipeg. While I didn’t think he looked all that impressive in the regular season, his one playoff appearance saw him take his game to another level. Possibly his usage by the coaching staff will make the 32 yr old defender refuse to consider another contract with the Jets, but if the franchise is determined to make some changes to their right side then a Miller signing might be the first clue. That being said, they could allow him to reach free agency and still keep the possibility of a new contract on the table. While I am all for altering the RHD personnel, I am uncertain whether Miller is part of the answer (though he certainly wouldn’t hurt as a 3rd RHD). The remaining five players all spent last season with the Manitoba Moose, so really are just depth decisions for management. As I mentioned earlier, the Moose likely already have two goalies signed for 2024-25, but a veteran tender could always be an option to help mentor them. Should that guy be Collin Delia? The masked man will be 30 yrs old next season and his numbers on a defensively-suspect Moose squad weren’t great (3.35 GAA/0.872 save %), but he definitely made some ten-bell saves over the season. Either way, it’s not a decision that Chevy needs to make before free agency begins, because I can’t see Delia’s phone ringing off the hook over the summer.
Moving on, the Jets now have to consider two depth defenders in Ashton Sautner and Kyle Capobianco. Starting off the easier call, Sautner is a Manitoba-born defenseman who has played the last two years with the Moose. While Winnipeg would likely be happy to offer him a contract with their affiliate, I don’t foresee them signing him to another big league deal. Capobianco is a whole different story though, as he is coming off an incredible campaign (12 goals, 54 pts, +29) to be named the AHL’s Most Outstanding Defenseman. Even though Capo will be 27 yrs old at the start of next season, he would have still been an RFA had he got into another 7 NHL games….some more fodder for the anti-Chevy crowd. As to re-signing Kyle, I would be all for it but I doubt he sees much opportunity on the left side on Winnipeg’s defense. My guess is he opts to test free agency, but playing in the city he had his most successful season may have some attraction too.
One of Cheveldayoff’s last off-season signings is next with Jeffrey Viel coming off his first season in a Moose uniform. While hardly thrilled with the signing at the time, Viel grew on me over the season as he became a key part of Manitoba’s energy line. The 27 yr old forward contributed offensively with 17 goals and 40 pts, but also wracked up 142 penalty minutes in 69 games. Veteran forwards are always needed in the minors and Winnipeg will have to decide whether Viel or the next guy we look at continue to provide value. That player is Jeff Malott, who has 4 campaigns with the Moose under his belt (82 G/157 Pts in 237 AHL games – 0.662 pts/gm). The power forward gets a lot of greasy goals and his production would be missed by Manitoba, but since he will be 28 to start the season there could be better options available. I would miss his clutch scoring and occasional scraps though.
Our final UFA category is the High section, which involves the players the Winnipeg Jets would most likely want to keep. All four of these guys could make our squad better in 2024-25, but the salary cap and overall direction of the team may stop the Jets from coming to an agreement. The newest player in Winnipeg of this group is Sean Monahan, who the Jets paid a 1st round draft pick to obtain from the Montreal Canadiens. The center will be 30 years old next year after his healthiest season in quite a while (83 games with 26 goals and 59 pts) and he was extremely effective in the bumper spot on the powerplay. There is an apparent hole at the 2C spot on the roster if the staff don’t see players like Vilardi or Lambert capable of filling that role, so the interest could certainly be there. Monahan indicated that he was interested in signing in a place where he can win, so if he means in the regular season he may consider the Jets in that category. I am torn on the call at this point, because I see it as blocking young Lambo but unless the team makes some alterations to its top six forward make up Mony might be the best call for next season’s success. Cost could be an issue for Winnipeg, but they have so many different ways to shed salary that I don’t think money will be a huge obstacle…unless someone is drastically willing to overpay him in free agency.
While dollars will be a consideration on all four of these players, it probably will impact the Jets’ ability to re-sign Laurent Brossoit the most. First, the goalie is coming off a splendid season (2.00 GAA/0.927%) so he deserves to get paid and second is that teams don’t tend to allocate much money for the backup spot when they are paying their starter $8.5M/yr. When you add the probability that Brossoit would like a shot at a starter’s role (or at least enough games to get his name on the Jennings trophy), make him the least likely of this group to be back in the Peg.
Our final two players are the defensemen Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon, who each bring varying strengths to Winnipeg’s defensive core. DeMelo in my opinion is the key UFA for the Jets this off-season, but not solely due to his great season on the top pairing (31 pts & +46 rating). No, the main reason for that is our squad’s lack of NHL depth on the right side of the defense. While I am desperate for changes to the lower right-hand defensemen, there is no way the Jets will be able to fill both top spots so I believe they have to re-up the 31 yr old to at least give them one solid pairing at the top of the depth chart. For me the decision is more difficult when it comes to Dillon, mainly due to the fact that the Jets already have 2 out of 3 LHD spots filled (Morrissey/Samberg). However, the style the 33 yr old defender plays is very much needed by Winnipeg, so while re-signing Brenden would block younger options like Heinola there is an argument to be made that it would be the correct choice. As I said above, money could be an issue if the Jets are determined to run it back with the same crew but keeping both defensemen is far from impossible.
Since I just mentioned the Salary Cap a bunch of times in the last section, it might be time to dig into the numbers to see where things stand as we head towards free agency. The Winnipeg Jets have a minimum of 2 forward spots, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender spots to add in order to have 22 out of 23 NHL rosters slots filled, with $14,127,976 in salary cap space to get the job done. When you consider that all three of Sean Monahan, Dylan DeMelo, & Brenden Dillon could fall in the $4 to $5.5M/year range, you start to see why Laurent Brossoit’s return is highly unlikely without the GM making deep cuts. Luckily, Cole Perfetti isn’t arbitration-eligible this season, so that makes it easier to keep his number lower, especially on a bridge deal and re-signing guys like David Gustafsson/Logan Stanley/Ville Heinola also would cost a fairly low amount to fill some of the spots. Ideally, Chevy would be able to re-sign one or two of his top three priorities before free agency starts, but I am not sure how likely that is.
When it comes to cost-cutting measures, I see Cheveldayoff having a bunch of options available to him. As previously discussed, trades involving either of Connor or Ehlers would free up a minimum of $6M in cap space, while also creating one more forward spot to fill. Then there are more minor incisions, like the potential to relace Mason Appleton’s $2.167M/yr salary with a cheaper option or maybe save a bit more by shifting Alex Iafallo’s $4M/yr (both players entering final year of their contracts). The other two options, and in my opinion more ideal, include a pair of defenders on the final year of their deals – Neal Pionk & Nate Schmidt. I am not sure that Winnipeg would be able to move Nate without paying a fairly steep price, but even if they had to retain some salary it would be worth it to shed some of his $5.95M/yr contract. A buy out is the final option, which would save the Jets $4.33M this season but ultimately cost them $1.617M in 2025-26 too. Pionk makes slightly less than Schmidt ($5.875M), but also likely has more value in the eyes of opposing GM’s so maybe easier to move. I certainly don’t expect much of a return if Chevy surprises me with the move, but it would definitely be welcome to many a Jets fan. Buying out Pionk is a bit more costly as well, with $2M cap penalties for the next 2 seasons. As the Vegas Golden Knights often show, the cap is never really a true roadblock so if Cheveldayoff wants to get aggressive (unlikely), he certainly can do so.
Now would be the perfect time in the article to look at the Free Agency options, but really with the chance that many expected UFAs re-sign with their current teams before it even begins and the fact that players will be switching teams at the draft…we might as well wait until after that happens to have a clearer picture of Winnipeg’s cap space/roster and who is truly available on the market.
Before I end Part Two of our review, I will skip ahead to the hot summer days to talk about the potential of any Winnipeg Jets going to arbitration this season. While it is possible, none of the three players who qualify for that right will receive a bounty via that route, so it seems fairly unlikely (David Gustafsson, Logan Stanley, & Oskari Salminen). With the disappointing news that Rutger McGroarty opted to return for another season in Michigan, the Jets do have a couple prior draft selections to consider signing to their entry level contracts (ELC).
Connor Levis was a 7th round pick in 2023 after almost putting up a point per game in the WHL with Kamloops, but saw his production drop this year (.846 pts/gm) as he was traded mid-season to Vancouver. The 6’2″ right winger did add 3 assists in 5 playoff games and could be an option for the Manitoba Moose’s forward ranks in 2024-25.
The other player exploded offensively in the OHL and is still playing in that league’s championship series as we speak. That is Winnipeg’s 5th round selection in 2023, Jacob Julien of the London Knights. The 6’4″ center racked up points in the league beneath the OHL in his draft year (41 pts in 22 games), but his impact wasn’t the same in the O (16 pts in 40 games). This year, Julien has transitioned to the tougher competition and amassed an impressive 29 goals and 78 pts in 67 regular season contests (1.16 pts/gm). The 19 yr old has kept it up as a secondary scoring threat for the Knights (to Toronto’s Easton Cowan’s 24 pts in 15 gms) in the post-season, pocketing 8 goals and 8 assists in 15 matches. Jacob will turn 20 yrs old in time to qualify for the AHL next season and would certainly be an interesting add to an already youthful squad. It was nice to see Colby Barlow get a taste of AHL play late this season, but it is too bad that he will have to return to the OHL for one season (just because he was born 45 days too late).
NEXT in Part Three:
The final edition of the Off-Season Road Map should be done a day or two after this year’s NHL Entry Draft, so be sure to check back around then. As always, greatly appreciate any feedback, differing opinions, or brand new suggestions you all have…so be sure to make a comment to keep the Winnipeg Jets’ talk going…
As we travel with the Winnipeg Jets through the upcoming off-season, a big date on Kevin Cheveldayoff’s calendar approaches as we near July 1st. This not only represents the official start date of the 2024-25 National Hockey League season, but it’s also the beginning of the free agent frenzy. However, before we get to that, Chevy has a few more things to get done….
Lets start off with the Jets’ pending seven restricted free agents (RFAs) and see whether Winnipeg’s GM will make them qualifying offers (QOs) to retain their rights. Should an NHL team not qualify a RFA player without a contract, they become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) on July 1st. When an NHL team does offer a qualify offer, it guarantees the player of a 1 year contract at a rate slightly higher than their previous salary should they accept it. Often, the QO is just a way to retain the player’s rights while they negotiate a similar or longer contract over the off-season and if that doesn’t work, things can go to arbitration to decide the yearly amount.
The Jets’ pending RFAs fall into three categories: Low, Medium, and High importance decisions. The Low group contains two players that I don’t expect to be re-signed by Winnipeg – goalie Oskari Salminen & defender Artemi Kniazev. Both players started last season with the Manitoba Moose, but ended up finishing in another league due to poor performances (ECHL & KHL respectively). Salminen is a big bodied goaltender that has shown some promise, but consistency has been beyond his grasp and the 25 yr old will likely be squeezed out of the Manitoba Moose depth chart by two other goaltenders already under contract for next season (Thomas Milic & Dominic DiVincentiis). Kniazev never really panned out since coming over from the San Jose Sharks after 28 pts in 61 game season with their AHL affiliate. The smooth skating Russian was a disaster in his own end and when the offense dried up too (5 assists in 20 AHL games) he was loaned to a KHL team (0 pts in 18 games). Since Kniazev is only 23 yrs old, Winnipeg does have the option of offering a qualifying offer to retain his rights indefinitely but not really sure it’s worth it.
The Medium group consists of two players who receive a lot of criticism from the fans, so some may see the calls as no-brainers. But I would probably rate it closer to a coin-flip in my mind…it could go either way when it comes to David Gustafsson & Logan Stanley. I’ve always had a soft spot for Gus due to watching him for years on the Manitoba Moose, where he scored a goal approximately every 3 games and gave me hope Winnipeg had found a grinding bottom sixer with a decent amount of scoring touch. Unfortunately, it hasn’t really worked out for Gustafsson on the offensive side so Chevy has to decide when the defensive & face-off abilities the 24 yr old Swede has are enough to keep him around as a depth option. For what its worth, I would opt to keep him as there isn’t a shortage of contract slots available (32 of 50 used as of July 1st). Then we get to the polarizing Stanley, the massive defenseman who can excite fans with big bodychecks but also have them slapping their foreheads in frustration with erratic play in his own end. Big Stan will be 26 yrs old later this month and I believe will qualify for UFA status next off-season…should Chevy let him get there a year early? Unless he can include him in some sort of draft day package, I would say yes. But since Winnipeg has allowed the logjam on the left side to go on for years, who really knows?
The High importance category include the three remaining players, who were all drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds. The youngest of the group is 22 yr old Cole Perfetti, who has put up 75 pts in 140 NHL games (0.536 pts/gm) since being drafted 10th overall in 2020. Perfetti narrowly missed the 20 goal mark this season in what he will admit was a disappointing campaign, but as I mentioned in my earlier article the upside is too great for the Jets to let go. There is no doubt about Fetti being offered a qualifying offer (QO), more a matter whether his next contract will be a bridge or long-term deal. Leaning to a shorter term agreement, since Cole isn’t negotiating from a position of strength after an up & down year. Next up is a recently turned 23 yr old Ville Heinola, who seems to have been around forever after being selected with the 18th pick in the 2019 draft. Despite that feeling, the offensive lefty has only dressed for 35 NHL games (11 pts) over 5 seasons. Heinola has performed well with the Moose though, putting up 102 pts over 152 AHL games (0.67 pts/gm) and a +35 rating. Once again, I droned on about the Finn’s upside in Part One during the discussion about whether to trade him for a draft pick, so I won’t repeat myself. A QO will definitely occur but I don’t see the Jets or the defenseman going longer than a 1 yr deal at this point….another prove it season before Ville can potentially cash in with a longer deal. The final player is another 23 yr old defenseman, this time in the form of righty Simon Lundmark. The Swede has played three campaigns with Manitoba and put up 48 pts in 188 AHL games (0.255 pts/gm). While Lundmark will never be a flashy offensive threat from the back end, his defensive play along with his 6’2″ frame & right-handedness makes him worthwhile to keep around with a qualifying offer. Still probably a year away from being a potential 3rd pairing guy in the NHL, Simon will provide depth in the organization and help out the Moose next year.
Before Cheveldayoff lets July 1st creep up on him, he also has to decide if he wants to make a run at re-signing any of his 12 UFAs before the other NHL teams get in the mix. Once again we will use the same three categories as above and start off with the group that requires the least thought for the Jets’ GM. The Low importance group only has two players in it, Tyler Toffoli and Kristian Reichel. Despite giving up a 2nd & 3rd round pick for Toffoli and the fact that his scoring wasn’t that bad in a Jets’ jersey (0.611 pts/gm with Winnipeg compared to 0.721 pts/gm with New Jersey), the player never really seemed to gel very well. That combined with Tyler having no interest in re-upping in the Peg makes this an easy call for Chevy. Kristian Reichel exploded offensively for Manitoba and was a big part in their surge to qualify for the post-season as he put up career-high AHL numbers (23 G/42 Pts/70 GM). But he has taken the ball out of the GM’s hands by signing with the German league.
The Medium section is much larger, consisting of 6 players of varying importance. The first player is recently acquired defenseman Colin Miller (cost a 4th in 2026), who only got into 6 out of a possible 19 games with Winnipeg. While I didn’t think he looked all that impressive in the regular season, his one playoff appearance saw him take his game to another level. Possibly his usage by the coaching staff will make the 32 yr old defender refuse to consider another contract with the Jets, but if the franchise is determined to make some changes to their right side then a Miller signing might be the first clue. That being said, they could allow him to reach free agency and still keep the possibility of a new contract on the table. While I am all for altering the RHD personnel, I am uncertain whether Miller is part of the answer (though he certainly wouldn’t hurt as a 3rd RHD). The remaining five players all spent last season with the Manitoba Moose, so really are just depth decisions for management. As I mentioned earlier, the Moose likely already have two goalies signed for 2024-25, but a veteran tender could always be an option to help mentor them. Should that guy be Collin Delia? The masked man will be 30 yrs old next season and his numbers on a defensively-suspect Moose squad weren’t great (3.35 GAA/0.872 save %), but he definitely made some ten-bell saves over the season. Either way, it’s not a decision that Chevy needs to make before free agency begins, because I can’t see Delia’s phone ringing off the hook over the summer.
Moving on, the Jets now have to consider two depth defenders in Ashton Sautner and Kyle Capobianco. Starting off the easier call, Sautner is a Manitoba-born defenseman who has played the last two years with the Moose. While Winnipeg would likely be happy to offer him a contract with their affiliate, I don’t foresee them signing him to another big league deal. Capobianco is a whole different story though, as he is coming off an incredible campaign (12 goals, 54 pts, +29) to be named the AHL’s Most Outstanding Defenseman. Even though Capo will be 27 yrs old at the start of next season, he would have still been an RFA had he got into another 7 NHL games….some more fodder for the anti-Chevy crowd. As to re-signing Kyle, I would be all for it but I doubt he sees much opportunity on the left side on Winnipeg’s defense. My guess is he opts to test free agency, but playing in the city he had his most successful season may have some attraction too.
One of Cheveldayoff’s last off-season signings is next with Jeffrey Viel coming off his first season in a Moose uniform. While hardly thrilled with the signing at the time, Viel grew on me over the season as he became a key part of Manitoba’s energy line. The 27 yr old forward contributed offensively with 17 goals and 40 pts, but also wracked up 142 penalty minutes in 69 games. Veteran forwards are always needed in the minors and Winnipeg will have to decide whether Viel or the next guy we look at continue to provide value. That player is Jeff Malott, who has 4 campaigns with the Moose under his belt (82 G/157 Pts in 237 AHL games – 0.662 pts/gm). The power forward gets a lot of greasy goals and his production would be missed by Manitoba, but since he will be 28 to start the season there could be better options available. I would miss his clutch scoring and occasional scraps though.
Our final UFA category is the High section, which involves the players the Winnipeg Jets would most likely want to keep. All four of these guys could make our squad better in 2024-25, but the salary cap and overall direction of the team may stop the Jets from coming to an agreement. The newest player in Winnipeg of this group is Sean Monahan, who the Jets paid a 1st round draft pick to obtain from the Montreal Canadiens. The center will be 30 years old next year after his healthiest season in quite a while (83 games with 26 goals and 59 pts) and he was extremely effective in the bumper spot on the powerplay. There is an apparent hole at the 2C spot on the roster if the staff don’t see players like Vilardi or Lambert capable of filling that role, so the interest could certainly be there. Monahan indicated that he was interested in signing in a place where he can win, so if he means in the regular season he may consider the Jets in that category. I am torn on the call at this point, because I see it as blocking young Lambo but unless the team makes some alterations to its top six forward make up Mony might be the best call for next season’s success. Cost could be an issue for Winnipeg, but they have so many different ways to shed salary that I don’t think money will be a huge obstacle…unless someone is drastically willing to overpay him in free agency.
While dollars will be a consideration on all four of these players, it probably will impact the Jets’ ability to re-sign Laurent Brossoit the most. First, the goalie is coming off a splendid season (2.00 GAA/0.927%) so he deserves to get paid and second is that teams don’t tend to allocate much money for the backup spot when they are paying their starter $8.5M/yr. When you add the probability that Brossoit would like a shot at a starter’s role (or at least enough games to get his name on the Jennings trophy), make him the least likely of this group to be back in the Peg.
Our final two players are the defensemen Dylan DeMelo and Brenden Dillon, who each bring varying strengths to Winnipeg’s defensive core. DeMelo in my opinion is the key UFA for the Jets this off-season, but not solely due to his great season on the top pairing (31 pts & +46 rating). No, the main reason for that is our squad’s lack of NHL depth on the right side of the defense. While I am desperate for changes to the lower right-hand defensemen, there is no way the Jets will be able to fill both top spots so I believe they have to re-up the 31 yr old to at least give them one solid pairing at the top of the depth chart. For me the decision is more difficult when it comes to Dillon, mainly due to the fact that the Jets already have 2 out of 3 LHD spots filled (Morrissey/Samberg). However, the style the 33 yr old defender plays is very much needed by Winnipeg, so while re-signing Brenden would block younger options like Heinola there is an argument to be made that it would be the correct choice. As I said above, money could be an issue if the Jets are determined to run it back with the same crew but keeping both defensemen is far from impossible.
Since I just mentioned the Salary Cap a bunch of times in the last section, it might be time to dig into the numbers to see where things stand as we head towards free agency. The Winnipeg Jets have a minimum of 2 forward spots, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender spots to add in order to have 22 out of 23 NHL rosters slots filled, with $14,127,976 in salary cap space to get the job done. When you consider that all three of Sean Monahan, Dylan DeMelo, & Brenden Dillon could fall in the $4 to $5.5M/year range, you start to see why Laurent Brossoit’s return is highly unlikely without the GM making deep cuts. Luckily, Cole Perfetti isn’t arbitration-eligible this season, so that makes it easier to keep his number lower, especially on a bridge deal and re-signing guys like David Gustafsson/Logan Stanley/Ville Heinola also would cost a fairly low amount to fill some of the spots. Ideally, Chevy would be able to re-sign one or two of his top three priorities before free agency starts, but I am not sure how likely that is.
When it comes to cost-cutting measures, I see Cheveldayoff having a bunch of options available to him. As previously discussed, trades involving either of Connor or Ehlers would free up a minimum of $6M in cap space, while also creating one more forward spot to fill. Then there are more minor incisions, like the potential to relace Mason Appleton’s $2.167M/yr salary with a cheaper option or maybe save a bit more by shifting Alex Iafallo’s $4M/yr (both players entering final year of their contracts). The other two options, and in my opinion more ideal, include a pair of defenders on the final year of their deals – Neal Pionk & Nate Schmidt. I am not sure that Winnipeg would be able to move Nate without paying a fairly steep price, but even if they had to retain some salary it would be worth it to shed some of his $5.95M/yr contract. A buy out is the final option, which would save the Jets $4.33M this season but ultimately cost them $1.617M in 2025-26 too. Pionk makes slightly less than Schmidt ($5.875M), but also likely has more value in the eyes of opposing GM’s so maybe easier to move. I certainly don’t expect much of a return if Chevy surprises me with the move, but it would definitely be welcome to many a Jets fan. Buying out Pionk is a bit more costly as well, with $2M cap penalties for the next 2 seasons. As the Vegas Golden Knights often show, the cap is never really a true roadblock so if Cheveldayoff wants to get aggressive (unlikely), he certainly can do so.
Now would be the perfect time in the article to look at the Free Agency options, but really with the chance that many expected UFAs re-sign with their current teams before it even begins and the fact that players will be switching teams at the draft…we might as well wait until after that happens to have a clearer picture of Winnipeg’s cap space/roster and who is truly available on the market.
Before I end Part Two of our review, I will skip ahead to the hot summer days to talk about the potential of any Winnipeg Jets going to arbitration this season. While it is possible, none of the three players who qualify for that right will receive a bounty via that route, so it seems fairly unlikely (David Gustafsson, Logan Stanley, & Oskari Salminen). With the disappointing news that Rutger McGroarty opted to return for another season in Michigan, the Jets do have a couple prior draft selections to consider signing to their entry level contracts (ELC).
Connor Levis was a 7th round pick in 2023 after almost putting up a point per game in the WHL with Kamloops, but saw his production drop this year (.846 pts/gm) as he was traded mid-season to Vancouver. The 6’2″ right winger did add 3 assists in 5 playoff games and could be an option for the Manitoba Moose’s forward ranks in 2024-25.
The other player exploded offensively in the OHL and is still playing in that league’s championship series as we speak. That is Winnipeg’s 5th round selection in 2023, Jacob Julien of the London Knights. The 6’4″ center racked up points in the league beneath the OHL in his draft year (41 pts in 22 games), but his impact wasn’t the same in the O (16 pts in 40 games). This year, Julien has transitioned to the tougher competition and amassed an impressive 29 goals and 78 pts in 67 regular season contests (1.16 pts/gm). The 19 yr old has kept it up as a secondary scoring threat for the Knights (to Toronto’s Easton Cowan’s 24 pts in 15 gms) in the post-season, pocketing 8 goals and 8 assists in 15 matches. Jacob will turn 20 yrs old in time to qualify for the AHL next season and would certainly be an interesting add to an already youthful squad. It was nice to see Colby Barlow get a taste of AHL play late this season, but it is too bad that he will have to return to the OHL for one season (just because he was born 45 days too late).
NEXT in Part Three:
- Free agency….what are the holes the Jets need to fill? What is out there and who could the Winnipeg possibly land?
- Winnipeg Jets’ organizational depth chart
The final edition of the Off-Season Road Map should be done a day or two after this year’s NHL Entry Draft, so be sure to check back around then. As always, greatly appreciate any feedback, differing opinions, or brand new suggestions you all have…so be sure to make a comment to keep the Winnipeg Jets’ talk going…
